theoretical situation

NL200, 6 handed table, you are delt JJ on BB. Lagg with 50bb opens for 5x from MP, you cover him. You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF. He will bet 2/3 of the pot every time he hits A or K (lets not count flush draws for simplicity) and 2/3 of the pot 75% of the time when he misses. If the flop is blanks we CR AI (if possible) and we fold if he hits (and we dont).

Do you make the +EV play PF or go after him on later streets?

Originally Posted by Pingviini

Do you make the +EV play PF or go after him on later streets?

If you know his exact hole cards you should call with any 2 and wtfpwn him on the flop.

Thats what I was thinking. If you really know his hole cards then see the flop and find out if one of his overcards hits. Then outplay him. That is a much higher EV play then you are getting by pushing all in and taking your small edge. Less variance too.

Don't push small edges so strongly, bankrolls are not large enough to sustain strings of losses.

If you know his hole cards, do what the previous posters suggested and wtfpwn postflop.

stop and go = much safer. why give him the extra two streets to make his hand? see a flop and make him play poker with you. his all in pf call is easy, and lets him off the hook. so long as isolation is not an issue i like the smooth call.

pair to overcards is not a coinflip if you take away the turn and river.

im not convinced a 50bbs stack should be all in preflop with AK unless he is absolutly certain opp is playing for stacks on QQ OR less.
But on that note if JJ has any type of % advantage here preflop i want to play for stacks with JJ vs AK at every oppertunity. I don want to raise all in on the flop when we are effectivly playing for 15-20bbs. If i have an edge i want to play a big pot... if hes prepared to with the worst of it.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jd 962394 56.20 741581 43.31 8329 0.49 0.564
As Kd 741581 43.31 962394 56.20 8329 0.49 0.436

poooosh and gambool.....

I like the above idea.

Havn't done any calculations (may later when I'm not so busy), but my first impression was peeling off those first three cards was surely the better play. If AK only loses a c-bet (and only 2/3 the time) when it is behind, I'm not so sure though.

Don't push small edges so strongly, bankrolls are not large enough to sustain strings of losses.

Getting JJ all-in preflop against AKo is a HUGE edge. If you would pass up that opportunity, you need to move down in stakes.

If you know his hole cards, do what the previous posters suggested and wtfpwn postflop.

Like I said before, I'm probably leaning in this direction, but not for the reason you cited above.

Consider... (just ignore blinds/rake for simplicity's sake)

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.1491 % 42.95% 00.20% { AKo }
Hand 2: 56.8509 % 56.65% 00.20% { JJ }

Also for simplicity's sake, let's say we are playing NL100 with 100bb stacks.

Both are all-in. Pot is $200. AKo has 43% equity. JJ has 57% equity. =

AKo has $86 equity.
JJ has $114 equity.

Run this simulation 1000 times. Still think it's a small edge?


edit: can't type

Originally Posted by Lukie

Getting JJ all-in preflop against AKo is a HUGE edge. If you would pass up that opportunity, you need to move down in stakes.

...or play tourney poker.

It's not that big of an edge really.. not that I wouldn't make the bet, but if we look at some other match-ups:

overcards vs lower pp: 45-55, or closer to 48-52 in actual simulations.. this is usually considered a 'cointoss'. And JJ vs AKo has somewhat better odds, but not too much.

Huge I'd call:
AK vs AQ which is 3-1
AA vs AK which is 13-1

Ofcourse I'd take the 44-56 bet too.. if I know for sure the odds are in my favor then all-in is fine for me. But I'd rather have one of the match-ups above which are REALLY huge imho.

I just look for the easier decisions.

In the JJ vs. X scenerio, we need to consider:
Does villain have: AK, QQ, KK, AA?
Or does villain push TT, 99, etc.?

I don't push 50bb pre-flop unless I have AA or KK. Calling such a bet makes for half decent reads, I suggest not multi-tabling if you are going to call with JJ.

Originally Posted by jackvance

But I'd rather have one of the match-ups above which are REALLY huge imho.

It's not an either-or kinda problem. You're presented with a proposition and it's gamble or fold.

Camping Aces/Kings to pushing pre-flop works against stupid players, but smarter players and the blinds fustrate this approach as you move up.

Bank, the assumption was that you know the other player has AKo, and you have JJ.

I agree that in most cash game situations, even at 50bb deep, getting it AI with JJ is bad.

Originally Posted by Lukie

Even at 50bb deep, getting it AI with JJ is bad.

LMAO, you've seen me call it all off 40bb deep with AJo and have the best of it.

exactly. push too hard and youre only going to find queens or better. and for the record, i DONT think AKo (or suited for that mattr) should be all in pf in the above scenario. i only meant that for the lagro player described, getting his money all in preflop is a much easier thing to justify than on a missed flop. obviously.

Originally Posted by BankItPayette

Don't push small edges so strongly, bankrolls are not large enough to sustain strings of losses.

If you know his hole cards, do what the previous posters suggested and wtfpwn postflop.

This is horrible, I have a big bankroll for my stakes and I take almost whatever edge I can find. The question here is how I get the biggest edge. How are you guys going to do this wtfpwning if flop comes 9 high? Give me some lines. I really dont see any other way than CRing AI but perhaps we might want to call and then CR AI on turn if we just knew he was aggressive enough to follow through on turn.

I just look for the easier decisions.

In the JJ vs. X scenerio, we need to consider:
Does villain have: AK, QQ, KK, AA?
Or does villain push TT, 99, etc.?

I don't push 50bb pre-flop unless I have AA or KK. Calling such a bet makes for half decent reads, I suggest not multi-tabling if you are going to call with JJ.

I like easy decisions too but sometimes the harder decisions have bigger EV. We dont need to consider AA or 99 because we "know" that he has AK here. I push with lesser cards than AA when it's only 50BB given certain circumstances. (like a loose raiser, a caller or two and hence a lot of dead money)

If we get AI PF with JJ vs AK we net about 5bb, when we call PF we lose 5bb 1/3 of the time etc. (etc = I dont know how to count the reast).

and yes, I pushed with JJ and he called with AKo.

Originally Posted by Pingviini

NL200, 6 handed table, you are delt JJ on BB. Lagg with 50bb opens for 5x from MP, you cover him. You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF. He will bet 2/3 of the pot every time he hits A or K (lets not count flush draws for simplicity) and 2/3 of the pot 75% of the time when he misses. If the flop is blanks we CR AI (if possible) and we fold if he hits (and we dont).

Do you make the +EV play PF or go after him on later streets?

I'm going to assume blinds and rake cancle out here. Even if that logic is flawed, I'm just going to ignore them anyway. Because I can.

Let's start with the quite simple calculation of preflop equity if we are both allin. AKo has 43%; JJ has 57%.

50bb stacks at NL200 means $100 each. Which (like my 100bb@NL100 example) means JJ would have $114 equity and AKo has $86 equity.

We (JJ) have +$14 expectation here.

I have to leave in literally about 2 minutes, so I'm going to do the best I can in that time on the other situation. You say he bets 2/3 pot when he hits A/K, I'm also going to assume he does the same if he hits otherwise (ie nut straight, t2p, trips top kicker, etc.) I'm also going to assume that if he hits TPTK or better, he will call the c/r allin, and fold if he doesn't. Ugh ok, I gotta go, I'm going to continue this analysis when I come back, if somebody hasn't already.

well youre lucky then, imo. i think youre just forcing people to make good folds. youll never know EXactly what opp has. if you panic AI every time with a good starter, youre losing value in the long run, notwithstanding the occasional bad call. what if opp has AJ or 99? these are very good situations to take flops with...

Originally Posted by Pingviini

Originally Posted by BankItPayette

FOLD...err...RAISE...err..but it's not at least Kings.

This is horrible

Bank is on a roll today.

Originally Posted by Pingviini

NL200, 6 handed table, you are delt JJ on BB. Lagg with 50bb opens for 5x from MP, you cover him. You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF. He will bet 2/3 of the pot every time he hits A or K (lets not count flush draws for simplicity) and 2/3 of the pot 75% of the time when he misses. If the flop is blanks we CR AI (if possible) and we fold if he hits (and we dont).

Do you make the +EV play PF or go after him on later streets?

Simplified model where we stack him if A or K flops with a J but he folds to flop check raise when no A or K hits.

Push PF:
EV: +7BB (from lukie)

Call PF: (From memory so these percentages might not be totally acc but it should be quite close)
-Flop has A or K but no J ~ (27%) EV: -4BB (we check fold)
-Flop has A or K with J ~ (4%) EV: +51.5BB (we stack him)
-Flop has no A or K ~ (69%)
EV: ~13.5BB when he continuation bets (75%) (we checkraise he folds)
EV: approx 5.5BB when he doesnt (we bet turn he folds, made it 5.5BB instead of 6.5BB to allow for A or K on turn) (25%)
EV for this situation: 0.75x13.5+0.25x5 = 11.5

Total EV = 0.27x(-4) + 0.04x(51.5) + 0.69x11.5 = 8.915BB

So calling PF is better according to this simple model.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Lukie

Even at 50bb deep, getting it AI with JJ is bad.

LMAO, you've seen me call it all off 40bb deep with AJo and have the best of it.

Heh, you are right sir.

I guess I should say, even at 50bb deep, getting it AI with JJ *against somebody who isn't a donkey* is bad.

Agree or no?

Also note that your PFR range is significantly bigger then mine.

Meh, really depends on the situation. Against the real gamblers, JJ is good against their range. Against a mid-stack that tries to play somewhat-ok, I think this deep you are usually only a little bit ahead or way behind.

Originally Posted by siknd

well youre lucky then, imo. i think youre just forcing people to make good folds. youll never know EXactly what opp has. if you panic AI every time with a good starter, youre losing value in the long run, notwithstanding the occasional bad call. what if opp has AJ or 99? these are very good situations to take flops with...

I said that this was a theoretical situation, "knowing" what the other guy has. I am not making the same play against solid villains. I dont "panic" with hands like this. I was making a +ev play, I also happened to have another caller in actual situation but that is not important here. people stop bitching about some things like that and concentrate on the problem Also, game conditions in my 5max nl400 games are quite different from the games you may have used to..

Meh, really depends on the situation. Against the real gamblers, JJ is good against their range. Against a mid-stack that tries to play somewhat-ok, I think this deep you are usually only a little bit ahead or way behind.

I might even fold against some guys but not against our villain here. This is +Ev because we, as said many times, know what he has, AK! problem is that if there is a line that would be better than our smallish edge going AI PF. Arkana's calculations are good. thanks for that. (except that his raise was 5x, not 3x) is it correct to calculate our PF call to EV?

ok my math is f*ing awful.

so if we play the pot for a flop our ev is 9bbs against the 7bbs if we get it all in preflop?
ok

there is no effect thus that we play for larger amounts (in most circumstances if its all in preflop?)
Crucify me if im being dumb. im having one of those weeks...

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Lukie

Even at 50bb deep, getting it AI with JJ is bad.

LMAO, you've seen me call it all off 40bb deep with AJo and have the best of it.

Whoops, was only 25bb deep. Lol

POKERSTARS GAME #4078724653: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2006/02/24 - 00:37:24 (ET)
Table 'Dziban III' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Tom Chan 28 ($19 in chips)
Seat 2: DPMCG.55 ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 4: JBalls99 ($125.65 in chips)
Seat 6: Fnord ($137.15 in chips)
Seat 7: Lukie ($134.75 in chips)
Seat 9: Neutron Girl ($206.25 in chips)
Lukie: posts small blind $0.50
Neutron Girl: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Fnord [Jc Ah]
Tom Chan 28: calls $1
DPMCG.55: calls $1
JBalls99: folds
Fnord: raises $4 to $5
Lukie: folds
Neutron Girl: folds
Tom Chan 28: folds
DPMCG.55: raises $19.65 to $24.65 and is all-in
Fnord said, "AJ gl"
Fnord: calls $19.65
*** FLOP *** [3c Ts 7h]
*** TURN *** [3c Ts 7h] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [3c Ts 7h Jd] [Td]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DPMCG.55: shows [Th Qd] (three of a kind, Tens)
Fnord: mucks hand
DPMCG.55 collected $49.25 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $51.80 | Rake $2.55
Board [3c Ts 7h Jd Td]
Seat 1: Tom Chan 28 folded before Flop
Seat 2: DPMCG.55 showed [Th Qd] and won ($49.25) with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 4: JBalls99 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Fnord (button) mucked [Jc Ah]
Seat 7: Lukie (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Neutron Girl (big blind) folded before Flop

Heh, I remember that hand. It was during a stretch where you were getting it in ahead against short/mid stacks and they just kept sucking out on your. fwiw, I felt pretty bad, but you still ended the session up very solidly. Here is one that made me laugh......

There were also a few more similar to these two. Heh, just realized hobojaws was here too, that is alibi from FTR. Didn't know that til just a little bit ago.

POKERSTARS GAME #4078945626: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2006/02/24 - 01:00:26 (ET)
Table 'Dziban III' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: sam121805 ($51.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Fnord ($137.70 in chips)
Seat 5: ryan77chuck ($12 in chips)
Seat 6: icedtea4 ($10.40 in chips)
Seat 7: Lukie ($152.40 in chips)
Seat 8: HoboJaws ($107.75 in chips)
Seat 9: StaRR187 ($82.20 in chips)
StaRR187: posts small blind $0.50
sam121805: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Lukieplaya [3d 6c]
Fnord: raises $2 to $3
ryan77chuck: folds
icedtea4: raises $7.40 to $10.40 and is all-in
Lukie: folds
HoboJaws: folds
StaRR187: folds
sam121805: calls $9.40
Willie856 joins the table at seat #4
Fnord: raises $127.30 to $137.70 and is all-in
sam121805: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d 6h Ah]
*** TURN *** [8d 6h Ah] [Ts]
*** RIVER *** [8d 6h Ah Ts] [Kc]
HenryFnord said, "KK"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Fnord: shows [Ks Kd] (three of a kind, Kings)
icedtea4: shows [Jc Qc] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
icedtea4 collected $30.15 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31.70 | Rake $1.55
Board [8d 6h Ah Ts Kc]
Seat 2: sam121805 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Fnord showed [Ks Kd] and lost with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 5: ryan77chuck folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: icedtea4 showed [Jc Qc] and won ($30.15) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 7: Lukie folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: HoboJaws (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: StaRR187 (small blind) folded before Flop

Originally Posted by Pingviini

Arkana's calculations are good. thanks for that. (except that his raise was 5x, not 3x) is it correct to calculate our PF call to EV?

EDIT: nvm, im an idiot. will edit my previous post

I have called 100bb with AQo against a total maniac once, I have also folded KK against solid guys with 100bb. "depends".

there is no effect thus that we play for larger amounts (in most circumstances if its all in preflop?)

I think there is, I just gotta have my morning coffee first and think about this more.

When arkana corrects his calculations we can continue this ev conversation.

Pingviini wrote:
Do you make the +EV play PF or go after him on later streets?


If you know his exact hole cards you should call with any 2 and wtfpwn him on the flop.

Just wanted to come back to this for clarification, the difference here is that we have JJ (not 2 cards) and we know that our push PF has positive EV, otherwise I naturally just call with any two if he has AK.

Is there zero chance he folds preflop? I didn't see the EV adjusted for for the % he folds

You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF.

would a small pf reraise on your part elicit a push from him?? if not, then this would seem like a way to build the pot a little, meaning his flop bet would be that much bigger. or does the fact that you have taken the lead in the hand minimize the chance that he will make a postflop bet?

you raise to 10x, he calls. he makes his 2/3 bet, leaving him with ~1/2 of his original 50bb stack. the CR AI is more likely to get called, while you are now a bigger favourite than you were in the pf push situation.

Originally Posted by Pingviini

You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF.

Unless you want to play the hand out for the fun of it, then it's an easy push if there is 100% chance he has AK and will call.

the increased ev or so it would seem comes from the fact that if we play the flop and JJ becomes no good, we minimise the amount we lose, which we cant do if we get it all in preflop. Yet, for when our hand is good vs AK we maximise our winnings because we can get opp to put more cash in with the worst hand, at which case we steal a bigger pot ith the better hand (or play those times where opp flops a hand and we flop a monster)
Thus i dont see how the preflop call should change thus if arkana's math is correct. Calling preflop minimises our lose but also means it improves the pot size we win as opp will standardly c-bet the flop even unimproved.
I think an interesting point raised by this hand, is just how bad it can be to c-bet every flop, especially every flop you have missed. Betting a pp into a board that has over cards might not effect this though?

Originally Posted by r8ed

Originally Posted by Pingviini

You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF.

Unless you want to play the hand out for the fun of it, then it's an easy push if there is 100% chance he has AK and will call.

you mean that it is +EV play? sure it is. We are just trying to find an even better line... with our assumptions arkana's calculations showed that calling and then CR is a better option (with a small margin though).

Anybody has even a better line than CR AI on non A/K flop?

Originally Posted by r8ed

Originally Posted by Pingviini

You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF.

Unless you want to play the hand out for the fun of it, then it's an easy push if there is 100% chance he has AK and will call.

Hahah thats like saying you should work at McDonalds for the rest of your life because you are making money there. Maybe there is a way to make more money?

Wendys?

I just can't get over the insanely precise read for pre and post flop play. If his cards are turned over then don't push. If there is a 1%+ that any of your reads are not dead on, then I think you have to factor it in.

perhaps we should have more of these _theoretical_ situations (as the title of the thread says) so that this kind of discussion could be avoided.. Not just: I raised with AA got played back went AI lost my stack was this play good kthxbye or should I call this bet here on river with my middle pair no reads on the opponent new to the table thanks- kind of threads. which are good, too.

I called a PF AI for 40bb yesterday with 99. Villain showed K7o ?????

Originally Posted by Pingviini

perhaps we should have more of these _theoretical_ situations (as the title of the thread says) so that this kind of discussion could be avoided.. Not just: I raised with AA got played back went AI lost my stack was this play good kthxbye or should I call this bet here on river with my middle pair no reads on the opponent new to the table thanks- kind of threads. which are good, too.

I know it's hypothetical. But even a hypothetical scenario should take into account a "my reads is 90% sure" when introducing an EXACT BB value to determine the best approach. It's like Harrington's 10% bluff rule. I'll stop replying. I wasn't trying to hose the thread - just trying to point out the uncertainty factor might be worth introducing.

in real life (tm) it would be worth thinking but giving that 10% different scenarios would make the calculations even harder. sorry for giving a rude answer but just so many answers here havent pointed to the actual question at all, which IMO was quite clearly presented.

I like theoretical situations.. sorry for hj'ing your thread above there ping.

r8ed- Arguing with the parameters set forth in a hypothetical situation is just.. errm......... nevermind.

Originally Posted by Lukie

r8ed- Arguing with the parameters set forth in a hypothetical situation is just.. errm......... nevermind.

Socrates would disagree. Sorry for pointing out that something may have been overlooked that could add to the discussion. I'll just post a hand history next time.

Originally Posted by arkana

Originally Posted by Pingviini

NL200, 6 handed table, you are delt JJ on BB. Lagg with 50bb opens for 5x from MP, you cover him. You know that he has AKo and will call if you go AI PF. He will bet 2/3 of the pot every time he hits A or K (lets not count flush draws for simplicity) and 2/3 of the pot 75% of the time when he misses. If the flop is blanks we CR AI (if possible) and we fold if he hits (and we dont).

Do you make the +EV play PF or go after him on later streets?

Simplified model where we stack him if A or K flops with a J but he folds to flop check raise when no A or K hits.

Push PF:
EV: +7BB (from lukie)

Call PF: (From memory so these percentages might not be totally acc but it should be quite close)
-Flop has A or K but no J ~ (27%) EV: -4BB (we check fold)
-Flop has A or K with J ~ (4%) EV: +51.5BB (we stack him)
-Flop has no A or K ~ (69%)
EV: ~13.5BB when he continuation bets (75%) (we checkraise he folds)
EV: approx 5.5BB when he doesnt (we bet turn he folds, made it 5.5BB instead of 6.5BB to allow for A or K on turn) (25%)
EV for this situation: 0.75x13.5+0.25x5 = 11.5

Total EV = 0.27x(-4) + 0.04x(51.5) + 0.69x11.5 = 8.915BB

So calling PF is better according to this simple model.

I don't know how I missed this post, but this is what I was going to get at. Seems good, if not overly simplistic. Esp taking into account things like nut straights flush draws, combo draws, boat vs trips, and an infinte amount of weird things that could happen. Still looks good though.

Originally Posted by r8ed

Originally Posted by Lukie

r8ed- Arguing with the parameters set forth in a hypothetical situation is just.. errm......... nevermind.

Socrates would disagree. Sorry for pointing out that something may have been overlooked that could add to the discussion. I'll just post a hand history next time.

who's this socrates guy? he sounds like a fool. is he any good at poker?