Test

Originally Posted by Penneywize

two reasons; one, we stand to potentially get value from a worse hand (dry board, we lack reads on villain etc. but it's obviously not inconceivable that he may call here) and two, alternatively, villain may fold out his equity in the hand with some probability.

That's right, but what gets at me is that Hero should hope for outcome 2).

So he bets and hopes that a worse hand folds.

Is that still a value bet?

You could always run a quick EV calculation (I'm not at home and so don't have pokerstove installed unfortunately) and figure out whether our expectation when villain calls is greater than when villain folds. I assume it is. Given this, being the risk-lovers that we are -- there's a log-utility argument somewhere that really doesn't apply here (but I strangely thought I'd mention it nonetheless?) -- we'd technically 'prefer' that the villain calls.

The thing that's important, to me, is that we made a correct bet on this flop. We can't control our villain's actions here; just know that we put him in a virtually impossible situation - largely thanks to our supposed hand-reading skills i.e. we know the villain's exact equity.

Anyhow, as to your bit about 'wanting the villain to fold worse'. As I pointed out, if the calculation comes out that our expectation from the villain calling is greater than that of his folding, this isn't actually true. But let's assume, for whatever reason, that that is not the case; that we have a greater expectation from his folding. There are multiple ways for this to be true i.e. his equity is higher than 24%, the potsize is large enough and he has so little left behind that even a small amount of equity is good enough to call, etc. The reason we are wanting him to fold is that, while he is folding a worse hand, he is giving up whatever equity he does have.

rereading all of this, I realize this is probably just a long-winded way of saying that we would 'prefer' the villain takes whatever course of action that yields us the greatest expectation, but there you have it...