TAG or NIT

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

But it isn't just about profitability, it's about being as profitable as possible.

Not dwelling on the AK hand anymore, but generally speaking I think it is OK at these stakes to take all the fat value that is there for the picking, and pass on marginal or thin EV spots to lower overall variance.

Always trying to make the most profitable play, however thin value may be, will increase variance tremendously, and this may well be more detrimental to your overall situation and goals than the small extra EV.

Matter of fact, some EV spots are so thin that combined with the inevitable imperfection of reads and unpredictability of opponents at the micros, you might as well flip a coin.

With the low amount of hands I play, I consciously choose not to take spots which may slightly increase my win rate in the very long term while dramatically increasing my variance, for the simple reason that in the not-extremely-long term these plays may well translate into pretty steep losses or extended break even periods. Play around with this to see how badly variance is the enemy of the low volume player:

ev++ Poker Tools :: Poker Variance Simulator

Originally Posted by daviddem

Not dwelling on the AK hand anymore, but generally speaking I think it is OK at these stakes to take all the fat value that is there for the taking, and pass on marginal or thin EV spots to lower overall variance.

I'm not disputing whether it's 'OK' or not, because it clearly is, I'm simply stating it's not best. And that it doesn't just come down to profitability. While passing on marginal or thin spots that are profitable for the sake of reducing variance isn't really a bad thing, the goal of poker is to make as much as possible. And at microstakes, especially 2nl, it's also to improve as a player and begin fixing the numerous leaks you have in your game. While tightening up will minimize losses should you make mistakes (while also reducing profits since you are missing out on profitable spots), it would be at the expense of learning and growing, which as stated I think it hugely important at 2nl.

Also, given the overall terrible nature of the player pool a lot of spots that arise that are marginal/thin (especially with regards to value) might be a bit more +EV than you expect due to just how often they make very large mistakes (and surprise us with the hands they call with).

Also, and I could be wrong, given the very high attainable winrates at microstakes, the negative variance assumed by 'marginal' spots can't be that much a hinderance on overall variance. Given we would be profiting so much in other areas, we should be able to take just a hint of marginality even if it does produce a bit more swings, well because we will be so far in the black anyways.