Quote Originally Posted by salsa4ever
a raise fold situation if ever there was one

your problem is you're either flipping or in deep shit. Think about your opponent's likely holdings.

1. Something like AcKd
2 overcards with a flush draw. You're about 50/50

2. Something like QdQs
Overpair. Youre fucked if they decide to play with you

3. Something like AcQc
Nut flush. You're done. Unlikely because would he really pot it?

4. Something like 9d9h
A set. You're in deep trouble

5. Something you beat. AhKh (2 overs), ThTd (worse overpair). You're about 75% to win against those hands

I hate to call because if you commit to calling 3 streets you'll lose heaps against the hands that beat you and win minimum against the stuff you beat (they would probably lay off). There are also too many cards that will freak you out on the turn or river.

If you raise to $21, then you might force an overpair with no club, or something in (5), to fold. Everything else will just push all in. Again, whether you call or fold you're in big big trouble. Therefore, given your opponent's range of 16/7 I would fold. I don't think it's a close decision either, but feel free to disagree.

The problem I have is that you're not actually beating hands like QQ or AK with one club which is probably the most likely holdings based on the action so far. With AA I would call because now there's a realistic range that you beat and you want to win the most against those hands while losing the least to the made flush or made set.
id just like to hijack here for a second..

i think this post by salsa has to be one of the best that i have seen so far in terms of clear analysis. i have major problems with this precise situation, post really helped me figure it out a bit more.

Back to the post, id be raise/folding here.