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-Ev
OK,
but when you do call with a small PP, you pay like 4BB's to see the flop every time. Over 100 hands - that's 400 BBS as investment.
You make a set or better 12% of the time, and with a proper bluffing ratio, you'll win 12% of the time regardless of how often your opponent - the raiser - will call your bets (assuming he never flops an over-set on you). This can be enuf against a weakling who may hand over all his chips to you when you hit.
BUT, if the raiser gets wise on your play, he'll not pay you off with a full stack with TPTK or 2p.
Say you flop your set and bet into the raiser - and he always folds. You don't get back the 4BB's you pay the other 88% of flops you miss.
Assuming pot-sized betting, and a 50% bluffratio - you'll in this case only win back 18*4BB = 72BB's. After having spent 400 for the provilege...
It does matter if you are in pos or not, assuming raiser always bets the pot if first to act and you reraise with sets and bluffs. Here it'd be something on the order of +180BB's - 400B's, so its better, but still -Ev.
If you always bet out or reraise regardless of what hits - you'll get played back at so often that it's very -Ev.
However, with one more caller - the relative initial investment decreases while the winnings remain the same (since it's always pot-sized bets). So overcalling - or being overcalled - with small pp's will pretty much always be +Ev.
just my two cents
choohowoo
roy3
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