Standard $5/$10 hand, play with me

Live $5/$10 $1k max.

We have $1.6k and a tight/passive image

UTG straddes (terrible, $800)
UTG+1 raises to $60 (tight/passive, $900)
MP calls ($1200 semi-loose/aggressive)
LP calls ($4.5k loose/aggressive)
We call in the BB with
UTG calls.

5 to the flop, ~$300 in the pot.

Flop is GIN! :Ah:

What's our play? Plan for the hand?

How does leading out for roughly 1/2 the pot sound to make it look like we are pricing ourselves into the nut draw (when In reality we already have it). Tight passive guy might not be able to let go of that ace if he has one, and Laggy guy might decide to try and push everyone out due to the draw and your donk bet.

Edit:
Wait..that may look suspicious if we have a tight/passive image and are all of a sudden leading out. But IMO someone who is tight/passive probably wouldn't lead out the nuts so that's why I'd lead here.

This play seems pretty easy no matter what the stakes. We've got the nuts with a big pot and plenty of players. Since one player has us covered, our goal is to get all of our stack in by the end of the hand. If no one had us covered, our goal would be to get the entire stack of the highest stack into the pot by the river. We will bet or raise the SB so that 20% of our stack $1590 gets in on the flop, 30% gets in on the turn, and 50% gets in on the river. That's $318, $477, and $795 - for simplicity we will do $300, $500, and $790. Normally when you try this play, the flop bet can be the make or break moment because you typically have to make a large over pot bet to accomplish getting 20% of your stack in. However, this situation is ideal because our first bet equals the pot size, so it will often be interpreted as value bet or even a steal. This helps conceal our motives. With so many players in the pot, it's doubtful at least someone won't come around for the ride. We just hope we get lots of callers, no paired board, and preferably no more hearts unless we think someone has the Queen of hearts and will pay us.

One caveat: if we get a lot of callers on the flop, the pot could get large enough to just go ahead and push it all in on the turn. If all 4 villains call our $300 bet, then shoving all-in is just 72% of the pot. With 3 callers our all-in is 86% of the pot and with 2 callers our all-in is just a little more than the pot. If we think we can get it in on the turn and get a caller or more, that's better than trying to get it done on the river.

EDIT: For the caveat.

I'd check/call the flop. There's four people to act after you and if everyone checks to MR. loose/aggressive in late position, he may go all in and try to buy the pot. If every checks on the flop, I'd bet the pot on the turn and hope I get enough callers to justifiy some more callers when I go all in on the river.

Yes, I already know I'm retarded. Please tell me what you actually did.

I give it away by giggling uncontrollably.

I checked figuring either the PFR would protect his hand or an aggro player would step into it. Maybe a mistake, probably close either way.

Flop checks through.

Turn is

I bet $200, folds to MP who slids a rack of yellow into the pot making it $500 flat.

What's his range? What's my play?

That's not a good turn card, but he didn't preflop raise so it's probably safe to say he doesn't have AA - maybe 88 or A5, but since he's slightly loose, I'd say AK, AQ, or maybe Ax are just as likely and if you're passive image and he's aggressive, he could be trying to push you off a hand with QQ, JJ, TT, or even air. I say shove.

I would have checked flop too.

Now I call, and I want to say c/c river. I really don't have a feel for how smart/aware/knowledgeable these players are. Seems like he should never be stacking off as a bluff, but maybe he has a smaller flush or AK/A8 for a good 2pair. Hard to put him on just 88/A5 and seems unlikely he'd call a push with anything worse, except maybe QhJh I guess.

Originally Posted by Jason

he could be trying to push you off a hand with QQ, JJ, TT, or even air. I say shove.

Think about what you just said.

suited connectors maybe be in there as well, 45s, 56s, 57s etc. Given his laggy play I would have to guess his raising range here would be pretty wide, I don't think shoving back is a good idea though because given your tight passive image, your likely to only get called when you're behind. Call turn and c/c river to get more value out of your hand when villian has worse than the flush.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

don't think shoving back is a good idea though because given your tight passive image, your likely to only get called when you're behind. Call turn and c/c river to get more value out of your hand when villian has worse than the flush.

I disagree.

If I flat his raise (which is serious buisness in this game despite the out-of-control pre-flop pot), he's checking a lot of his worse hands behind.

I dont think flop checking through is terrible. We still stand a good chance of getting our stack in unless a 4th heart comes (or that could help us anyway).

If we flat the $500 we now have a $1200 pot with $650 effective behind. Tough spot really, if he has a draw we want to raise turn, if he has TP we dont want to look too strong. If he has a boat we lose it all anyway. I probably just put the rest in, if we think he'll call with TP or draws.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

don't think shoving back is a good idea though because given your tight passive image, your likely to only get called when you're behind. Call turn and c/c river to get more value out of your hand when villian has worse than the flush.

I disagree.

If I flat his raise (which is serious buisness in this game despite the out-of-control pre-flop pot), he's checking a lot of his worse hands behind.

So should we c/r or just c/c the turn and shove the river

What's his range? His hand is absurdly well defined.

Originally Posted by Fnord

What's his range? His hand is absurdly well defined.

You're suggesting a fold right? Because it doesn't make sense for him to raise you with anything else. You've been tight/passive, so a bet from you must mean business.

Put him on a range and do the math.

Alright not saying this range is exactly the most accurate, and it might be too light or too heavy, but anyway here's how you hold up against it:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.299% 26.30% 00.00% 162 0.00 { KhTh }
Hand 1: 73.701% 73.70% 00.00% 454 0.00 { 88, 55, A5s, 7h6h, AcQh, AdQh, AsQh, A5o }

Ok now there was $300 in the pot on the flop. You bet $200 on the turn making the pot $500. Villian raises your bet to $500 (making the pot $800), leaving you $300 more to call into an $800 pot.

$300/$800=.375. We have less than 37.5% equity in the pot so I think we should fold. There's still another street of play though which sort of complicates things, and we obviously have 0 fold equity by shoving. Plus our hand stands no chance to improve, whereas our opponents can.

Please carve this up so I can learn from it I think I made some mistakes and I also think I'm missing something, thanks.

Most of those hands bet the flop a large % of the time even if you adjust for some really absurd live poker slow-play.

Also there is a lot of Xh Yh in his range.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Most of those hands bet the flop a large % of the time even if you adjust for some really absurd live poker slow-play.

Also there is a lot of Xh Yh in his range.

Do you think we could rule out villian flopping a set because given that he is fairly agg, it is probable he would have bet a set with the 3-flush flop being there.

Could we put him on something like 7h6h,Th9h,QhJh-Qh9h and mayyybe AxQh? Are these the types of hands he will flat call a preflop raise in postion with? And do you think complete air is in his range at all or is this raise certainly for value.

just shove, if he has a boat it's a cooler since his range is like SO MANY worse flushes

I don't see how AA, 88, or 55 could check this flop, now do I see AA not 3-betting pre. After the flop checks through, I would think he would raise the turn with KK-TT, thinking that since you checked the flop you don't have an A. I guess the other possibility is he flopped a flush, but I'm having a hard time figuring out what he could have since he can't have the Ah or Kh. I guess some suited connectors, maybe QJh?

Either way, I don't put him on a full house because the flop checked through. As for the action, I probably shove because I have pee in my pants from my post-flop excitement and I want to go change asap.

It doesn't really make sense to check the flop with a babyflush though either. Villian could get value out of the nut flush draw, any Ax type hand, and also sets. So IMO checking the flop with a low flush is almost as bad as checking it with a set. Should I be thinking differently here? I usually bet out low flushes in spots like this, could it be a leak.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

It doesn't really make sense to check the flop with a babyflush though either. Villian could get value out of the nut flush draw, any Ax type hand, and also sets. So IMO checking the flop with a low flush is almost as bad as checking it with a set. Should I be thinking differently here? I usually bet out low flushes in spots like this, could it be a leak.

I was thinking along the same lines, which is why I was surprised to see fnord say that a lot of villain's range here is XhYh.

Fnord, what makes you say that a lot of non-nut flushes are in his range? Why on earth would anyone check a flopped non-nut flush 5-way? Even if he has the Q high flush, I would still think it would be wrong to give 4 other people a free card here. If nobody has the Kh, a 4th heart on the turn is probably going to halt action anyway, and if someone does have it you're obviously f'ed. So it seems to me the flop would be the best time to try and get your money in with a non-nut flush.

P.S. I really like analyzing a hand one street at a time like this. Very cool format for a post, and a very cool hand.

you forget that live games are fishy as hell so they'd check both a set and a flush on this board
so I shove and he will have worse more than not
sometimes you'll get trips to call if he happened to check a 5

Originally Posted by RML604

Fnord, what makes you say that a lot of non-nut flushes are in his range? Why on earth would anyone check a flopped non-nut flush 5-way?

Really silly slow plays are common in live games. I think it's an effort to maximize the chance they'll play an exciting big pot after sitting around for hours (even if it means letting someone suck out to get there.)

Results: I lol shove, he calls pretty quickly, I fastroll.

River blanks, he says he had trips and mucks.