spotting bluffs

I changed this post from gabe theorem because he actually said the opposite. But this hand has some use so i'm might as well post it.

A lot of people see a post where someone calls down a bluff and they really don't understand what's going on. Just wanted to show you a common bluff that you can easily pick off more.

POKERSTARS GAME #9121100208: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/03/27 - 19:37:34 (ET)
Table 'Silke II' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Javanut ($231.25 in chips)
Seat 2: sugawolf17 ($185.75 in chips)
Seat 3: suave720 ($129 in chips)
Seat 4: HHHthegame88 ($223.60 in chips)
Seat 5: toska82 ($120.25 in chips)
Seat 6: redgrape ($218.50 in chips)
HHHthegame88: posts small blind $1
toska82: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Ah Js]
redgrape: raises $6 to $8
Javanut: folds
sugawolf17: folds
suave720: folds
HHHthegame88: folds
toska82: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [2c 9s 5d]
toska82: checks
redgrape: bets $12
toska82: calls $12

This could be a lot of hands, top pair, mid pair, bottom pair, overs, straight draws. stronger hands like two pair or a set would probably raise, but possibly not. alot of donks c/r a 9 here.
*** TURN *** [2c 9s 5d] [9c]
toska82: checks
redgrape: checks

this doesn't really tell me anything since he's probably checking every hand here since he's OOP. Although there is a slight possibility that a 9 would lead out.
*** RIVER *** [2c 9s 5d 9c] [Ks]
toska82: bets $48

Ok here's why this bet is so fishy. He makes a very strong bet. However, a hand like a pair of 5's or 2's would be scared of a K, those hands would not bet this strong here. a 9 would probably value bet, although it is definitely capable of this bet. A pair of kings probably doesn't make this bet either, although it could. I have like 1.9:1, i only need to win a little under 35% of the time. Making this an easy call.
redgrape is connected
redgrape: calls $48
*** SHOW DOWN ***
toska82: shows [7s 8s] (a pair of Nines)
redgrape: shows [Ah Js] (a pair of Nines - Ace kicker)

So there, i didn't waste a post.

Awesome. Nice to see you move up to, gl.

Too bad you got it backwards.

Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

Too bad you got it backwards.

lol i had a feeling...

He said the opposite, right?

This hand was golden after i completely spewed two streets.
hand from 6 months ago or so.
POKERSTARS GAME #7976248701: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/16 - 21:18:35 (ET)
Table 'Thuringia II' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: PistaBaci ($86.75 in chips)
Seat 2: redgrape ($107.65 in chips) .
Seat 3: Sniper6120 ($72.60 in chips)
Seat 4: ChiLAX32 ($125.15 in chips)
Seat 6: molswi47 ($227.15 in chips)
molswi47: posts small blind $0.50
PistaBaci: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Th Ts]
redgrape: raises $3 to $4
Sniper6120: calls $4
ChiLAX32: calls $4
molswi47: folds
PistaBaci: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kd 8c Qc]
redgrape: checks
Sniper6120: checks
ChiLAX32: bets $10
redgrape: calls $10 (HORRID)
Sniper6120: folds
*** TURN *** [Kd 8c Qc] [7s]
redgrape: checks
ChiLAX32: bets $10
redgrape: raises $30 to $40 (OMFG WHAT AM I DOING)
ChiLAX32: calls $30
*** RIVER *** [Kd 8c Qc 7s] [4s]
redgrape: checks
ChiLAX32: bets $71.15 and is all-in
suitedace28 joins the table at seat #5

But wait.... wtf is going on here? He just bet very little on two streets, and then he called a raise with that little left in his stack? WTF is going on here? If he had a hand he didn't want to get it all in with on the turn... Why does he want to get it all in now.
Roommate tells me: dude I'd call.
I make ballin call.


redgrape: calls $53.65 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ChiLAX32: shows [Tc 9c] (high card King)
redgrape: shows [Th Ts] (a pair of Tens)
redgrape collected $218.80 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $220.80 | Rake $2
Board [Kd 8c Qc 7s 4s]
Seat 1: PistaBaci (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: redgrape showed [Th Ts] and won ($218.80) with a pair of Tens
Seat 3: Sniper6120 folded on the Flop
Seat 4: ChiLAX32 (button) showed [Tc 9c] and lost with high card King
Seat 6: molswi47 (small blind) folded before Flop


Obviously that is an extreme example where it's arguable whether even i should call the river. But the reasoning is correct at least.

Here's some normal ones.

PokerStars GAME #8463661481: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/02/16 - 00:22:22 (ET)
Table 'Penelope II' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Dixon01 ($168.85 in chips)
Seat 2: IMSUPERCREAL ($127.40 in chips)
Seat 3: hdude22 ($210.75 in chips)
Seat 4: agentbond007 ($63.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Gnurulle ($99 in chips)
Seat 6: aznfella ($21.90 in chips)
Gnurulle: posts small blind $0.50
aznfella: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IMSUPERCREAL [6s 6h]
Dixon01: folds
IMSUPERCREAL: raises $2 to $3
hdude22: calls $3
agentbond007: folds
Gnurulle: calls $2.50
aznfella: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qc 3d Jc]
Gnurulle: checks
IMSUPERCREAL: bets $7
hdude22: calls $7 (he calls here, he's pretty loose so i suspect here prob some weak draw, J, Qx, underpair, or float)
Gnurulle: folds
*** TURN *** [Qc 3d Jc] [Ah]
IMSUPERCREAL: checks
hdude22: checks (here his range really doesn't change, I noted on him that he doesn't bluff his draws)
*** RIVER *** [Qc 3d Jc Ah] [4h]
IMSUPERCREAL: checks
hdude22: bets $16


But WTF? What hand bets pot here that isn't betting the turn? Surely this isnt for value, if he has 44 than i muck knowing i made a good call.



IMSUPERCREAL said, "wait.... what?"
IMSUPERCREAL: calls $16
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hdude22: shows [9c 7c] (high card Ace)
IMSUPERCREAL: shows [6s 6h] (a pair of Sixes)
IMSUPERCREAL collected $53.30 from pot

Common bluff spotting: The huge increase in bet size.

PokerStars Game #8810225510: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/09 - 01:01:26 (ET)
Table 'Anius II' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: redgrape ($133 in chips)
Seat 3: mongillo99 ($45.85 in chips)
Seat 4: How ill? ($195.15 in chips)
redgrape: posts small blind $0.50
mongillo99: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Kc Td]
How ill?: raises $2 to $3
redgrape: raises $7 to $10 (3 handed i raise here to be frisky)
mongillo99: folds
How ill?: calls $7 (he prob has a decent call range here.)
*** FLOP *** [4h Th Qc]
redgrape: bets $12
How ill?: calls $12 ( yeah a lot of hands)
*** TURN *** [4h Th Qc] [8s]
redgrape: checks
How ill?: bets $12 (ths bet is pretty weak, on a board like this i suspect its weak as he'd want to protect his hand, maybe something like JT or T9)
redgrape: calls $12
*** RIVER *** [4h Th Qc 8s] [3c]
redgrape: checks
How ill?: bets $45

Okay now this is a fishy bet. He was betting value the earlier street, no draw hit, and now suddenly he bets almost pot? I don't look like i have a great hand here, value with a Q would prob be something like $28, so easy call.



redgrape: calls $45
*** SHOW DOWN ***
How ill?: shows [Jh Kd] (high card King)
redgrape: shows [Kc Td] (a pair of Tens)
redgrape collected $158 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $159 | Rake $1
Board [4h Th Qc 8s 3c]
Seat 1: redgrape (small blind) showed [Kc Td] and won ($158) with a pair of Tens
Seat 3: mongillo99 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: How ill? (button) showed [Jh Kd] and lost with high card King


Inducing bluffs:
This guy was 16/14 over large sample, which is a really tight cold call range. I had a note he raised flops with sets.

PokerStars GAME #8800627108: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/08 - 14:28:43 (ET)
Table 'Celuta III' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Rim-K ($116.15 in chips)
Seat 2: dartmusa ($165.60 in chips)
Seat 3: redgrape ($99 in chips)
Seat 4: PokerChipKKD ($96.50 in chips)
Seat 5: criminal ($196.80 in chips)
Seat 6: Danpil ($104.10 in chips)
criminal: posts small blind $0.50
Danpil: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Ks Kc]
Rim-K: folds
dartmusa: folds
redgrape: raises $3 to $4
PokerChipKKD: calls $4
criminal: folds
Danpil: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qs Th 3h]
redgrape: bets $7
PokerChipKKD: calls $7 (Here I'm almost positive this is a low pp, i mean this just looks like k ill call and see what u got)
*** TURN *** [Qs Th 3h] [As]
redgrape: checks
PokerChipKKD: bets $18 (Here I check and I pretty much know this card couldn't have helped him, or it barely ever does, so im 90% sure hes bluffing)
redgrape: calls $18
*** RIVER *** [Qs Th 3h As] [9d]
redgrape: checks
PokerChipKKD: bets $40 (He falls for the trap and i pretty much insta call)
redgrape: calls $40
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PokerChipKKD: shows [6s 7s] (high card Ace) (Kind of surprising, but not too much)
redgrape: shows [Ks Kc] (a pair of Kings)
redgrape collected $136.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $139.50 | Rake $3
Board [Qs Th 3h As 9d]
Seat 1: Rim-K folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: dartmusa folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: redgrape showed [Ks Kc] and won ($136.50) with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: PokerChipKKD (button) showed [6s 7s] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 5: criminal (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Danpil (big blind) folded before Flop

so what about the fact that many pot sized river bets are starting to not be bluffs anymore?

Massimo/Iowa, thanks for the HH's. Its definitely helpful seeing HH's broken down into the logic and thought process on every street. I wish more people would do that.

Iowa - I agreed with a lot of your logic, but I'm not sure on the hand with KK. Why isn't AQ and KJ in villains range on that flop? I'd imagine AQ and KJ would bet the same way that villain did in that hand.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

so what about the fact that many pot sized river bets are starting to not be bluffs anymore?

These are all very recent...

Iowa - I agreed with a lot of your logic, but I'm not sure on the hand with KK. Why isn't AQ and KJ in villains range on that flop? I'd imagine AQ and KJ would bet the same way that villain did in that hand.

ISF's are kind of different then mine. His are a combo of two or three streets that don't make sense (well besides hand 2, which is very similar to mine except the scare card comes on the turn). Mine is just one. On hand 3 i doubt this guy just cold calls a bet with AQ... he'd do it with AT or A3 though. Also, ISF, is this a guy who raises A high FD's? because if he isn't than that A could have helped him easily.

But here's the point on hand 3 from ISF. With just a pair of Aces that'd be a very sick bet by him, because his hand isn't that strong and it probably isn't going to be called by anything that the opponent is beating. And since with most river bluffs you are getting at least 2:1, you don't have to win these everytime.

good post guys, thanks

Originally Posted by Massimo

On hand 3 i doubt this guy just cold calls a bet with AQ... he'd do it with AT or A3 though.

Yah I guess this depends strongly on reads. I'd cold call AQ top pair Q sometimes to an EP raiser, just because I know I'd only be folding out JJ/AK (worse hands) by raising. All better hands (KK/AA) are for sure sticking around. But yah, depends how aggro villain is.

A lot of these bluff reads are based on bet size, "why would he bet close to the pot in this spot, as played?" kinda reads. So if villain is betting smaller 2/3,3/4 pot on the river, are you more likely to fold even though you're getting better odds?

Originally Posted by griffey24

A lot of these bluff reads are based on bet size, "why would he bet close to the pot in this spot, as played?" kinda reads. So if villain is betting smaller 2/3,3/4 pot on the river, are you more likely to fold even though you're getting better odds?

Sometimes the reads are "why would he bet at all?" and even if it looks like a value bet you can call anyway.

Villian has been trying to run the table. He's 46/22/2. He's been betting every pot that looks ripe for the taking. He's also been betting his draws as well as his made hands.

An orbit or so earlier I took down a decent pot against him, and he didn't like it.

- stevethepom sitting in seat 1 with $141.86
- baonce sitting in seat 2 with $79.85
- Luka_Modric sitting in seat 3 with $39.09
- kolle2006 sitting in seat 4 with $29.85
- Parsifal sitting in seat 5 with $99.15 [Sitting out]
- New0rder sitting in seat 6 with $83.02 [Dealer]
- thejack3 sitting in seat 7 with $113.65
- HERO sitting in seat 8 with $102.45
- leebog sitting in seat 9 with $19.95
- Bergmeg sitting in seat 10 with $91.47

thejack3 posted the small blind - $0.50
HERO posted the big blind - $1.00
** Dealing card to HERO
leebog folded
Bergmeg folded
stevethepom folded
baonce folded
Luka_Modric folded
kolle2006 folded
New0rder folded
thejack3 raised - $3.50
HERO called - $3.50

** Dealing the flop
thejack3 bet - $4.00
HERO raised - $10.00
thejack3 called - $10.00

** Dealing the turn
thejack3 checked
HERO bet - $16.00
thejack3 called - $16.00

** Dealing the river
thejack3 bet - $30.00

Here are my thoughts. He fires from the button. Since he's been firing from all over the place it doesn't shock me. I thought about reraise, but misclicked due to multitabling.

Flop comes and he bets his standard lead. I want to apply the pressure a bit so I raise. As expected he calls.

Turn gives him a potential flush, but since I'm drawing to the nut, so be it. He checks, which tells me he isn't happy about it, but he could be trapping. He calls my bet and I'm 99% sure he doesn't have the flush.

When the 7 hits the river he leads. So, I've reraised the flop, raised the turn when a flush comes and he leads on a card that MIGHT complete a straight?? I figure there is a 10% chance he has JJ+, 10% of a flush, 20% straight and the rest air.

I call and he shows

Originally Posted by griffey24

Iowa - I agreed with a lot of your logic, but I'm not sure on the hand with KK. Why isn't AQ and KJ in villains range on that flop? I'd imagine AQ and KJ would bet the same way that villain did in that hand.

It was pretty much an uber sick read based on the fact the opp never cold calls. So I narrowed down his range to low pp's (although it was off because he also played low sc's). And therefore i just induced.

Originally Posted by AHiltz

- stevethepom sitting in seat 1 with $141.86
- baonce sitting in seat 2 with $79.85
- Luka_Modric sitting in seat 3 with $39.09
- kolle2006 sitting in seat 4 with $29.85
- Parsifal sitting in seat 5 with $99.15 [Sitting out]
- New0rder sitting in seat 6 with $83.02 [Dealer]
- thejack3 sitting in seat 7 with $113.65
- HERO sitting in seat 8 with $102.45
- leebog sitting in seat 9 with $19.95
- Bergmeg sitting in seat 10 with $91.47

thejack3 posted the small blind - $0.50
HERO posted the big blind - $1.00
** Dealing card to HERO
leebog folded
Bergmeg folded
stevethepom folded
baonce folded
Luka_Modric folded
kolle2006 folded
New0rder folded
thejack3 raised - $3.50
HERO called - $3.50

** Dealing the flop
thejack3 bet - $4.00
HERO raised - $10.00
thejack3 called - $10.00

** Dealing the turn
thejack3 checked
HERO bet - $16.00
thejack3 called - $16.00

** Dealing the river
thejack3 bet - $30.00

I call and he shows

I actually don't really like this call. The river bet makes sense for a 6 or a flush because it's a very scary board and you probably aren't betting again. Idk, even with a good read this is a really tough call and one that you probably shouldn't make in the future.

most of these hands illustrate quite nicely the importance of making thinner value bets, a la NLHET&P. it gets calls from 'bluffcatchers" and makes it harder to read what you actually have.

Originally Posted by pgil

most of these hands illustrate quite nicely the importance of making thinner value bets, a la NLHET&P. it gets calls from 'bluffcatchers" and makes it harder to read what you actually have.

definitely great to get someone with thin bets like that. probably more and more important to be expert at in the higher levels.

but going along with the op, here's a hand.

villain is 30/25...very aggro all around, and semi loose pre flop.
also, he INSTA checked the flop, but then took time to bet the turn.
the way he played, he'd for sure bet, or at least think of betting a good hand or draw on the flop.
likely hands are 66, or a bluff, with a slight chance of Qx/99/JT...

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2./$4.
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $352
UTG+1: $478.45
Hero: $549.40
Button: $394
SB: $411.30
BB: $400

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 8 8
2 folds, Hero raises to $14, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: K Q 2 ($46, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: 6 ($46, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $33, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: 9 ($112, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $74, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $260
Button shows As 4s
Hero shows 8c 8s