1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?

I think I'm getting this right. It all suddenly got technical so I may have erred at times/all the time.

Betting range on flop: 66, TT+, AJ+, KJ+, KQ, T9s+, JTs+, Q9s+, K9s+, A9s+

Villain holds KQ on T65 rainbow

Pairs: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 66 (6)
Suited: AK, AQ, AK, AJ, AT, A9, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, QJ, Q9, T9 (52)
Unsuited: AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ (60)

118 combinations

Folding to everything under TPTK (That's right, right?) leaves us continuing with:

Pairs: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 66 (6)
Suited: AT, KT, QT, JT, T9 (16)
Unsuited: (0)

22 combinations

22/118 = 18.6%
Folding = 81.4%

Very vulnerable to the pot raise.



2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?

Betting 5bb into the 7.5bb pot = 12.5bb pot
Villain calling 5bb = 17.5bb pot
Check the turn
Villain bets 2/3 of the pot = ~12bb
Pot = ~19.5 bb
cost to call = ~12bb

Turn = T65J

Assuming we're betting our turn hand from Exercise 1 we play:

Pairs: JJ, TT (2)
Suited: AJ, AT, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT (28)
Unsuited: AJ, KJ (24)

Total combinations = 54

54/118 = 45.8%
Folding = 54.2%

Villain's float on the turn is not immediately profitable

One thing I found interesting when working out what bet size villain would need in order to make the bluff profitable, was that the smaller the bet, the more profitable the bluff. A half-pot bet was profitable down to around 52% fold rate, and a quarter pot bet down to 43%. Of course, lower bets result in hands becoming more viable with worse odds. A quarter-pot bet by the villain would make flush draws and open ended straights +EV for the hero, reducing our folding rate. But a half pot bet should be enough to make most drawing hands -EV for the hero in this situation - anything with 11 or fewer outs in fact.



3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?[/QUOTE]

BU plays fit-or-fold. The initial cbet was an attempt to steal the pot there and then, or to at least gain some information on villain's hand.