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preflop range:
22+, A2s+, A9o+, K8s+, KTo+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J9s+, J9o+, suited connectors 45-9T
cbetting range:
55 (3), 66 (3), TT (3), QQ+ (18), A3s (4), A4s (4), A7s-A9s (12), ATs (3), AJs-AKs (12), A9o (12), ATo, (9) AJo-AKo (36), K8s (4), K9s (4), KTs (3), KJs (4), KQs (4), KTo (9), KJo (12), KQo (12), Q8s (4), Q9s (4), QTs (3) QJs (4), Q9o (12) QTo (9), QJo (12), J9s (4), J9o (12), 56s (2), 78s (4), 89s (4)
239 assuming i counted and added them correctly
against such a nit i probably continue to a flop raise with
55 (3), 66 (3), TT (3), QQ-AA (18) for a grand total of 27 combinations.
27/239= i continue with 11% of my cbetting range versus villain's raise.
he's betting 22.5 to win 12.5 so 22.5(bet)/35(pot+bet) = 64%
obviously villain is owning me when he raises my cbet with KQ as i am folding 89% of the time.
if he floats my 5bb and bets 12 on the turn:
he needs me to check/fold 58% for his float to be +EV in a vacuum
versus such a nit (with no reads that he likes to float or sees me as as chronic cbettor/position raiser) i probably only continue to this turn bet with 55 (3), 66 (3), TT (3), JJ (3), QQ+ (18), KQs (4), KQo (12). i assume he only bets the river with legit nut hands so i can make ane easy fold with say QQ+, on most rivers versus this guy. i may also call a turn bet with AT or AJ for this reason but i'll leave them out. anyway. of my 239 combinations i cbet the flop with, i continue to a turn bet with 46 of them which = 19% of my cbetting range (meaning i fold to the turn bet 81% of the time) so yes he will own me when he floats me, the Jack falls and he bets the turn.
but.. he's a nit so he is pretty unlikely to do this and so i'm not particularly afraid of him taking this line (its also why i cbet against him so much)
ps i think i messed up by not factoring in the blockers to my KQ's on the turn because we somehow "know" he has KQ in the example. oh well.
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