Guys this magic "58%" number is completely bogus. The number depends not just on how often we
check/
fold the
turn, but how often we bet
turn again and how often we
check/
call. So if we always either
check/
fold or
check/
call turn then spoon has it right, since we are committing 17.5 to win 12.5. However when we bet again on the
turn and
villain folds his
float has only cost him 5.
So let's say we do
check/
fold turn 58% of the time but we
fire a second
barrel with the rest of our
range. Now
villain is winning 12.5bb every time we
check/
fold and only losing 5bb every time we
fire again, for a total profit of 0.58*12.5-0.42*5=5.15bb. So massively exploitable.
For
villain's
float to be neutral EV, we need %c/f*12.5 - %bet*5 - %c/c*17.5 to be equal to 0.
Applying this to daviddem's
range since he has helpfully split it up into bet, c/c and c/f, we get
villain's
float EV to be: (63/169)*12.5 - (86/169)*5 - (20/169)*17.5 =+0.044bb. So even with daviddem only
check/folding 37% of the time he his still exploitable to a
float, albeit only just.
Then there are other factors, such as
villain barrelling
river against your c/c
range to reduce your
equity further, +
showdown value of KQ etc, but I appreciate that you've left these out for the sake of simplicity.