Quote Originally Posted by knaplek
Guys this magic "58%" number is completely bogus. The number depends not just on how often we check/fold the turn, but how often we bet turn again and how often we check/call. So if we always either check/fold or check/call turn then spoon has it right, since we are committing 17.5 to win 12.5. However when we bet again on the turn and villain folds his float has only cost him 5.

So let's say we do check/fold turn 58% of the time but we fire a second barrel with the rest of our range. Now villain is winning 12.5bb every time we check/fold and only losing 5bb every time we fire again, for a total profit of 0.58*12.5-0.42*5=5.15bb. So massively exploitable.

For villain's float to be neutral EV, we need %c/f*12.5 - %bet*5 - %c/c*17.5 to be equal to 0.

Applying this to daviddem's range since he has helpfully split it up into bet, c/c and c/f, we get villain's float EV to be: (63/169)*12.5 - (86/169)*5 - (20/169)*17.5 =+0.044bb. So even with daviddem only check/folding 37% of the time he his still exploitable to a float, albeit only just.

Then there are other factors, such as villain barrelling river against your c/c range to reduce your equity further, +showdown value of KQ etc, but I appreciate that you've left these out for the sake of simplicity.
Thanks for picking this up. Besides, the actual situation is much more complicated than that, because the hand will play out totally differently depending on what the turn card is. Even if we consider this turn card only, he will not always fold when we bet the turn, and his EV is not zero when we check/call, which is all in favor of saying that the float is a +EV play.