[1]
First thought is that at CO I'll probably open a 30ish% range with any hand with potential.
Something like: 22-AA, A2s+, ATo+, 32s+, 53s+, 96s+, 65o+. QTo+, KTo
Adjusting to opponents as follows:
BTN:
He's a nitty TAG so I can steal the BTN. I can extend my open range to something near a BTN opening range because he very frequently folds and I will then be likely to playing in position with the initiative. I could extend my range with some suited kings, maybe queens and offsuit aces and maybe the occasional offsuit one-gapper.
If he calls I will tend to proceed with caution if I don't flop big as his pre-flop calling range will be strong (mostly pairs and the occasional often suited overcard situation - if we both hit he'll often have me outkicked.) So if a pot looks to build I'll only continue with something very close to the nuts. That said, since he is fit-or-fold he's certainly not the worst opponent to play a pot against OOP. I will bluff a lot of air against him if the flop misses his range a lot or he checks the flop behind and the turn blanks.
SB:
First thought is danger danger and I should play more straightforward (hands with hand equity) and exploit this aggressive, bluffy opponent thus (by him bluffing into my strong hand equity). This suggests stripping out weaker hands from my pre-flop range. Since he 3bets a decent amount I need to adjust by either betting fewer hands or calling more 3bets pre-flop (or both).
However, once I stop being scared of his aggression I see it as exploitable in other ways also. Since he's not a complete maniac he's likely to be playing aggressively as an adjustment to other people folding too much. He's likely to have some rudimentary hand reading going on and since he's betting with a very wide and weak range, it is probably profitable to bluff him. He will respect overt shows of strength - particularly fake commit-looking bets - and tend to fold many of his bluffs. This suggests that occasionally raising the flop or the turn with air is profitable against this opponent on steal equity alone. If he checks flop or turn he's likely either intending to check/raise with a monster or pot controlling a medium strength hand so I would not bluff in those situations. I would assume he most often leads with his draws. Similarly, calling 3 streets with any pair will sometimes be profitable (especially if obvious draws don't complete). If he bets the flop and checks the turn he will often have a weak made hand that he wants to pot control with, and then I have to make a read based on the board and my image if I can bluff him off it. He will probably not be too reluctant to fold if my story makes sense.
The 3bet situation is worth noting. Since he's aggressive a 3bet pot is likely to make him greedy and I would assume that his cbet in 3bet pots is near 100% - so lots of missed hands in there and lots of value for me. I'm guessing his 3bet range is mostly suited and offsuit aces down to AT, QQ+ and the occasional suited connecter. Against his pre-flop 3bet I'd call all pairs (including AA/KK because I think it'll be more profitable to let him hang himself) intending to call down any pair (including flopped ones) all the way on safe-looking boards. Additionally I would flat big suited aces and some suited connector type hands. The suited hands will become flop AI semi-bluff shoves (over his inevitable cbet) when they flop a draw like gutshot+back door flush or better. The suited big aces likewise when they are overcards.
The observation is that I wouldn't want to fold something pre-flop that I would want to play post-flop against this opponent. That said, I don't think that greatly impacts my pre-flop opening range, but I do think I need to take back out some of the hands I considered putting in due to the BTN since they just flop a tad too weakly.
BB:
This opponent being a complete unknown confirms the idea to play straight forward. I will tend to bluff less often against this opponent and show a lot of respect if he wants to build a big pot. Checking a hand down to a showdown that I might be able to bluff him off may be an acceptable small EV loss because I get to see his cards and can start learning how he thinks. Again this confirms me in not further widening my opening range.
Final range: 22-AA, A2s+, ATo+, 32s+, 53s+, 96s+, 65o+. QTo+, KTo
[2]
I get called by the fit-or-fold player, which means there is definitely value in bluffing the flop as he will fold a enough that it is immediately profitable. However, I do not agree with the bet size for a bluff. The flop is super-dry. While 65 on the board does allow 87 and similar to have straight draws, 87 is not in this opponens pre-flop calling range. AT isn't guaranteed to be in it either. Therefore I do not have to worry about pricing out draws and betting 4bb or maybe even 3bb when bluffing is more profitable since he will fold anyway when he has missed, and it's cheaper when he doesn't fold and I'm behind. Normally I would bet my value and nut hands the same amount as I would my bluff hands for deception.
However, since this example is with a different bet size and a fit-or-fold player can be exploited with bet sizes also I could certainly justify having a strong range be the basis for the 5bb bet. Just like he will fold to any bet size when he has nothing you could argue that he would continue to any bet size when he has something. Any reasonable bet size that is.
With made pairs JT and worse I would check and see what he does. Facing a bet I would likely fold the lot. If he checks behind I would likely fire the lot on a non-Q+ turn and expect him to fold (and otherwise shut down). On Q+ turns I'd check again and if he checks behind I'd bet/fold Tx and better on the river for value (if board is safe) expecting him to call worse pocket pairs. If board is scary I'd be tempted to convert the whole range into a bluff on the river. Probably a 1/2 PSB size bluff.
Ok, back to my flop range. I bet 5bb because I expect to make money when he calls. So I'm either ahead of his calling range or I have a hand with good implied odds if he calls. Ahead of his calling range - I hesitate to put weak top pairs in that range. Maybe even overpairs. If I have AA and he continues in the hand and builds a big pot - am I happy to stack off? Probably not. With an overpair I would probably benefit more from checking and betting the later streets for value. If I then put in a bet on turn and river and get called I'd feel ok about AA. Minimum is probably around an 8-out draw.
While I like backdoor flush draws especially with overcards (like KsQs) I'm just not seeing that I would bet those 5bb. I would tend to bet those 4bb. If the bet size had been 4bb I'd have a range with the vast majority of my pre-flop raising range, but I see the 5bb bet size as one that expects to be profitable when called so I only have really strong hands betting 5bb along with some semi-bluffs for implied odds when they hit.
Final range: TT,66-55,87s,65s,43s,87o,65o
[3]
When he calls, I detect strength. Others have mentioned that he would raise with sets, and I don't really agree. While I am in this case putting 87 in my own range I also already said that I think for the fit-or-folder the bet size is not a cause for alarm and I would think my perceived range is very wide. If he wants to get value from it, he'd be wanting to let me keep bluffing. I would expect him to raise sets on the turn if a flush draw or likely straight draw presents itself and otherwise hold off with the raise to the river when he could shove. He has position. With the set or overpair he would definitely bet if I check any street. I think his calling range here is mainly sets, overpairs (JJ-QQ mainly as he would usually 3bet AA-KK pre) and the occasional AT/KT hand. Occasionally 77-99 will also call to keep me honest.
With the Js on the turn my hand range doesn't really improve. JT is certainly in my perceived range, but not in my actual range. If I bet here, I expect the opponent to fold 77-99 and raise 55, 66, TT, JJ calling only with QQ and AT/KT. That's 18 combos of folds, 12 combos of raises and 30ish combos of calls. At this time I have 9 combos of sets, 9 combos of two pair and 20 combos of straight draws in my range. The implied odds of my straight draw is poor. If I bet and I'm called he'll likely fold to a river bet if I complete. Steal equity is not horrible. He doesn't fold the turn often enough to be profitable, and if he calls turn will likely fold the river if a spade, a 9 or a 2 comes. That's pretty thin and I don't think my straight draws are justified betting hands. Not even 8s7s or 4s3s. My two pair hands probably bet. If called I can easily make another bet on many rivers (not T+) for value. If raised I can confidently fold. With my sets I'm betting and stacking off if raised just because you never know when someone mis-reads the board, overvalues their hand or is full of shit even if they are fit-or-fold.
Final range: TT,66-55,65s,65o
[4]
My two pair hands are counterfeited, so they can't bet. QQ and AT/KT hands that I put him on are now both beating me. I think sets are more unlikely because he did not raise the turn. I bet my sets/quads.
Final range: TT, 66-55
When the opponent folds I put him on QQ.
I've been detailed in my thought process in the hope that any respondents will critique my thought process and tell me where and why it is weak.
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