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OK.
Preflop
Hero
Preflop my CO steal/opening range is a little tighter than usual because of the loose-aggro SB:
22+,A6s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,ATo+,KT o+,QTo+,JTo
This comes to 23% of hands.
Villain
Would re-raise JJ+,AK
Calls a CO raise on the button with 22-TT, AQ-AT, suited connectors 76s+, connectors T9+
Flop
Hero
I know I cbet too much so I made an effort to exclude some hands like big overcards, top pair/dubious kicker and draws with which I would not want to be raised out of the pot with. I excluded 77-99,AKs,QTs,JTs,T9s,T8s,78s,AKo,QTo,JTo, so that leaves me cbetting with TT+,66-22,AQs-A6s,K7s+,QJs,Q9s-Q8s,J9s,97s+,86s,76s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QJo
Villain
Assume he would raise top pair top kicker and better and fold his air, that leaves him with a draw or top pair with dubious kicker: JT,T9,98s,87s (he calls the c-bet with the gutshot based on implied odds)
Turn
Hero
Now I value bet only my made hands. I do not bet the draws I picked up, as I could be raised out of the hand, and I do not second barrel my air. My betting range is TT+,66-55,AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs,J9s,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo
My range against his flop calling range is a 65% favorite.
Villain
He would raise JT, he would fold T9 except Ts9s (low kicker, one overcard and facing a considerable bet) so that leaves only 87s, 98s (with which he just picked up an open ended straight draw) or Ts9s (flush draw). He calls the turn bet with his draws based on implied odds, however I think he is more likely to call the turn bet with combo straight/flush draws than with pure straight or flush draws.
River
Hero
With the T on the river, I will value bet only with my hands that beat his trip T's, should he have it. Why? Because if he does not have trip T, he will not call a bet with the rest of his range, and if he has trip T he will not fold to a bet. So I can bet profitably only with hands that beat trip T's. If I check, since he is straightforward, he will only bet with trip T's, so I can safely fold.
So my river betting range is: JJ-TT,66-55,ATs,KTs,ATo,KTo
Villain
He folds so he obviously did not have Ts9s. That leaves only 98s or 78s, more likely spades.
Are we getting grades for the assignment?
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