Quote Originally Posted by jyms View Post
In poker your eyes will lie to you. That is why losing players think the game is rigged. It's the black swan all over again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bla...282007_book%29
It's not your eyes. It's the fallible human brain's capacity to ignore successes and focus on failures... for whatever reason.

Humans are notoriously horrible at recognizing whether or not something is random. Humans love to invent patterns where none exist.

Here's a chart which summarizes a geometric distribution for drawing a PP. This shows how many non-PP hands a player will expect to be dealt between PP hands.



25% of the time, you will draw a PP after 5 or fewer non-PP hands.
25% of the time, you will draw a PP after 5 - 12 non-PP hands.
25% of the time, you will draw a PP after 12 - 23 non-PP hands.
20% of the time, you will draw a PP after 23 - 50 non-PP hands.
4% of the time, you will draw a PP after 50 - 76 non-PP hands.
1% of the time, it will be more than 76 hands between being dealt a PP.

Many people seeing that kind of spread will call cheating right away. However, this is the predicted value for an event with a 1/17 chance of occurring.