Something Fnord said...

I was reading a thread in the HE ring forum, and Fnord had this to say:

You also could give the other guy lots of credit for every possible draw when it's heads-up to the flop.

And it got me thinking: obviously, you don't want to do that...but how do you eliminate a given draw from the range of hands your opponent(s) may have?

Example:

You hold A A

Action preflop gets it heads up with about 10 BB in the pot.

FLOP: 6 7 8

You pot it, and opp flat calls.

TURN: 10

how do you feel about your aces? Do you have opp on a draw, an overpair, two pair, a set?

Just curious to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

{This post has been removed}

your terms are vague. "Action preflop gets it headup" ... exactly how that happened has a lot of bearing on the question.

This, btw, is one of the reasons i don't automatically pot everything. A halfpot on this flop tells you what you want to know. Another halfpot on the turn, and the board is "live" enough that you can fold to stiff resistance.

You have a PAIR here. That's all you have. It's a nice pair, but hold 'em is a seven card game. Would you like bare Aces in 7CS?

u go allin and when he shows aks u call him a fish

Comment taken out of context. I was being very sarcastic. Chances are the other guy missed or has something like a pair.

You have to use telepathy.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Comment taken out of context. I was being very sarcastic. Chances are the other guy missed or has something like a pair.

I read the sarcasm; I'm not trying to misrepresent what you said. It just got me thinking, that's all.

erm dont player notes make a difference here.
ive only played party for a week but i bet everyone in 25nl has me labelled as 'raises any two cards and continuation bets'
I think, youre thinking too much

Most people are raising an over pair on that connected of a board. Most people are raising a set on that connected of a board. Most people would not have 2 pair with this board if its heads up tot he flop with 10BB in the pot.

So what does a generic random opponent smooth call this flop with? A flush draw, a strait draw, or the intention to bluff the pot on a later street. Are you going to be willing to call a raise with your aces if you 1/2 pot this turn and get raised? How bout if he smooth calls again, what do you do on the river? I think when the board is this coordinated, its fair to check/call or check/fold. Leading the turn again is asking for trouble. I do not like my aces any more on this board.

I would have gone AI on the flop. I much rather win a small pot than loose a big one.

Originally Posted by BankItPayette

I would have gone AI on the flop. I much rather win a small pot than loose a big one.

This will either win you a small pot a lot of the times or lose a big pot a few times. Net -EV.

Originally Posted by BankItPayette

I would have gone AI on the flop. I much rather win a small pot than loose a big one.

I can't say I agree here..

If your opponent flopped the straight, you just lost your stack. Ditto with a set. If he didnt flop much of anything, you win a small pot.

More importantly, if your opponent is on a draw, you aren't giving him a chance to make a mistake. If you pot it, and your opponent calls on a draw, he is making a mistake. That is +EV for you.

Back to the original hand though, 10s is the worst possible turn card here. This is the kind of situation where we need more information to continue giving advice on the hand. Stack sizes, table image, etc. have a lot to do with how this hand should be played out.