Some Statistics Since Attempt to Become More Aggressive

Still not a lot of hands, I know, but I'll put 'em up as I think there's something still amiss. Remember, I was used to winning most every time I sat down at $2 and $10NL. This is not happening at the $25NL tables.

I have just under 10,000 hands at $25NL now, and just under 5,000 since I switched to a more aggressive approach and I have tightened up even more than with the 19 hand strategy that served me well at the micro-limits. Should I raise with any pair in late position to up that PFR number? I'm raising with pairs down to nines and AK and AQ, the latter only in an unraised pot, I fold it to a raise before or a reraise after).

I really do no understand why I cannot win anymore. Almost 4 complete months oscillating between $400 and $550.

What is wrong with these numbers (other than being a big LOSER)? Thanks in advance.

Hands played: 4,772 (since tactical change).
VPIP: 11.92
W$WSF: 24.58%
BB/100: -1.87
PFRaise%: 4.61%

Aggression Factor: 2.81

Jigs

You are tight-passive.

Here's what I raise (gives me a PFR of about 10) in full ring $25NL

- AA-TT in every position
- AK, AQ in every position (maybe not utg or blinds on a laggy table for AQ)
- KQ, AJ MP onwards
- Any PP, A8-AT, KJ, QJ, Axs or SCs 67+ on button if folded to or a limper (maybe 2) behind; Top 50% of hands if folded to.
- I will also sometimes raise lower PPs and SCs in MP+ if it feels right.

A couple of things stick out. These stats look weaktight to me. I think you need to see a few more flops without going crazy. I see your PFR is nudging up, but still could go up more. I would tell you to see a few more flops with drawing hands in the right situation (suited connectors in LP after a bunch of limpers, A-rag sooted with a bunch of limpers, etc). These hands can really pay off when you hit. Aggression factor is pretty good. However, I think it is more important to know WHAT you do with that aggression. Sure, you bet instead of call/check. But how much do you bet? Do you bet so small that you give odds for people to outdraw you? Are your raises puny, or are they big enough to make your opponent wonder what you have?

The second thing that sticks out is winning $ when seeing flop %. I don't know what a good baseline is, but mine is 36%. Yours is 24%. That tells me that you give up on some hands too soon. What are you doing when the flop hits? Are you c-betting if you miss? Do you give up to every raise? Do you factor in the amount to call, to see if you can profitably outdraw them? Keep in mind, that some people will call a flop bet of any size to hit their draw, but they won't call a bet on the turn if they miss. Pay attention to the board and don't be afraid to fire a second barrel on a safe card. Do you raise enough? For example, you have AK, flop comes A49. They bet, do you give up or do you raise?

Some things to consider about $10NL compared to $25 NL. At $10, it is easy to get paid off with AT on the same A49 flop because a lot of goofballs will play A5 like it's the nuts. As you move up, those goofballs are fewer and your AT loses to AQ. Pay attention to that. If a tighty comes over you, you are probably beat. Do you use GameTime Plus or PokerAce Heads up displays? If you don't, I suggest you do. They are invaluable, especially as you play more than one table. Also know that people who do use these will see your stats, and when you get in a pot, as tight as you are, they will stay out of your way, so you don't get paid off. This is bad, but you can use it to your advantage against the right opponent by making a big bluff in a pot. You will know who that is by looking at YOUR HUD and seeing who can be pushed off a hand

Look at your losing hands. Are you losing by getting outkicked? Only play power aces for One Pair hands and that will help. Are you taking two pair too far? Try to take that down on the flop, and watch for draws coming. Do you play big pots with only one pair? Big no no.....

Look at the biggest pots you lose and try to see what you are doing.

Keep in mind that 5K hands is way too small a sample size to tell anything.....

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

The second thing that sticks out is winning $ when seeing flop %. I don't know what a good baseline is, but mine is 36%. Yours is 24%. That tells me that you give up on some hands too soon. What are you doing when the flop hits? Are you c-betting if you miss? Do you give up to every raise? Do you factor in the amount to call, to see if you can profitably outdraw them? Keep in mind, that some people will call a flop bet of any size to hit their draw, but they won't call a bet on the turn if they miss. Pay attention to the board and don't be afraid to fire a second barrel on a safe card. Do you raise enough? For example, you have AK, flop comes A49. They bet, do you give up or do you raise?

At $25nl, 27k hands, my W$WSF was 29%. At $50nl 20k hands, it is $30%. So, from my perspective 24% is quite low since I am not the most agressive player out there...moderately agressive (3.55 af, 1.02 including pf). I have played quite a few hands with Cardsman and he is quite aggressive so I would expect that his W$WSF number to be higher than mine. However, a higher W$WSF does not necessarily mean more profitable player. It could also mean that while you tend to push people off their hands and win more pots, you could also pay off a lot of better hands trying to bet them out of the pot. In conclusion, however, you do seem to be giving up on hands too early or not c-betting enough. That extra 6% W$WSF represents about 36 extra winning hands over 5000 played based on your VP$IP, so that's $250 right there using avg pot size of $6.89 when I played $25nl. This does not take into account how many extra pots you may lose being aggressive, so call it $125 at least that was left on the table.

don't you guys think 11.92% VPIP is super tight? Especially at 25NL - Even super tights play like 15-18% pretty easily - I would guess your only getting paid off by the players who pay Zero attention to the game - Loosen up but learn to let go of hands when its obvious you are behind (try to realize the players who overvalue marginal hands though - there are a TON of these at 25NL - they bet 2nd pair like its quads)_ Don't go crazy with it but I would at least get your VPIP up to 15-16% and I honestly think 20% can be pretty profitable at 25NL - but start slowly (i run 24% VPIP and 11PTBB's/100 hands - so looser is better, for me)

I definitely think it's too tight. I run right around 20% and was up to 25% (although losing at 25%). djzcko may not think so though JUST KIDDING MAN...

I think 15%-16% is a better target.

Thanks guys.

Cardsman, in answer to most of your questions, I hope,...

I am pretty tight. I don't play a lot of Aces including weak suited and AT Some guys here will play suited aces in late position, but I feel that cards like A6-9 are sucker cards. I always raise my pairs down to 99, but only in unraised pots for the lower ones. I only reraise with AA and KK preflop. I will raise with some suited connectors if I feel the table is pretty passive.

My raises are like this. I raise 1 buck when no one has raised in front and then I add 20 cents for each caller. That is whether I'm raising with AA or with 89 suited. So I am not as tight as my stats show, I think.

Did I mention that I'm not getting any cards the last 8,000 hands?

I do C bet if there is one, maybe two players left on the flop. My minimum raise is 1/2 the pot, and I will sometimes make it 3/4 or the full pot if there is a draw for me or if I feel I may have the best hand at the moment.

I am still unsure about what to do when re-raised. I have had some success with raising back, but I have also made some grave errors in judgement and gone too far only to get beat by the best hand.

Also, I've been bluffed recently by a KT suited to my AK. Mullard re-raised my 5 or 6 BB preflop raise. I call. The flop comes xxA. I make my C bet, and Doofus raises that. I figure, given his pre-flop betting that he's on KK or AA, and given my experience with AK, I figure that he's got a set so I fold. Asshat flashed me his KT which was nothing.

I don't think the dude knew my game at all 'cause I didn't know his and I don't recall playing him a lot before. Anyhow, that is but one story. Bluffing into a multiway pot can't be good strategy, but he took my money at any rate.

I admit to making a few rash plays of late. Mostly because I'm not getting cards at all. Pairs and even suited connectors are rare nowadays.

I think that there's another problem and that's that I need to step back, slow down, re-read some of my books again, read more posts here and on other sites about some things that I've forgotten or that I do not fully feel comfortable with (like the math part) and discuss things more with people here. By slow down I mean to go back to playing 2 tables at a time instead of 4, to really force myself to analyze things and also to look more at my histories. I've been lazy in all these things of late. Looking for quick fixes isn't going to turn my game around.

Thanks again. More will come.

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

Do you use GameTime Plus or PokerAce Heads up displays? If you don't, I suggest you do. They are invaluable, especially as you play more than one table. Also know that people who do use these will see your stats, and when you get in a pot, as tight as you are, they will stay out of your way, so you don't get paid off.

Cardsman is right on here. Especially when I multi-table, I jump to a table, see that Jiggus is 11% VP$IP and he's betting ... I double check my hand and usually just get out of the way.

A couple of other things:

If you are colddecked, unless you can get people off their hands (not easy at lower levels), you will have a hard time turning a profit. The goal during that time is to pick your spots and minimize your losses. Every dollar you don't lose during these stretches is as good as a dollar won. But don't take that too far and tighten up even more as that just makes it harder to get paid when you finally get a hand.

As far a A-rag suited, here's what I like to do. See what the pot is when it gets to you. Say there's $1.15 in the pot when it gets to you and you have to call .25. Call! You get to see a cheap flop to see if you get a flush draw! Now if the pot is only .40 when it gets to you, I usually fold. I like to see 2 limpers plus the blinds before I just call. And think about it--that nearly guarantees you won't bleed chips with these hands in early position because you must be in MP for 2 limpers to be in before you! So by doing that, you play position a little better! Occasionally just one limper will do for me, though. I have stopped opening the pot for a limp with these cards because it doesn't pay. If it is folded around in LP, assume you have the best hand at that point and raise!! Then you can rep a strong hand even when you don't hit. If you get raised at any point, take that into consideration. Look at the pot and decide to fold, or see a flop given the dead money in the pot to see if you hit the flop hard. I use this same strat for K-rag too, but you have to be a little more careful with it. The biggest thing to realize is why you play A-rag. It has to do with the "sucker cards" and you are absolutely right. If you don't pick up a FD, you need to hit the flop in a multiway pot hard to continue. 2 pair, trips, etc. NEVER PLAY THESE SOLELY FOR THE ACE. That will keep you out of trouble.

A reraise is usually the sign of a strong hand. 'Nuff said. Look at the pot odds to decide whether or not to continue on the chance you will outdraw him. Unless the dude is a maniac, you can step back and wait for a better spot. If you have a strong hand like a set, get him all in right then. If he outdraws you then you still did your job.

Make your c-bet sizes pretty similar and do not attach them to the strength of your hand. A good player will pickup on that and cream you. If you are going to vary the size, by all means mix it up so they can't say "if he bets 1/2 pot on the flop, it's a draw, 2/3 is TPTK...etc".

Also, don't play scared just because you get bluffed out of a big pot. Just take notes. And remember that the next time the guy pulls a big bet on the river, he likely has the goods because the bluff was a set up. If you see him do it a lot, you can lower your calling range a lot.

Stepping down in tables may help a lot, too. Gives you time to work on your reads and think before you act.

Givememyleg is right, too. You cannot let this game affect you emotionally. If you lose $25 you should not be depressed about it. Poker is not life. My little girl still loves me if I am up $200 or down $200.......can't say the same about my wife though LOL (Just kidding)...

Keep the chin up, Jigs

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

I definitely think it's too tight. I run right around 20% and was up to 25% (although losing at 25%). djzcko may not think so though JUST KIDDING MAN...

I think 15%-16% is a better target.

LOL C-man. Just because I play $50nl tight (15% VP$IP), doesn't mean I also played $25nl that way. I was 20.5% at $25nl, 27k hands 11PTBB/100. I am slowly adding more hands to my $50nl game so I am more like 18% for the last 3000 hands or so...

Thanks again to all. Lots of good dialogue here.

I am taking a break from ring. I see a lot of leaks in my current game and need to study up a bit more. Since my first books on poker were related to limit, I still have these memories of the strategy for that game and that is not good.

I don't think I'll go back to $10 though. Just playing two tables instead of 4 will help.

I'm actually still playing, just enjoying some mini-tournies for a while.

A comment about GT+.

I have it, but it is a pain to use with Paradise, and when using it there, it slows my antediluvian PC down greatly which can cause me to time out.

I wonder how many players on Paradise use GT+ given the hassles. I know of at least one player here who stopped using it upon moving to that site.

Does anyone have some comments on GT and Paradise?

GT+ is your only choice for a HUD on 'dise since PokerAce isn't compatible. Paradise is really PokerTracker/HUD unfriendly, if you can't live without, I would probably suggest moving to a different site.