Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
Sorry to have left you hanging, acg.
no worries sir lol

I was spending all my time in the "Werewolf Village" forum here on FTR.
My team lost 'cause I made a couple of really bad choices.

hate when that happens..lol

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Renton has lead you well, and the only critique I have for him is semantic.
He used "EV" when he should have use "value" a couple of times.
Here's what he wrote:
EV(3-bet) = P(fold)*EV(fold) + P(4-bet)*EV(4-bet) + P(call)*EV(call)

It should be:
EV(3-bet) = P(fold)*V(fold) + P(4-bet)*V(4-bet) + P(call)*V(call)

I just took the E's out of the RHS (right-hand side) of the equation. This is because we know the value of that play, and it's not a random variable.

I.e. If we bet, and Villain folds, we will win a non-random amount. That is a value.
When we multiply that value by a rate at which Villain folds, that's an expected value.
makes sense. also defines EV which will be helpful. ty sir
k




Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
The equation may make more sense if presented like this:

EV = (fold%)*(18.5) + (1-fold%)*(something)

something = (equity%)*(105.5 - rake) - (1-equity%)*(96)

EV = (fold%)*(18.5) + (1-fold%)*( (equity%)*(105.5 - rake) - (1-equity%)*(96) )

EV = (fold%)*(18.5) + (1-fold%)*(equity%)*(105.5 - rake) - (1-fold%)*(1-equity%)*(96)


All I did was show why in the hell the (1 - fold%) term shows up twice.
I see it showed up twice, and this might be a dumb question but why does it show up twice?