alright, Im sort of stuck now.
I have 2.5k hands on villain.
he opens pretty tight, 16.7/12.4 . where I want to exploit him though is his 3bet stats. he calls a 3bet 52%, F23B 39% , 4bet 9.1%.
his fold to cbet is 72%. his fold to turn cbet is 0%. if he sees a turn, he either calls or raises, (50/60% respectively)
I did the preflop EV like you did above. my problem is when he calls, how do we write that out?
Outcome 1 = we 3bet , he folds.
probability = .39
EV mag = +13.5
product = +(.39) * (13.5)
Outcome 2 = we 3bet, he 4bets, we fold ( for simplicity I guess, we always fold to 4bet since he only 4bets AKs,AA,KK)
probability = .091
EV mag = -13.5
product = -(.091) * (9)
Outcome 3 = we 3bet , he calls
probability = .52
EV mag = this is where im stuck. how do we breakdown the times he calls and folds to our cbet and the times we cbet and give up OTT. again for simplicitys sake were never putting money in on the turn.
in the end I want to know how often I can 3bet him with *bluff hands* and take the pot OTF profitably. theres a glaring weakness and I know how to exploit it but I don't know the math to double check my frequencies. thanks
*$25NL 6max too btw*
* edit I think I solved it*
outcome 3 = we 3bet, he calls, we cbet 13 into 19.5, he folds.
probability = (.52) * (.72) (.52=times he calls 3b, 72% is how often he folds to a cbet)
EV mag = +32.5
product = +(.52)*(.72) * (32.5)
outcome 4= we 3bet, he calls, we cbet 13 into 19.5, he raises or calls and we surrender.
probability = (.52) * (.28)
EV mag = -21 ( I am wondering about this number being correct, we raise 9 pre and cbet 13. we lose the 21 we invested, or the 32.5 in the pot?
product = -(.52) * (.28) * (21)
EV = (.39) * (13.5) - (.091) * (9) + (.52)*(.72)*(32.5) - (.52) * (.28) * (21)
EV = +13.5BBs right?
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