some AK TPTK 3b pot retardo - 25nl

played some 25nl today cos fucked up

villain seems loose-tard-aggro 70-17 over about 20 hands. No history.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($42.63)
MP1 ($25.37)
MP2 ($23.95)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($25)
SB ($24.75)
BB ($37.11)
UTG ($23.82)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.35) 7, J, 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($7.35) K (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $4.50, UTG+1 calls $4.50

River: ($16.35) 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $4, Hero raises to $?,

Jam.

I call, curious to see what the good regs think. Villain's river bet does stink of blocker, could easily be KQ KT etc, so maybe jamming is good against this guy.

Meh, I don't like raising the river.

The only reason to raise would be if you think he's good enough to make a blocking bet on the river with a hand like KQ AND is bad enough to call when raised. Otherwise his line looks too strong. Sure plenty of J's and K's you beat call a turn bet, but unless he's capable of the block, does he lead them on the river? And if he does, will he call a raise?

I think if this was a block, he'll probably only call a raise with KQ (and maybe not even that) and likely fold KT, and any J.

If you are prepared to raise the river here with TPTK, I think you might be giving too high implied odds to pocket pairs preflop.

Obviously I'm not folding though, so I call.

i min-raised the river. Obviously not as a bluff.
thoughts?

What % of his range with this line is KQ?

Are you calling if he shoves over?

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

What % of his range with this line is KQ?

some. He calls 99 to a min-raise perhaps?

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

Are you calling if he shoves over?

deep breath -> fold cos don't see much river 3bet bluff shoving at micros and he isn't value shoving KQ

Originally Posted by daven

some. He calls 99 to a min-raise perhaps?

I don't think you have enough of a sample on this guy to assume he calls crap like 99 to a river min raise. I only see him calling a king here, and if he's that bad, he might "value" shove it and force you to fold the better hand.

I think ginger nailed it, if he's good enough to blocker river with KQ, he's good enough to fold it. There's very little value here imo, I think we need to see him making terrible river calls before we make these kind of moves.

I can't believe 99 is leading the river and if it is, it is a marginal bet/fold blocker play.

Also if he shoves over, no deep breath is required. Snap-fold.

I call, and if he has KQ or a hand you beat, I make a note that he is capable of making good blocking bets. (unless he has air in which case he is capable of making random suck bet type river bluffs).

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

Meh, I don't like raising the river.

The only reason to raise would be if you think he's good enough to make a blocking bet on the river with a hand like KQ AND is bad enough to call when raised. Otherwise his line looks too strong.

What about his line looks strong? he's a megafish with a super wide range who checked 2 streets, the 1/4pot river block doesn't scream strength at all.

A wise man once said "fish never fold blocks", so jam river, stack the fish. Probably bet turn bigger too.

just pretend he didn't even bet and there's an extra $4 in the pot

how large would you bet?

The fact that he bet the river looks strong to me.

Sorry but the standard uber-fish line for a big hand (set) is check/call two streets and lead river. One of the best things about this type of fish, is that they almost never have implied odds to set mine against you (unless you have AA and sometimes KK) because they slow play monsters until the river.

If you always jam the river with TPTK against this line, are you not making the arguably bigger mistake of offering massive implied odds to set mine for the sake of milking extra value sometimes from KQ? Or is offering the correct implied odds less of a mistake than value raising here?

you're worried about a set? villain's range is super wide here, and if you think that KQ is the only thing that calls a river jam here then you're probably missing tons of value from megafish elsewhere.

70/17 over 20 hands.

Interesting question: Is that enough hands to be a mega-fish with a super-wide range in this spot?

At first I thought "no way".

Here are some numbers. Let's suppose a player sits at our table with a VPIP (over all the hands he plays) of N% Further, to simplify, suppose he always plays his top N% of hands if they are dealt to him. What is the probability that you see a VPIP >= 70 after 20 hands?

N Probability
20 0.00000185
24 0.00001791
28 0.00011564
32 0.0005516
35 0.001520662
40 0.006465875
49 0.04801279
50 0.05765915


What this table means is that you would reject the idea that a player with VPIP = 70 after 20 hands has a true VPIP of a minimum of 49 at the 5% level. In short, mega-fish.

I ignored the stats because of the sample size. Upon re-evaluating them and realising that 20 is enough to call the guy a mega-fish, I agree with a big raise/shove.

That was illuminating.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

just pretend he didn't even bet and there's an extra $4 in the pot

how large would you bet?

it's really hard not to be results orientated here
i think i'd be looking at $9.50 on the river
he called the min-raise with JJ = confused the hell outa me

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

just pretend he didn't even bet and there's an extra $4 in the pot

how large would you bet?

This.