I agree with a lot of what you said (even though it was painful to read).

I think something else we should be considering when we're deciding whether or not to lead the turn is how much value we can get from our hand vs a particular player. If we can't get 3 streets of value then it doesn't make sense to lead turn imo because if he checks behind we can pretty comfortably value bet the river. If we think we can get 3 streets (which is probably pretty likely with TPTK vs most players at the micros, even the regs) then I think leading turn ourselves is better.

I think that it basically comes down to their calling range being a lot wider than their betting range. The more passive someone is the more inclined we should be to bet ourselves. The more aggressive they are (and the wider their betting range), the more we should check and let them barrel.