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 Originally Posted by Imthenewfish
You can't really make assumptions that he always bets every street without table stats. The rest of the table was probably uber nitty so most of his pots he took down weren't on the turn or river. Only have 22 hands on him so its pretty likely he's being extra active because the table isn't playing back and noone has took a stand. Think about it, if he's bet every street that he's played theres no way hes not bust if he ends up shoving the river with J high. Calling a shove with 2nd pair on the river is not a good idea at 5nl against anyone.
Agreed. I wouldn't condone calling a river shove here. I guess I didn't think about the table structure at all, but even if he was bet into and folded after aggression I still think his Afq = 100, but i'm not positive.
Makes more sense that he's bluffed off every hand before that as you said. But we agree it's not from bet bet shove every hand. I'm just saying I think he COULD be a quick busting player, who is still in it, or continually deposits. I have definitely seen a player show up shoving the river 3+ times on air at the same table in under 100 hands.. 2 of the times vs me with a monster, and saw him river shove 8 times in that period.
EVEN IF he is this type of player though.. I don't think I'm calling with a pair of 8's here. He shows up with a made hand about as often, and 2nd pair can't hold up to much. I think my main points are; At 5NL we should never have this line (or at any limit IMO), and we should never be calling this river.
/edit
Even though he did show up with a weaker hand.. I think you will run into some players LAgg who will make a hand look weak by 2x pot shoving the river, with a hand like A4, 44, or a range of decent hands. Though this time you were right, I think more of the time you are wrong in this exact situation. Mostly; if we're going to try to use a tell like this, I'd make sure it is over a larger sample size, and have an idea of where the AFq came from. I'm sure I've had 22 hands in a row that I was 58/58/100, even though overall I'm more like 15/13/38.
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