So hows about a hero call here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($5.58)
Button ($3)
SB ($4.99)
Hero (BB) ($5.07)
UTG ($3.60)
UTG+1 ($5.17)
MP1 ($4.58)
MP2 ($1.61)
MP3 ($3.02)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 8
5 folds, CO bets $0.12, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.07
Flop: ($0.26) 4, 9, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, CO raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.20
Turn: ($1.06) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
River: ($2.06) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.56 (All-In)
Total pot: $2.06

VIllian in question is 58/58/100 over 22 hands , meaning he is effectively betting his entire range on every street, if the small sample is anything to go by..

I will say my line was kinda retarded up until the river ( i think i must have been a little tilted at the time and somehow got the idea that i could "outplay" him on later streets) but once I get to the river i think i can make a call here.

There are 2 ranges he could viably have preflop and up to the river . The first range is basically any picture card and a couple of suited connectors (
22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+ is about 58% ) and the second is Stove's default range for 58% (
33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o )

My equity against both these ranges below:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
602 games 0.005 secs 120,400 games/sec
Board: 4d 9s 6h 4c 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.764% 20.27% 00.50% 122 3.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+ }
Hand 1: 79.236% 78.74% 00.50% 474 3.00 { Kh8h }
T
ext results appended to pokerstove.txt
589 games 0.005 secs 117,800 games/sec
Board: 4d 9s 6h 4c 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.862% 28.35% 00.51% 167 3.00 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 1: 71.138% 70.63% 00.51% 416 3.00 { Kh8h }
　

obviously im bitch slapping his betting range if its his entire PFR range. There is probably some question whether he'd shove his entire range on the river, but my thoughts are he can definitely be doing this as a spazz with bricked overs, or god forbid, even a 6, and the fact that the board is paired obviously reduces the combo of 1 pr/ random 2 pr hands he can have.

Do we call here vs his likely range?

[edited to fix HH]

no

well what range do you put this whale on on the river imthenewfish?

Just because he's play 58% of the hands you've seen doesn't mean he's playing the top 58% of hands. Noone over the age of 7 is ever shoving an ace or a 6 there. Your estimations are way off. I don't care how much money he loses he's not getting to the river and shoving J high. Your play failed to the river and without any significant reads of him stacking off with an overcard you can't call an all-in with 2nd pair. Seriously leave that to the 2nl pros.

i dont know.. over the small sample he's bet his ENTIRE range on every street.. so sure maybe his value range owns me but he's likely to be bluffing a ton imo. I mean if ur a fish, why bet bet shove unless your overcards bricked.. he's probably going for a value shove on flop with an overpair as well.

maybe if he was 58/58/100 over like 200 hands i could make this call

btw maybe he's 7

his range is more like AA-88,66,44,A9,K9,Q9,J9,109, and if he is really spazzing out as you're claiming he is I'll include AK/AQ. Just because someone is running 58/58 doesn't mean they shove any overcard on the river against an opponet that took your line of play.
Board: 4d 9s 6h 4c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.333% 23.33% 00.00% 28 0.00 { Kh8h }
Hand 1: 76.667% 76.67% 00.00% 92 0.00 { 88+, 66, 44, AQs+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, AQo+, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }

i suppose if he was a complete unknown that would be reasonable.. but do you still put him on that range if hes still running 58/58/100 over a larger sample size?? i mean 100% afq= bets his whole range on every single street...

Originally Posted by jaytoi

i suppose if he was a complete unknown that would be reasonable.. but do you still put him on that range if hes still running 58/58/100 over a larger sample size?? i mean 100% afq= bets his whole range on every single street...

yes, but against this type player i would tighten up and not bluff into; and would not get into your river spot

idk in the long run K8 suited has value HU vs this type of player if we happen to flop top pair or better. I agree my play is retarded, was just thinking about how light we can call down vs this type of guy.

K8s would be fine IP

hes not raising pre, minraising the flop, half potting the turn, and 2x potting the river with every hand in his range. if you have no idea how to adjust his range from here, then king high with few draws isnt likely to be the hand i choose to figure it out.

Why are you calling the flop

mostly because i was being retarded and tilty at the time. I was more wondering about the river decision- what if we flopped an 8 and he took this line?

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

his range is more like AA-88,66,44,A9,K9,Q9,J9,109, and if he is really spazzing out as you're claiming he is I'll include AK/AQ. Just because someone is running 58/58 doesn't mean they shove any overcard on the river against an opponet that took your line of play.
Board: 4d 9s 6h 4c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.333% 23.33% 00.00% 28 0.00 { Kh8h }
Hand 1: 76.667% 76.67% 00.00% 92 0.00 { 88+, 66, 44, AQs+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, AQo+, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }

I disagree. I think this is assuming the villain is at all profitable. If this is the type of player that I am aware of, it is the type that will bet bet bet, whenever they stay in a hand. I love these players as I just wait out hands that I hit post-flop and call their flop, turn, and river. However I do agree, their range is probably slightly smaller shoving all in; though not to the extent of being a good range, or even a decent range as listed above. I'm thinking 22+ any 4 that he'd play preflop, and a variety of hands that include some with mid pair, etc etc. but with lowering frequency. that is: I don't think this is a definite: villain plays this hand the same every time; so I think even in defining a range we're making calculation errors.

That being said!!!!

Fold flop...
Fold turn...
Fold river...

At 5NL we aren't doing our EV any favors by assuming our 2nd pair 2nd kicker is good. Get your money in better. even against a random range, over 22 hands we can't ASSUME he is this type of player. And we won't likely see him around long enough to know. I think the weakest I'm stacking off here to this villain is A9. And that's definitely not all the time, and not likely after only 22 hands.

Also, I'm not sure exactly how Afq is calculated, but he isn't likely bet bet shove every hand, probably mild bets in a range of situations. And I don't think his Afq would be affected if he were OOP and folded to a bet. So this isn't necessarily the type of player I am thinking of.

Maybe he bets every street, and indeed this bet does look desperate, but I don't think we can expect to profit doing this. Let him bluff at you when you have a made hand. especially after this hand, assuming you call call fold, he's likely to take this line again. do it with the nuts man (obviously call call rai ).

No stats to back this one up. I think we are making WAY too many assumptions when trying to put him on a river shove range; given his stats and the few amount of hands.

Originally Posted by sven00100

I disagree. I think this is assuming the villain is at all profitable. If this is the type of player that I am aware of, it is the type that will bet bet bet, whenever they stay in a hand. I love these players as I just wait out hands that I hit post-flop and call their flop, turn, and river. However I do agree, their range is probably slightly smaller shoving all in; though not to the extent of being a good range, or even a decent range as listed above. I'm thinking 22+ any 4 that he'd play preflop, and a variety of hands that include some with mid pair, etc etc. but with lowering frequency. that is: I don't think this is a definite: villain plays this hand the same every time; so I think even in defining a range we're making calculation errors.

That being said!!!!

Fold flop...
Fold turn...
Fold river...

At 5NL we aren't doing our EV any favors by assuming our 2nd pair 2nd kicker is good. Get your money in better. even against a random range, over 22 hands we can't ASSUME he is this type of player. And we won't likely see him around long enough to know. I think the weakest I'm stacking off here to this villain is A9. And that's definitely not all the time, and not likely after only 22 hands.

Also, I'm not sure exactly how Afq is calculated, but he isn't likely bet bet shove every hand, probably mild bets in a range of situations. And I don't think his Afq would be affected if he were OOP and folded to a bet. So this isn't necessarily the type of player I am thinking of.

Maybe he bets every street, and indeed this bet does look desperate, but I don't think we can expect to profit doing this. Let him bluff at you when you have a made hand. especially after this hand, assuming you call call fold, he's likely to take this line again. do it with the nuts man (obviously call call rai ).

No stats to back this one up. I think we are making WAY too many assumptions when trying to put him on a river shove range; given his stats and the few amount of hands.

You can't really make assumptions that he always bets every street without table stats. The rest of the table was probably uber nitty so most of his pots he took down weren't on the turn or river. Only have 22 hands on him so its pretty likely he's being extra active because the table isn't playing back and noone has took a stand. Think about it, if he's bet every street that he's played theres no way hes not bust if he ends up shoving the river with J high. Calling a shove with 2nd pair on the river is not a good idea at 5nl against anyone.

yeh that's what i was thinkin- sample size needs to be quite a lot bigger before we can assume anything. I dont think the minraise is that significant, as this is what many fish do when raising with their whole range. Maybe the shove should say something tho. Still, because im results oriented and all- he actually showed up with KQ rofl. I suppose he was ahead till the river anyway so no point like ever taking the line i took, dunno wtf i was doing :P

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

You can't really make assumptions that he always bets every street without table stats. The rest of the table was probably uber nitty so most of his pots he took down weren't on the turn or river. Only have 22 hands on him so its pretty likely he's being extra active because the table isn't playing back and noone has took a stand. Think about it, if he's bet every street that he's played theres no way hes not bust if he ends up shoving the river with J high. Calling a shove with 2nd pair on the river is not a good idea at 5nl against anyone.

Agreed. I wouldn't condone calling a river shove here. I guess I didn't think about the table structure at all, but even if he was bet into and folded after aggression I still think his Afq = 100, but i'm not positive.

Makes more sense that he's bluffed off every hand before that as you said. But we agree it's not from bet bet shove every hand. I'm just saying I think he COULD be a quick busting player, who is still in it, or continually deposits. I have definitely seen a player show up shoving the river 3+ times on air at the same table in under 100 hands.. 2 of the times vs me with a monster, and saw him river shove 8 times in that period.

EVEN IF he is this type of player though.. I don't think I'm calling with a pair of 8's here. He shows up with a made hand about as often, and 2nd pair can't hold up to much. I think my main points are; At 5NL we should never have this line (or at any limit IMO), and we should never be calling this river.

/edit

Even though he did show up with a weaker hand.. I think you will run into some players LAgg who will make a hand look weak by 2x pot shoving the river, with a hand like A4, 44, or a range of decent hands. Though this time you were right, I think more of the time you are wrong in this exact situation. Mostly; if we're going to try to use a tell like this, I'd make sure it is over a larger sample size, and have an idea of where the AFq came from. I'm sure I've had 22 hands in a row that I was 58/58/100, even though overall I'm more like 15/13/38.

Originally Posted by jaytoi

yeh that's what i was thinkin- sample size needs to be quite a lot bigger before we can assume anything. I dont think the minraise is that significant, as this is what many fish do when raising with their whole range. Maybe the shove should say something tho. Still, because im results oriented and all- he actually showed up with KQ rofl. I suppose he was ahead till the river anyway so no point like ever taking the line i took, dunno wtf i was doing :P

Just wait for TPTK or something and stack his ass, no need to get fancy with K high

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Just wait for TPTK or something and stack his ass, no need to get fancy with K high

this.

check-fold flop given reads. Who cares about the river, you shouldn't be there.

Originally Posted by jaytoi

I mean if ur a fish, why bet bet shove unless your overcards bricked..

cos he has a hand and is playing a tilting-station fool who thinks he's negreanu/ivey/durrrr

you aren't villain in this hand i played recently by any chance? or are you?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($52.30)
MP3 ($18.25)
CO ($73.75)
Button ($50)
SB ($120.05)
Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($52.85)
UTG+1 ($35.70)
MP1 ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
7 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2

Flop: ($5) 6, 5, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5

Turn: ($15) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $13, SB calls $13

River: ($41) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $29.50 (All-In), SB calls $29.50

Total pot: $100 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had A, 7 (one pair, sixes).
Hero had K, K (two pair, Kings and sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $97

kk fuckin chill.

obv not i dont go nuts with A hi and i dont play 50nl

yeh ur right i mean this should be in fuckin tales of poker or something really.
"when i was tilted and made a lucky call"
i'm pretty much taking the piss if i try to apply theory to any of this

Originally Posted by jaytoi

yeh ur right i mean this should be in fuckin tales of poker or something really.
"when i was tilted and made a lucky call"
i'm pretty much taking the piss if i try to apply theory to any of this

There is theory behind everything, and I think what you are suggesting may apply here, but I also don't think it is nearly enough to be making a call to 2x+ pot shove AI on the river. -EV overall, but an interesting TYPE of situation to look at. Posting it, and analyzing it, regardless is good. You don't seem to be trying to bash and defend your call even though the results favored you. Hopefully some of these other things will come into your mind if you get a similar hand. Maybe it will be justified by a larger sample size, or ridiculous river all ins, and you'll be making a flying call with +EV on top pair, or plugging a hole in the boat! I know people here help me fix my leaky boat (with channels to let the fish in of course )

Originally Posted by jaytoi

yeh ur right i mean this should be in fuckin tales of poker or something really.
"when i was tilted and made a lucky call"
i'm pretty much taking the piss if i try to apply theory to any of this

nah, i think there is something to be gained from this. You see how strong top pair + is against maniac fish, and how valuable small sample size reads can sometimes be. Like, based on reads your play is great if you had something like J9s, but you'd get slammed for it by people too often.

i read something really interesting a few days ago about sample size and reads and uber-fish. You don't get a good sample size on uber-fish cos they don't last long enough... so you have to be prepared to go with it sometimes. higher in stakes you go the more this applies as conditional probability (or something) tells you that a player you have no stats on is more likely to be bad than solid (assuming you are a reg with decent volume in your game, and because the player pool decreases in size as you move up). For example, the hand i posted is fine vs a villain such as the one you described, and awful vs some (only some!) regs.

{Locked}

Pick better hands to post to analyze and figure out what causes you to make 3 retarded calls in the same hand.