I have played enough hold-em, and watched way too much hold-em. I have a theory that hold-em poker is really about 80% luck and 20% skill, once you get past beginner poker players. If you take average poker players (those that have played say 500+ hands of poker), they really all have a chance to win any tournement if they handle tilting, but are really just not complete idiots. It comes down to that 80% luck. Luck in poker is really timing.

I believe that the TV commentators make a huge of emphasis on tells, "great lay downs", reading the betting stratagies, etc. I think it really comes down to soooooo much luck/timing. The 80/20 that I came up with is in most tourneys there is usually only one or two of the big name pros at the final table. Many times amateurs make it.

They show the pros winning, but dont show how many times they end up loosing their winnings. "Mike The Mouth" lost about 500k after winning last year.

I think that what makes the pros get into more final tables really comes down to the fact that once they win one big tourney, they have stakes to enter tournies for a long time. The regular joe cannot afford 10k entries that often. Someone that won a million plus, can enter for a long time before loosing any money. The more you play, the more chance you have to win (and you will develop the basic skills).

Again, just look at how many amatuers and first timers make it to final tables. BTW. That fact is why I love to watch. The fact that anyone can walk off the street and beat all the pros, makes poker unlike any other competition!!