Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,292,000 Posts!
Poker ForumBeginners Circle

Should I fold AA pre-flop here?

Results 1 to 47 of 47

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    I'm going to give this a try...Never done it before, hope I got the math right.

    Hero has 5000

    Chips...13500
    Fold = 4800
    Call-Win = 10100
    Call-Lose = 0

    % of Prize pool
    Fold = 35.43%
    Call-Win = 44.50%
    Call-Lose = 0

    35.43% = (x * 44.5% + ((1-x) * 0%)
    Goal Seeking for x we need to win more than 79.62% of the time.

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 84.255% 83.29% 00.97% 675998460 7845912.00 { AA }
    Hand 1: 15.745% 14.78% 00.97% 119941812 7845912.00 { 66+, A8s+, AJo+ }

    Against this range we're going to win 84.255% of the time, looks like a call to me
    (Josh)
  2. #2
    Using the ICM Nash Calculator, if we call and win our equity would be 44.7%. If we call and lose, our equity is zero. If we fold, our equity is 35.9%. This assumes no one else calls.

    If CO is on atc, our showdown equity is 85.2%.

    EV of a call = .852*44.7 - .148*0 = 38.1
    EV of a fold = 35.9

    So, surprisingly, it's a call. It's also a call with KK, but not QQ.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •