Should I fold AA pre-flop here?

Blinds are at 100/200 with no antes.
The payout structure is $5, $3, $2.
Four-handed, here are the stacks before blinds:

BB 5000 (Hero)
SB 1000
BU 100
CO 7400

We're dealt AA, the CO shoves, and it's folded to us. What's our play?

Any reply that doesn't include some range for CO and some ICM calculations is going to get deleted.

without even wizzing it, that should be a fold. the button is about to blind out, so no reason to risk bubbling vs the one guy who has us covered. interested in seeing how -$ev it is if someone has wiz. if co is good, by the time we get HU, he should be huge.

I'd say it's an easy fold for a number of reasons. I'll list a few that I can think of although the won't appear in any relevant order. First thing that comes to mind is would not appear to be worth the risk being that our M factor is 16.66. If we look at best case scenario and we are sure villain is shoving with total air such as 72o we still stand a chance of loose more than 1:10 so why risk it at this point. Now lets put villain on a more realistic range that does not include total bluffs such as:{TT+,AQs+,KQs,AKo} we're going to lose move than 1.683:10

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

66,779,856 games 0.056 secs 1,192,497,428 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.173% 81.63% 01.54% 54512928 1030042.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 16.827% 15.28% 01.54% 10206844 1030042.00 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo }


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After playing around with an icm calculator your stack currently worth $3.582 and if when the BU bust out it goes up slightly from there. Were as if you call and go busto even though the chance of that is slight your stack is worth NUTTIN!

I'm sure I've fucked this up somewhat but FOLD is best I'm confident in that!

not gonna do this math right now cause im playing, but theres times in a DoN where folding AA is ez and soo obviously the right play

I'm going to give this a try...Never done it before, hope I got the math right.

Hero has 5000

Chips...13500
Fold = 4800
Call-Win = 10100
Call-Lose = 0

% of Prize pool
Fold = 35.43%
Call-Win = 44.50%
Call-Lose = 0

35.43% = (x * 44.5% + ((1-x) * 0%)
Goal Seeking for x we need to win more than 79.62% of the time.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.255% 83.29% 00.97% 675998460 7845912.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 15.745% 14.78% 00.97% 119941812 7845912.00 { 66+, A8s+, AJo+ }

Against this range we're going to win 84.255% of the time, looks like a call to me

Using the ICM Nash Calculator, if we call and win our equity would be 44.7%. If we call and lose, our equity is zero. If we fold, our equity is 35.9%. This assumes no one else calls.

If CO is on atc, our showdown equity is 85.2%.

EV of a call = .852*44.7 - .148*0 = 38.1
EV of a fold = 35.9

So, surprisingly, it's a call. It's also a call with KK, but not QQ.

Depends on our edge and his range. The bigger our edge the more it becomes a fold versus a VERY VERY tight range. If we have a small edge(Likely if CO is any good just because he has position on us with us covered) then it's a call.

I'm sorry I don't have pokerstove cos I'm a mac user. what could he have that means we fold aces because we have an edge I'm only asking not criticising or being clever Im not. but the one time I don't give a fuck about somebodies range is when i am calling a pre flop shove with aces it doesn't get better than that. kings i could find a fold even if i shouldn't but aces. I get the idea of not risking your stack at all when the bubble is about to burst, folding for this reason might be wrong mathematically but I understand it, but I don't understand this talk of range. sorry if i'm missing something obvious.

fuck it, play to win. snap call

Originally Posted by kickass

I'm sorry I don't have pokerstove cos I'm a mac user. what could he have that means we fold aces because we have an edge I'm only asking not criticising or being clever Im not. but the one time I don't give a fuck about somebodies range is when i am calling a pre flop shove with aces it doesn't get better than that. kings i could find a fold even if i shouldn't but aces. I get the idea of not risking your stack at all when the bubble is about to burst, folding for this reason might be wrong mathematically but I understand it, but I don't understand this talk of range. sorry if i'm missing something obvious.

The part that you're missing: The fact that real money is worth more than Tchips. That's what ICM sets out to demonstrate. It tries to show you how much money your chips are worth at any given time, but as you get closer, and closer to the bubble, risking all of your chips, without the superhardcore nuts becomes dumber and dumber.

In this case, the shortie is getting ready to blind out, and will probably be swarmed out (all players will call/checkdown) and you're not in any danger of blinding out anytime soon. Your chips right now are worth 0 dollars, and in 1 hand could ostensibly have a real world worth of between 2 and 5 dollars. Clearly fold.

--The Payout structure is also appears cleverly laid out so as to make playing for 3rd or second as valuable or more valuable than playing for first. Which actually happens often in tournament environments.

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

--The Payout structure is also appears cleverly laid out so as to make playing for 3rd or second as valuable or more valuable than playing for first. Which actually happens often in tournament environments.

I think I read somewhere at FTR that , its better to finish 2nd twice , than 1st once . Is this what you are pointing out here ?

Originally Posted by Donachello

fuck it, play to win. snap call

This

i don't think albert einstein's wildest quantum theories could convince me to fold aces here

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Blinds are at 100/200 with no antes.
The payout structure is $5, $3, $2.
Four-handed, here are the stacks before blinds:

BB 5000 (Hero)
SB 1000
BU 100
CO 7400

We're dealt AA, the CO shoves, and it's folded to us. What's our play?

Any reply that doesn't include some range for CO and some ICM calculations is going to get deleted.

I'm not much of a tournament player, so my strategy currently consists of trying to incite shoves via the chatbox ("Are you gonna just sit there and let him BET INTO YOU LIKE THAT?, etc.) and quietly folding my way into the money. The best part about this strategy is that it doesn't require any math.

I don't understand COs range for a shove here? If the shortstack BTN has a hand worth calling with, a limp call from CO would still cover the BTNs stack? Or, if CO is trying to steal the blinds, wouldn't a more normal raise be best? This must be a well known strategy to push with a certain range in a situation like this, but if I was the CO, I don't see WHY I would expose my stack here, when the money is so close? How can I win the blinds (300 chips; ~1/16th of the worst case effective stack) often enough... So I guess he's praying for a call from a worse hand, meaning he has AA?

In which case, Hero's AA is a fold. Why play AA when it's a 1:1 dog? That's the worst possible time to play AA, compounded by the fact that the money is still one place away.

Obviously, there's a reason I don't play tournaments, and if I knew what ICM calculations were, I would've included one. Maybe somebody can help me out instead of mocking and locking like last night? This is the BC, right?

Originally Posted by manfredi

I don't understand COs range for a shove here? If the shortstack BTN has a hand worth calling with, a limp call from CO would still cover the BTNs stack? Or, if CO is trying to steal the blinds, wouldn't a more normal raise be best? This must be a well known strategy to push with a certain range in a situation like this, but if I was the CO, I don't see WHY I would expose my stack here, when the money is so close? How can I win the blinds (300 chips; ~1/16th of the worst case effective stack) often enough... So I guess he's praying for a call from a worse hand, meaning he has AA?

In which case, Hero's AA is a fold. Why play AA when it's a 1:1 dog? That's the worst possible time to play AA, compounded by the fact that the money is still one place away.

Obviously, there's a reason I don't play tournaments, and if I knew what ICM calculations were, I would've included one. Maybe somebody can help me out instead of mocking and locking like last night? This is the BC, right?

SNG's are totally different from cash games. On the bubble, big stack will typically shove a really really wide range and everyone else will have to fold or risk bubbling, so big stack can just hoover up the blinds.

Originally Posted by couriermike

SNG's are totally different from cash games. On the bubble, big stack will typically shove a really really wide range and everyone else will have to fold or risk bubbling, so big stack can just hoover up the blinds.

Ah, I get it. Using the bubble to your advantage when you can't be bubbled. So he's shoving with like 30% here? It still feels lilke a whole lotta risk for only a little reward... or is he just keeping the short stack short so he can't stick around?

After playing with it a bit, it looks like AA is always a call on the bubble. But if it was hero BB 300, CO 14400, BTN 100, SB 200, then KK would be a fold.

To make folding AA right, your equity would have to barely change even after doubling up. So it's probably only a DON thing.

Originally Posted by manfredi

Ah, I get it. Using the bubble to your advantage when you can't be bubbled. So he's shoving with like 30% here? It still feels lilke a whole lotta risk for only a little reward... or is he just keeping the short stack short so he can't stick around?

probably close to 100%

Originally Posted by couriermike

After playing with it a bit, it looks like AA is always a call on the bubble. But if it was hero BB 300, CO 14400, BTN 100, SB 200, then KK would be a fold.

To make folding AA right, your equity would have to barely change even after doubling up. So it's probably only a DON thing.

No, just 99% of the time. Say we had 800 chips and other stacks were ~ 7K, 100, 6K. We can fold AA in spots like that because doubling up isn't worth much.

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

--The Payout structure is also appears cleverly laid out so as to make playing for 3rd or second as valuable or more valuable than playing for first. Which actually happens often in tournament environments.

I used the standard 9-man SNG payout structure.

The only reason I'd fold here is because of the Button about to blind out in two hands. However I think most of us have seen some really low stack double up a few times in a row and survive the low stack on the bubble play.

It's true that the big stack is probably shoving pretty wide ranges here, but it also depends on if you have been paying attention and practicing ranges when the CO has been to showdown. If he's proven to be making right plays all game, then I could fold (again, only because of the short stack possibly blinding out). But if the CO's been loose and catching bottom pairs all game I'd snap call.


I'll probably call here anyway, and then curse when I realize I allowed the Button to profit, (or cheer when I take the commanding lead).

Originally Posted by celtic123

I think I read somewhere at FTR that , its better to finish 2nd twice , than 1st once . Is this what you are pointing out here ?

I've only seen the math in a few places, and I've never paid attention because tournaments are my thing, and you get warned not to mix the two games.

The last place I saw it explained was Mike Caro's latest book. I don't remember if he goes into the math, I do remember the natural language explanation was that in the tournament first place is penalized by having to split his winnings with the rest of the field. So It's more advantageous to play for the closest major shift in $ plateaus than to play for first place because the ICM begins to slough off over time.

this is diff, its a SnG, here people shove 99+ in some cases and its considered a good shove. in cash shoving 99, 1010, JJ without damn good reads its -EV right? anyway i think its totally different in play style and decision making, but AA with just one opp i dont think its a fold even if he has us covered. worst case you are 70% favourite, best case 90%.... so why fold? to get ITM? fold this and then get 200 hands like 73, 92 and sit. maybe you will get lucky and get ITM but a better card then AA you wont get so i say its a call even here. if it was 3 way all in, maybe then.... but HU i cant find a fold.

I think it's a fold (just from a purely ICM perspective).

as we're sitting we have 35.8% equity in tourney

If we call
& win we have 49%
call & lose 0%

Without doing the calculation (I know.. this is grounds for 'delete post')... just from looking at what we gain by calling & winning, in comparison to what we lose when we call & lose (35.8% vs. 49%) it seems like a fold. But this also isn't taking into consideration how 'if we call & win' how it'll affect future play in the game (dynamics of the game). Blinds are also still fairly low.

I guess I should actually do the numbers... 'but'.. I think it is a FOLD!!

Seems that many are focusing their attention on how wide villain is shoving here in this spot. Does it really matter? (I mean whether we're 81/19 or if villain has 32o & we're 87/13... I don't think this is what affects our answer much at all in this spot).

Originally Posted by Poker Orifice

I think it's a fold (just from a purely ICM perspective).

as we're sitting we have 35.8% equity in tourney

If we call
& win we have 49% < --- no 44.64%
call & lose 0%

44.64 * .85 = 37.95 = assumes 85% equity vs range.

37.985 > 35.8

This is a super +ev call guys. The fact that doubling up gives us a dominating lead makes it so. Yes ICM exists and thats why you need about 80% equity to call here.


Uhm, crap I'm pretty sure we don't get 49% of the prize pool if we win this . . edited.

Correct #s is 44.64 % of prize pool for doubling..

It's a call indeed, although it is somewhat counterintuitive at a glance. I ran it through SNG Wiz (the math is easy to do manually but a bit long and tedious). Even if CO open-pushes only 66+,AJ+,ATs+, we are 84% favorite to win against this range, and when we win our stack becomes so huge that it makes us a massive favorite to win. If we fold we remain very likely to finish second. So between the two situations our equity roughly goes from 0.3 to 0.5 of the "1" prize pool. So (again roughly), when we call, 85% of the time we profit 0.2 and 15% of the time we loose 0.3, so we profit in average 0.125. When we fold we profit 0. So calling is better.

KK only becomes a call when CO pushes stupidly wide (55% of hands).

against a range of only AA KK AKs we have 79.711. (i got pokerstove woop). I may have done the math wrong cos I'm well new to it and I'm only copying not really understanding

44.64*.79711= 35.58

35.58<35.8............fold lol
I never would fuck that.

I SNG whiz'd it vs a tight range and it said call AA+. vs a bit looser of a range KK+. our edge vs the tight range was really thin such that if you can expect to make up more than that edge by folding and letting the button bust out then I think you should fold... if you can't expect folding to help you gain more overall EV then you should call because you should be taking every single +$ev opportunity in the case where you don't expect passing on some of these thin spots to yield you higher returns from future opportunties.

it's similar to a spot where its +$ev to jam any two cards blind vs blind with 10bb stacks in the early game, but doesn't necessarily mean you should jam 100% if jamming less will be good for your image and make your jams in the late game more +$ev.

Vs a KK+,AKs range, it's indeed a fold.

I cant believe so many think its a fold ?
are you crazy i understand the way your thinking but you aint gonna get much of a better spot to wrap up the game right now.

I'd Snap Call this in a phil hellmuth style shoving my chips everywere!
We are playing to win the game right?

Lays down a monster. Should have paid me off on that. The fuck did you lay that down?

The rule is this: you spot a man's tell, you don't say a fucking word.

i agree even when you put him on AA you could still be wrong. he would have to show me his aces for me to consider it then i would prolly call for the laugh. i don't see how calling with the nuts is -ev Im not scared of a tie..... fuck a tie. we are like 82% against a pair if he's tight its KK who cares if we go in 50/50with a big chance of a tie and only like 3% loss/win if other times its 82/18. we are worse off if he flips 8/9s than KK and AKs is a fucking joke vs us.
Am I wrong.....I am drunk.....I CALL THIS ALL DAY AND THE NEXT DAY.

Originally Posted by daviddem

When we fold we profit 0.

Not here. Our equity in the tournament changes if we fold, etc.

Originally Posted by kickass

i agree even when you put him on AA you could still be wrong. he would have to show me his aces for me to consider it then i would prolly call for the laugh. i don't see how calling with the nuts is -ev Im not scared of a tie..... fuck a tie. we are like 82% against a pair if he's tight its KK who cares if we go in 50/50with a big chance of a tie and only like 3% loss/win if other times its 82/18. we are worse off if he flips 8/9s than KK and AKs is a fucking joke vs us.
Am I wrong.....I am drunk.....I CALL THIS ALL DAY AND THE NEXT DAY.

Your post doesn't include anything about ICM, and it does include some drunk ramblings. So, while I should delete this post as per my instructions in the OP, it's really funny so I'm going to leave it.

Other things to consider... Our edge or lack thereof over the CO. Is having a monstrous chip lead over the two remaining stacks going to offset the small risk we take on not cashing by getting this in? I think the only way I would ever fold this is if it was a DoN and my entire life roll was on the line.

Here I'm going to show a way to compare calling to folding using ICM, ignoring that there is an extremely short stack left in the tournament who is about to hit the blinds. The equivalent calculation for cash would just be a simple comparison of bet/(bet+pot) to our equity against our opponent's range, but here it's more complicated.

Let's assume for simplicity that if we call, either we win or we lose. Let the chance of winning (ie: our equity) be E.

Case 1: We call and win. Before blinds are posted in the next hand, we will have a stack of 10100 in the SB, another player will have 2400 in the BB, a player will have 100 in the CO, and a player will have 1000 in the BU. That gives us an equity in the tournament of 44.5% based on the ICM.

Case 2: We call and lose. Our equity in the tournament is now 0%.

Our total equity in the tournament for calling is then 0.445E + 0(1-E) which is just 0.445E.

If we fold, then before the blinds are posted in the next hand, we will have 4800 chips in the SB, the BU will have 1000 chips, the CO will have 100 chips, and the BB will have 7700 chips. In this case we have an equity of 35.38% in the tournament based on the ICM. Therefore, folding is better than calling when:

0.445E < 0.3538
E < 0.7951

So we need 79.51% equity to call here. Notice how much difference there is between this number and how much equity we would need to be able to call in a cash game.

Now we open PokerStove and look at some ranges for when we hold AA as follows:

Against QQ+, we have 79.305% equity.
Against PokerStove's top 2%, we have 79.887% equity.
Against PokerStove's top 5%, we have 83.043% equity.
Against PokerStove's top 8%, we have 84.197% equity.
Against PokerStove's top 11%, we have 84.678% equity.

Now the way I have presented this, we can figure out what range we should call with against any of our opponent's ranges. For example, if we have KK and our opponent is shoving {JJ+, AK} here, then we have 62.601% equity and should fold.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Not here. Our equity in the tournament changes if we fold, etc.

What I meant is that our equity in the tournament does not change much when we fold so for quick and dirty estimates at the table we can consider the delta equity to be zero when we fold.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

I SNG whiz'd it vs a tight range and it said call AA+. vs a bit looser of a range KK+. our edge vs the tight range was really thin such that if you can expect to make up more than that edge by folding and letting the button bust out then I think you should fold... if you can't expect folding to help you gain more overall EV then you should call because you should be taking every single +$ev opportunity in the case where you don't expect passing on some of these thin spots to yield you higher returns from future opportunties.

it's similar to a spot where its +$ev to jam any two cards blind vs blind with 10bb stacks in the early game, but doesn't necessarily mean you should jam 100% if jamming less will be good for your image and make your jams in the late game more +$ev.

Your edge doesn't come from the fact that the btn is about to bust. Your edge comes from being better then your opponents. In this scenario is the CO is a very good player, we will have VERY little edge because he has position on us. If however he was on our direct right we'd have a larger edge even if he was a superior player. If we are a much better player then him(The other 2 players are less relevant cause they are so short) then we are able to make folds like this v a tight range and even a slightly looser then tight range just because we can have an advantage over him in the future like in HU or 3handed for example or by having him play bad when we are minraising etc.

I don't see how you could fold AA here... First of all it would seem like he is just trying to play the bully stack and steal some blinds here, if we call and win we would be in great shape to take this tournament.

Originally Posted by imallinaakk

I don't see how you could fold AA here... First of all it would seem like he is just trying to play the bully stack and steal some blinds here, if we call and win we would be in great shape to take this tournament.

Hey I bet if you read the thread you could figure it out!

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Hey I bet if you read the thread you could figure it out!

I did read it ....just think that in a situation like this if we bust on the bubble it def. sucks, but for the few times (less than 30%) that we bust, 70% of the time we have a dominate stack and probably 80% of that we take down 1st place just by having this one hand go our way. I just think that this situation changes a lot when we are in a tournament where 1st - 3rd are all paying out the same (like in a satellite) but in a typical tournament where 1st is what we are shooting for we have to go for it.

Originally Posted by imallinaakk

I did read it ....just think that in a situation like this if we bust on the bubble it def. sucks, but for the few times (less than 30%) that we bust, 70% of the time we have a dominate stack and probably 80% of that we take down 1st place just by having this one hand go our way. I just think that this situation changes a lot when we are in a tournament where 1st - 3rd are all paying out the same (like in a satellite) but in a typical tournament where 1st is what we are shooting for we have to go for it.

The thing is that it's possible to be more exact with our answers, and that's the point of the thread.

Should the fact that he's the big chip stack and therefore potentially the best player at the table be factored in. I mean if he has the big chip stack because he's a better player we should snap call no???

Originally Posted by Wikkiwikki

Should the fact that he's the big chip stack and therefore potentially the best player at the table be factored in. I mean if he has the big chip stack because he's a better player we should snap call no???

What. Since when does stack size have to do with skill level?

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

What. Since when does stack size have to do with skill level?

since darmut moon

meh should of read, sure someone already answered, but as primarily a sng/tourny player this is for my own purposes, i think this

simplified: 35.73(equity if we fold)/45.00(equity if we win) = 79.4 (equity needed to call)

-this is a call against his range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

70,204,464 games 0.125 secs 561,635,712 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.596% 83.05% 01.54% 58307492 1082585.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 15.404% 13.86% 01.54% 9731802 1082585.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


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