set on turn, board 7cJcQs10s, 5 handed

[Finn]

Hello guy´s

Sorry but I can´t use the converter yet...

I feel that I have played this hand not optimal and would like to now how to do better.

So first, here´s the hand and afterwards I will tell you what I´m thinking.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed)

SB ($5.02)
BB ($2.18)
UTG ($10.16)
UTG+1 ($4.21)
MP1 ($9.21)
MP2 ($12.74)
MP3 ($4.12)
Hero (CO) ($5.17)
Button ($5)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10c 10d
UTG calls $0.05,
UTG+1 bets $0.20,
2 folds
MP3 calls $0.20,
Hero calls $0.20,
Button calls $0.20,
UTG calls $0.15

Flop (5handed): ($1.07) 7cJcQs

UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button checks

Turn (5handed): ($1.07) 10s

UTG+1 bets $0.55
1 fold
Hero raises $1.25
Button raises $4.80 (All-In)
1 fold
UTG+1 calls $3.46 (All-In)

Total pot: $10.34


UTG: 8 hands, 50/25/0 seems like a loose fish because of his bet sizing in one hand (one bb).
BU: 244 hands, 18/17/4,35 good solid player but nothing special on him

Preflop: I´m calling for set mining. Don´t want to raise because utg+1 is 21/6 in 108 hands.

Flop:
don´t like the flop and would have mucked my cards against a raise.

Turn:
don´t like the turn either because there is a good chance I´m behind but after the half pot raise I don´t want any flushes in the hand so I raise and give it a try. (maybe a little small, but I don´t want to put too many in there - maybe throw it away/bigger??)
When button pushes and utg calls it´s clear I´m behind but I decided to call because of my 10 outs, the fish and in the long run I´m loosing more if I throw it away.

Pokerstove for the turn:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

83,496 games 0.047 secs 1,776,510 games/sec

Board: 7c Jc Qs Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.368% 23.37% 00.00% 19511 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 43.711% 38.18% 05.53% 31880 4617.00 { AKs, QTs+, 98s, AKo, QJo, 98o }
Hand 2: 32.921% 27.39% 05.53% 22871 4617.00 { JJ, 77, AQs+, KQs, JTs, 98s, AQo+, JTo, 98o }


Either way, on the turn I can´t really decide what´s good - take a stab, throw it away, maybe calling (wich seems bad)??

[Savy]

Raise preflop, too many people in the pot problem solved. Pocket 10s are scared of JJ+. The only hand he is unlikely to shove with is maybe JJ, QQ+ gets it in and you can fold.

Turn raise is ok, I'd say the sizing should be slightly larger.

What are your 10 outs? If you meant T, J, Q, 7. Do you really think that no one who got the chips in has any of these cards in their ranges?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Definitely raise pre.

Everything that is difficult about this hand is from failure to raise and steal dead money or iso a Villain.

BU: 244 hands, 18/17/4,35 good solid player but nothing special on him

This is a leak. 244 hands and no notes.

You should have a note on someone by 50 or so hands. Give or take. I mean... it's just a number I pulled out of the air because it seems like about the number of hands I play against someone before they do something that strikes me a either odd or lolbad.

[rpm]

are you guys aware the pot was raised preflop before action came to hero, or are you advocating 3-betting?

[Savy]

I was advocating 3betting.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I was advocating cold 3-betting.

Are you advocating NOT cold 3-betting?

[surviva316]

Are you advocating NOT cold 3-betting?

If I'm not mistaken, the original raiser is 21/6 over a decent sample; like 50% of that range is AK/QQ+.

If we flat we're basically gonna be in a good tweener spot with a decent made hand to play against bad/passive players (though it helps to have notes on MP3) in pretty good position, and in a heavenly spot with a top/mid set type hand (in probably a 4+ way pot).

If we squeeze, we iso and assure that we get position. But let's say his PFR range is AJ+/99+, and his 4b range is AK/QQ+ and he flats everything else. So when he 4bs, we lose our 13-14bb's against hands that we likely would have lost less against when we missed, and coulda won big against if we binked the flop. When he flats, we might make some change off of him if the board doesn't have any broadways on it (but not much unless he's horrendous postflop), and then we're like flipping against the 99-JJ part of his range.

I mean, I'm making a lot of assumptions based on a small sample; I'm really just illustrating a point more than anything.

BTW, when I first read the HH, I thought he was saying that the PFR was 50/25 and a likely fish over 8 hands, at which point I was like YOU DIDN'T SQUEEZE PREFLOP AND NOW I DON'T CARE WHAT ELSE YOU'VE DONE IN THE HAND!!!!

[MadMojoMonkey]

If I'm not mistaken, the original raiser is 21/6 over a decent sample; like 50% of that range is AK/QQ+.

Yah. I missed that.

I def. see the flat call against this villain if we get to play HU post-flop.

I don't like taking a multi-way flop with TT, though. Maybe a small 3-bet (~$0.50) to iso, and take advantage of any fold equity against this guy?

I mean... the flop is terrible for TT. With 2 overs and a FD out there, TT barely has showdown value and that's still a couple of streets away.

The turn feels like the best or worst card in the deck, and 5-handed it's probably the worst. In play, I'd probably raise/call OTT, but I think it's a leak and should be a call/fold.

[surviva316]

I don't like taking a multi-way flop with TT, though. Maybe a small 3-bet (~$0.50) to iso, and take advantage of any fold equity against this guy?

I mean... the flop is terrible for TT. With 2 overs and a FD out there, TT barely has showdown value and that's still a couple of streets away.

Reopening the action like that is a bad idea when such a large percent of villain's range is AK/QQ+. We're basically just finding creative ways to push ourselves out of the hand when, if nothing else, we have a beauuuuutiful set mining situation.

And, by the way, it isn't nothing else, because TT plays okay in position in a 4-way pot against bad passive players (we will often get the effective button here, thanks to the actual button only having a 1% VPIP/PFR split, but even if he's someone who might shrug-flat here getting such a good price, it will still be an okay spot). If we're any kind of good postflop, then any spot where we have an overpair and we're getting action from anyone but the original raiser will net us some nice profits.

It's unpleasant in the sense that now we have to buckle down and play poker with a hand that usually allows us to be more easily ahead of bad players, but that doesn't mean we should find ways to get us into more straightforward but less profitable spots.

[griffey24]

You're faced with a simple allin-call decision, so your first place to look should be assigning reasonable ranges for each person and checking if you have the correct odds to call using pokerstove.

I think how you played the hand was fine. Turn I can go either way, with flatting the turn lead due to AK paranoia sometimes and raising others depending on my feel.

utg range is probably AK, maybe one combo of QQ, KJss maybe.
button range is probably 89s, K9s, KJss maybe.

[Savy]

*deleted rubbish*

When button pushes and utg calls it´s clear I´m behind but I decided to call because of my 10 outs, the fish and in the long run I´m loosing more if I throw it away.

Btw this isn't true. Money in the pot is dead money. You want to always make the most +ev decision available at the time.

[d0zer]

As you'll no doubt over/under value your hand.

Sure, if you suck postflop I guess you could build your preflop strategy around that but it begs the question "why not just work on your postflop game?".

Problem with 3betting pre is that we're going to fold out the megafish UTG, and UTG+1's range is already probably stronger than TT, but his continuing range is much stronger than TT.

[Savy]

Thought original raiser was UTG and UTG+1 was flatting, so nvm.

[Finn]

Hy

Should have made it a little clearer who raises first preflop, so sorry for that.
If the 50/25 raises first I would have raised 3x to isolate him (hopefully).

After reading through your replies I gain a bit more confidence that it was the right desicion to take a stab and not to bad. Think maybe folding would be ok too but I don´´t like calling here because it prices possible flushes in.

Ok, my thinking on the turn was that I have to call $3,72 to win $14,06. and have about 25% odds to call. My range what I give both of them was a little wide and I think griffey´´s is more accurate so we have 20,673% equity (pokerstove).

But it doesn´´t change my thinking that we will win 20,673 * $14,06 =$290,66
and will loose

[Finn]

79,327 * $3,72 = 295,09644

So it´s a call, isn´t it? I mean if I fold I loose 100 * $1,45 = $145
It´s dead money but in this case I will loose much more!?

Sorry for double post!!

[HarryHatless]

I don't get this, "if I fold I loose 100 * $1,45 = $145". Where do these numbers come from?

If you fold then you don't lose anything.

[Savy]

That's what I meant by money you have already put into the pot being dead money. It's gone.

You should always make the most +EV decision in a cash game, in tournaments I'd assume it's a little different as your stack is all you have, whereas in cash games you should never be sat down with a huge chunk of your BR.

[Finn]

Mmh.. I understand what you are saying, but shouldn´t we choose the descicion where we loose less in the long run? I mean we have outs to win the pot.
Shurely it is -EV but in my head(^^) it´s less -EV than folding.

The money is dead but I had invested a bit and will loose less in the hand when I go for it.

But maybe I´m totally wrong! mmh... Maybe you can explain it a little more so I can understand?

[griffey24]

All that matters is that there is $10.86 in the pot (that includes the money you have already invested), and you have to call $3.55 on the river.

So you're getting 3.06:1 to call (10.86/3.55), so you need 24.6% equity to call (1/(1+3.06)).

So the only question is whether or not, under reasonable assumptions of ranges, pokerstove tells you that you have 24.6% equity or more to call.

If you have more tan that, the call is correct (+EV), if you have less than that (as in this case - where you are estimating 20.673% equity), then the call is a mistake and -EV.

It's not a significant mistake calling, but it's a -EV play. I'm sure if you were wanting to call JT or something here it would be a much bigger mistake.

[daviddem]

Mmh.. I understand what you are saying, but shouldn´t we choose the descicion where we loose less in the long run? I mean we have outs to win the pot.
Shurely it is -EV but in my head(^^) it´s less -EV than folding.

The money is dead but I had invested a bit and will loose less in the hand when I go for it.

But maybe I´m totally wrong! mmh... Maybe you can explain it a little more so I can understand?

What you have to understand is that the EV of folding is 0 because, as has been said above, the money you already invested in the pot is not yours anymore, it belongs to the pot, it is part of the dead money that is up for grabs. In other words, you have already "lost" this money, so if you fold now, you don't win anything and you don't loose anything more, so the EV of folding now is 0.

So if the EV of calling is less than 0, then calling is worse than folding. If the EV of calling is greater than 0, then calling is better than folding.

The shortcut to know if the EV of calling is greater than 0 is to compare your equity and your pot odds. If the equity is greater than the pot odds, then the EV of the call is greater than zero and calling is better.

edit: actually, to take rake into account, you need your equity to be 1 to 2.6% greater than your pot odds for a profitable call.

re-edit:
- when you call and you win, your profit will be exactly the amount of money in the total pot before your call, including the money that you put in there yourself on previous plays (and minus rake)
- when you call and you loose, your loss will be the amount you called

So if E is your equity, P is the money in the pot before your call, and C is the amount you have to call, then your EV is (without taking rake into account to simplify):
EP - (1-E)B
And so your EV is > 0 if:
EP - (1-E)B > 0
EP - B + EB > 0
E(P+B) - B > 0
E(P+B) > B
E > B / (P+B)
and since B / (P+B) are your pot odds on the call, we have just proved the shortcut: for your EV to be greater than 0, you need your equity to be greater than the pot odds.

Taking rake into account, (assuming 5% rake, applied to the total pot including your call) your EV would be:
E(P-0.05(P+B)) - (1-E)B
and your EV is > 0 if:
E(P-0.05(P+B)) - B + EB > 0
E(P-0.05P-0.05B+B) - B > 0
0.95E(P+B) > B
E > B / (0.95(P+B))
E > 1.0526 * B/(P+B)

So roughly, add 5% to your pot odds to find the minimum equity you need for a profitable call. For example if your pot odds were 30%, you would need about 31.5% equity to call profitably.

For more details about the calculations, see the two following threads:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ad-180192.html

[Malbrack]

Finn, I had trouble wrapping my head around this too at first. The idea of treating earlier betting rounds as dead money seemed a little strange to me because I could invest 99% of my stack on the flop and then have the pot odds to "profitably" call a turn bet with literally anything. But that would really mean that I probably made a huge -EV move on the flop just to have a fractionally +EV call on the turn. Nevertheless, I would still be right to call the turn in such a scenario because that individual choice is +EV and I have to make each decision one at a time.

Think about each decision as splitting into a number possible worlds. Let's say you raise 99 preflop for value to go heads up in position against a fish. Most possible postflop scenarios are profitable for you, so your decision is +EV. In one possible world you flop A94. Jackpot. In another world you flop AQJ. In this second world, even though the flop sucks for you now, your preflop decision was still good. Even if you end up folding to a bet here, in enough other worlds you're making money. That's why you can treat your previous investment as no longer your money. Now you calculate your EV for this decision/world, and move on. Anyway, I hope my metaphor and example were more helpful than confusing.

[Savy]

Mmh.. I understand what you are saying, but shouldn´t we choose the descicion where we loose less in the long run? I mean we have outs to win the pot.
Shurely it is -EV but in my head(^^) it´s less -EV than folding.

The money is dead but I had invested a bit and will loose less in the hand when I go for it.

But maybe I´m totally wrong! mmh... Maybe you can explain it a little more so I can understand?

This is how you make the most over the long run.

Every street you are faced with a decision, the aim of poker is to always make the most +EV decision.


Let's say you have 22 and raise with one caller.

Flop is 2QQ. You bet, opponent calls.

Turn is a Q. You bet, opponent calls.

River is a Q.

It's very likely you have only ever put money in the pot whilst being favourite to win the hand, however on the river you now have the worst hand possible.

So you have only made +EV decisions, however betting now (assuming opponent never folds) is very -EV. Whereas if you fold the decision has an EV of 0. Which is better than the -EV decision of betting.

Your EV is your expected value, most of the time we don't expect for the river to be a Q which loses us the hand. Whereas assuming any other card means we still win the hand we expect to win this hand a lot more often than we lose it.

Obviously though, most poker decisions are more complicated than this otherwise the game would be very easy :P

[Finn]

Ok guys. After your posts I viewed a few hand histories to convince myself, but even now it´s difficult for me to see the benefit of folding in the hand after the raises. My thoughts are that this may be an exeption and bla bla...

Don´t know what´s gotten into me. Normaly I would say -EV play? - NOT GOOD! But here I have the feeling that I commited myself with my turn bet and these 2 All Inns

BUT - you are probably right! So maybe I have to learn it the hard way - at least in some spots.

Thanks everybody for your thoughts and good explanation. My head is not totally convinced but you helped me to get on the way!

[daviddem]

Ok guys. After your posts I viewed a few hand histories to convince myself, but even now it´s difficult for me to see the benefit of folding in the hand after the raises. My thoughts are that this may be an exeption and bla bla...

Don´t know what´s gotten into me. Normaly I would say -EV play? - NOT GOOD! But here I have the feeling that I commited myself with my turn bet and these 2 All Inns

BUT - you are probably right! So maybe I have to learn it the hard way - at least in some spots.

Thanks everybody for your thoughts and good explanation. My head is not totally convinced but you helped me to get on the way!

Try and apply the math above to your particular hand. Then you will see that calling is a -EV play. The point is that, on average, you loose more money than you win when you call. So it's better to fold and loose 0.

[MadMojoMonkey]

The ONLY thing that commits you to the pot is when your equity is greater than your odds.

Don't pay attention to TV commentators who talk about being pot-committed without offering any explanation of why that's the case. It's about equity (which is a function of ranges) and pot odds.

[Savy]

Being pot committed is only a notion which applies when you have a limited stack like in a tournament (probably other situations too), but in online poker when your stack just gets refilled next hand the only thing that matters is pot odds.

In a sense if you have 2cent after seeing the flop and the pot is $10 (this should never happen btw) then you are obviously always going all in, because you'll always have pot odds. Which is the important thing.