Quote Originally Posted by Fnord
I would need to know more about UTG+2 to put him on a set.
yes. but even just reading the board without ANY player reads at all should be alarming to qq.

1. the player making the min-raise is immediately to the left of the pf raiser, meaning that hes likely got strong starters, as opposed to say myself entering the pot with KQ on the button because of the multi-way action.

2. no information on a ragged flop, because there is no betting, but the interesting thing is that the pot is not built, meaning that it becomes less desireable for an attempted steal on later streets.

3. the minraise. this should be a beautiful board for qq, so im alarmed the second i meet resistance. if we consider point one, i think now we have to now be convinced we are facing a pair. AA and KK are unlikely, but possible. JJ is the hand we pray he has, but if we had him dominated preflop, there is now a very good (2/3 with jacks tens or nines) chance he has setted. it is inconceivable to me (by strictly reading the board) that this minraise could be made by an even smaller pr that we can beat or say AT.

4. the final tip off for me is the size of the bet being raised by UTG2. UTG2 is not raising here because QQ made a weak bet into the pot, allowing him to think that he could knock the pf raiser off the hand. QQ showed the 'strength' of his hand by betting full pot oop. once the set makes this realization, he comes out of the weeds.

ill risk making a bad fold with qq in this spot oop especially on the turn because i know i have to fight through another street of betting when i could be in a really bad spot. this is not the type of board that UTG2 would be making a raise 'for information'. and there are exactly zero draws out there (QJ could not exist?)

player reads are great, but simple logic has to be part of the equation.