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 Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
The part that makes it bad is the fact that you have him pegged as the table donator. You have seen him make some terrible plays. He has alot more in his range here than just what beats you, yet because you lost this time you want to check back river. Your ahead of his calling range on this river, therefore shoving the river is profitable. If you are ahead of the range he calls the river with only 51% of the time, then a shove is correct. Look at some of the hands this bad of a player would call the river with, and throw them in pokerstove and see if you have >51% equity.
Thanks stacks. I had a look into this with pokerstove, really I have a crapload of equity against this player. I felt this during the hand, and i insta called his shove over and said to myself cooler/suckout if he has AT. I believed he would fold river and decided on an amount he may have called with TP.
The fact is that I shoulve bet harder on all streets but I didnt want to scare him out of the pot because I felt he may have a TP type hand. He liteterally blew 2 buy ins in the last 20hands chasing to the river and folding to a 1/8th-1/10th pot sized bet. I just really didnt want to blow him out of the pot, doing so I let him draw reasonably cheaply(for his standards).
The main reason I posted this hand was to see if anyone thought betting/shoving against this particular player with my read is profitable.
Im really happy that it generated so much discussion, thanks to everyone that has contributed.
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