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Semibluffing

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  1. #1

    Default Semibluffing

    Let's say I'm in a hand with 7 other people, the board is Q92 with 2 clubs showing. I have A5 of clubs. 5 people check to me. Should I also check? Or should I bet? What should I bet? There is no way my semibluff is going to succeed and everybody is going to fold. Should I bet 2/3 the pot to get other chasers out of the hand? Suggestions?

    Is betting with a flush draw bad practice?
  2. #2
    No in that situation I would bet the pot if the call then check the turn and take your free card.
  3. #3
    FlyingSaucy's Avatar
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    Beware of doing this too much because people can catch on really quickly.
    Some people get really annoyed by players who seem to bet way too often when the pot is checked to them.

    Also, if you are on a table full of loose callers (which you probably are if 7 people are seeing the flop!!) it is better to just check since if they hit anything at all on the flop, they will call and are still ahead.
    Example, in your case, your opponent might call your bet even with a pair of 9's. And they are calling unknowingly with good odds since you are only on a draw.
  4. #4
    I wouldn't bet. It's not likely that 5 other players have absolutely nothing with that flop, and one of the players may even be attempting a check-raise with a set or two pair. If it is checked to you again on the turn, or one player makes a weak bet and everyone else folds, then I would maybe consider betting or raising, but I would probably just call. It's probably safest just to try to make your flush and win the pot with the best hand.

    Also, it's entirely possible that other players have draws to lesser flushes, in which case you don't want to bet them out of the pot.
  5. #5
    Assuming no one has a great hand like pocket Q’s, 9’s, or 2’s, or two pair, you have nine outs to the flush and 3 more for top pair and even a remote runner, runner straight or straight flush possibility which isn’t worth an out.

    If you’re pretty sure you won’t get re-raised or see heavy action on the turn or flop, I’d bet somewhere less than the 45% of the pot, which is the odds you’ll get your hand if you see it to the river. The bet might win you the hand right there since all but one person has showed weakness and you’ll have position on all of them except one for the rest of the hand. If you'd rather play it safe for fear that one of those premium hands are out there, bet less than 35% of the pot to maintain the proper odds (9 outs instead of 12).

    That’s a basic approach, but there’s more to consider like the personality of all players – especially the one who has yet to act, the action pre-flop, your image, and so on.
    - Jason

  6. #6
    Actually, my betting numbers are off because I neglected, as I often do, to factor in the pot odds you'll be getting with callers. So, if you bet the pot and get one caller, you're effectively getting 50% odds and it keeps dropping with more callers.
    - Jason

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Jason
    Assuming no one has a great hand like pocket Q’s, 9’s, or 2’s, or two pair, you have nine outs to the flush and 3 more for top pair and even a remote runner, runner straight or straight flush possibility which isn’t worth an out.

    If you’re pretty sure you won’t get re-raised or see heavy action on the turn or flop, I’d bet somewhere less than the 45% of the pot, which is the odds you’ll get your hand if you see it to the river. The bet might win you the hand right there since all but one person has showed weakness and you’ll have position on all of them except one for the rest of the hand. If you'd rather play it safe for fear that one of those premium hands are out there, bet less than 35% of the pot to maintain the proper odds (9 outs instead of 12).

    That’s a basic approach, but there’s more to consider like the personality of all players – especially the one who has yet to act, the action pre-flop, your image, and so on.
    I don't really understand this approach at all. As a player who is not a statistical favorite to win the pot (which you probably aren't if anyone has flopped anything), it makes no sense whatsoever to bet "for value," which seems to be what you're suggesting here. In this situation, you're betting for the sole purpose of getting your opponents to fold, since you will tend to have a losing hand on the river. The amount you bet has nothing to do with your odds of having a winning hand by the river, it has to do with your opponents willingness to fold. Your outs are just there to bail you out if this fails.
  8. #8
    semibluffing into 6 people sucks.

    semibluffing is a profitable strategy only when you have some what of a fold equity, which is pretty hard to get vs 6 people. getting checkraised here will devestate you...
    "Is there any chance I'm going to lay this 9-high baby down? That's really not my style."
    - Gus Hansen
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by dsaxton
    As a player who is not a statistical favorite to win the pot (which you probably aren't if anyone has flopped anything), it makes no sense whatsoever to bet "for value," which seems to be what you're suggesting here.
    You're betting for value and to get people to fold, since they've already shown weakness and you have position on them. Q, 9, 2 is a pretty uneventful flop by itself - knowing the pre-flop action and potsize would be good information to go with this. Maybe your ace high is still good, too. By just checking, maybe you're giving a guy in early position with 10-J a chance to draw his straight. If you get check raised, fold if the odds aren't worth a call - not a devastation.

    If you don't go after pots in late position, you'll always need strong hands to win. As a bonus for this case, you're drawing to the nut flush no less. Furthermore, you have to ask yourself, why am I even playing with A5 suited in the first place and what am I trying to do with it? It's a marginal hand, so when you play it, you're going for a straight or flush.

    I say if you don't feel comfortable betting in late position with those cards and that flop, then you made an error putting in money to get to this point.
    - Jason

  10. #10
    FlyingSaucy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jason
    By just checking, maybe you're giving a guy in early position with 10-J a chance to draw his straight.
    You made a few good points but I don't agree with this, at least not playing into 6 players assuming at least a few of them are loose callers. So, you get everyone but one or two guys to fold. Those guys have you beat. Any subsequent bets have to either be outrageously dangerous enough to get him to maybe fold, or you can check behind and show your weakness. Not too good of options, imo.
  11. #11
    You're betting for value and to get people to fold
    This makes no sense. How can you make a value bet into a pot where a player with any lowly pair will have the best hand by the river more than half the time?

    Assuming your opponent will call your bet with certainty, you're actually doing nothing but diminishing your own expected return when you bet with a draw. You don't want your opponents to call you when you bet with a draw.

    By just checking, maybe you're giving a guy in early position with 10-J a chance to draw his straight.
    This is also sort of silly. You're suggesting that you protect your ace high hand in a multiway pot against a player who might have a straight draw?
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by dsaxton
    You're betting for value and to get people to fold
    This makes no sense. How can you make a value bet into a pot where a player with any lowly pair will have the best hand by the river more than half the time?

    Assuming your opponent will call your bet with certainty, you're actually doing nothing but diminishing your own expected return when you bet with a draw. You don't want your opponents to call you when you bet with a draw.

    By just checking, maybe you're giving a guy in early position with 10-J a chance to draw his straight.
    This is also sort of silly. You're suggesting that you protect your ace high hand in a multiway pot against a player who might have a straight draw?
    headsup, it's -EV when you get called by while semibluffing. but making a small bet that you know will get called more than 2 people, you ensure profit because flush will come 35% of the time by river (hence nut-flush bettor's pot equity is 35%). just imagine difference between going allin with flushdraw in headsup and going allin with it vs 3 people. you gotta have pot equity higher than 25% in 4 way pot to ensure profit.

    this is easy valuebet in limit, but I think it's not as clear cut in NL. if anything I'll make a small bet (1/3~1/2 size of pot). I may semibluff vs 2 people, but it's generally very wrong to semibluff into field greater than 2.
    "Is there any chance I'm going to lay this 9-high baby down? That's really not my style."
    - Gus Hansen
  13. #13
    Sometimes I use semibluffing to disguise my hand. It always feels so transparent to wake up as soon as that 3rd suited card comes. Someone else may be on a straight draw, or they may think that their Q-high flush is the best since your hand is masked.
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by dsaxton
    You're suggesting that you protect your ace high hand in a multiway pot against a player who might have a straight draw?
    I'm suggesting that you need to use the power of position to put pressure on people and put them to task. Poker is not just about trying to get the best hand every deal and everyone turns their cards over and we see who wins.


    Quote Originally Posted by FlyingSaucy
    So, you get everyone but one or two guys to fold. Those guys have you beat
    Why/How do they have you beat? Why would they check or slowplay the flop and give you a chance to draw your flush if they had trips or even top pair for that matter? Why/How come you won't get one of your outs to win? Everyone checking after the flop generally represents weakness or at the very least, weak or passive play, so not only can you bet for value and possibly bluff people out, you can also represent Q(s) or another good hand - they don't know what you have.

    It's really tough to fully analyze or appreciate this hand not knowing the preflop action or the player types, but I don't see the value of checking a flush draw in late position to everyone. What's the payoff when the club comes on the turn? Do you think you'll be able to get money from them then? Unless someone is holding pocket clubs with a King, don't expect to get anything else outside of the pre-flop pot.
    - Jason

  15. #15
    I'd rather win a medium to small sized pot after making my flush than lose a larger one after getting called or raised and missing, which is not unlikely in this scenario.
  16. #16
    I have to agree with ilikeaces86...when you bet and check here you're chances of winning are higher if you are in position. 1- they could all fold. 2- you'll be heads up or 3-way with good chance they check to you. 3- if you hit the flush on either card you are less likely to get pegged on your cards and ups your implied odds greatly.

    Some other advantages are that if no one raises they are probably on a draw or slow playing. Either way they will likely check the turn. This play doesn't hurt too bad if you have to let it go and could pay off huge if and when you do hit. And who knows maybe pair the ace and call anything affordable.
  17. #17
    FlyingSaucy's Avatar
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    Again, this is all assuming you are in a pot with many loose passives, which it sounds like he probably is if there are 7 people seeing the flop.
    So to take your questions one by one with that in mind...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jason
    Why/How do they have you beat?
    They have you beat because if they are willing to call a 2/3 pot sized bet, their hand is almost certainly better than your ace high.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jason
    Why would they check or slowplay the flop and give you a chance to draw your flush if they had trips or even top pair for that matter?
    They aren't slow playing the flop. They are checking because they are passive and have no idea how to make a stand when they have marginal holdings. They'd rather someone else set the going rate and then decide if it is worth it to call. In fact they aren't concerned about what's in your hand, only what's in theirs, and they certainly aren't concerned about giving away free cards.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jason
    Why/How come you won't get one of your outs to win?
    If you hit your flush on the turn, great. I'm not assuming it's never going to happen, only that it is not profitable to make large bets on a flush draw if you can expect to get called by one or two players. The numbers put you outside of good pot odds. For example, say there's 10 in the pot with 6 other players. Flop gives you a nut flush draw, and it is checked to you. If you bet 8 here, you can expect to get called by an average of 1.5 players. (this is just my own estimate based on countless hours of play at passive tables like this). So that makes an 8:22 ratio for your pot odds on that move, which is less than it should be for your expected flush to complete. The 1.5 people who end up calling don't call because they are also on a flush draw, they call because they are weak and did not bet it out right when they hit something on the flop.
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by FlyingSaucy
    They have you beat because if they are willing to call a 2/3 pot sized bet, their hand is almost certainly better than your ace high.
    You make so many assumptions when you say that:

    1) You assume they will call - they may not
    2) You assume a call means their hand is better than yours, yet they checked the flop - they may be calling stations with nothing, they may have a draw, and there are many other possibilities which is what makes betting with position a viable option
    3) You assume that if their hand is better than yours that they will know this and use it to their advantage out of position - they don't know your cards, so in addition to the 12 outs you have, you can possibly represent Pocket A's, K's, or Qx.

    Quote Originally Posted by FlyingSaucy
    They aren't slow playing the flop. They are checking because they are passive and have no idea how to make a stand when they have marginal holdings. They'd rather someone else set the going rate and then decide if it is worth it to call. In fact they aren't concerned about what's in your hand, only what's in theirs, and they certainly aren't concerned about giving away free cards.
    More assumptions that I don't think apply to most players, but I'd certainly love to play with this kind of player - can't make a stand, would rather someone else set the tone, not concerned with my cards, not concerned with giving away free cards ... pardon me while I kiss the sky
    - Jason

  19. #19
    FlyingSaucy's Avatar
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    I understand your points, but again. I think my assumptions are all safe and reasonable based on my experience. We're not talking about playing at a 5/10 NL table here. This is most likely a micro limit ring game and I'm assuming that based on the fact that there is a ridiculous number of people in on the flop that it is a loose passive game. I'm not denying anything about my assumptions on that. Analysis of any situation is full of conjectures and assumptions, especially in poker where there are so many unknowns. So I set the stage by stating my assumptions up front.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jason
    1) You assume they will call - they may not
    2) You assume a call means their hand is better than yours, yet they checked the flop - they may be calling stations with nothing, they may have a draw, and there are many other possibilities which is what makes betting with position a viable option
    3) You assume that if their hand is better than yours that they will know this and use it to their advantage out of position - they don't know your cards, so in addition to the 12 outs you have, you can possibly represent Pocket A's, K's, or Qx.
    1. You're right, all 6 of them might fold. Then again, based on my experience the vast majority of the time you'll get one or two callers who don't trust you because you are last to act and they think you are looking to steal, and don't want to give up their silly little pair (which has you beat, by the way).
    2. You're right that they might also be on a worse draw. But most of the time if they call they will be ahead of your ace high.
    3. I'm not assuming that. In fact I'm assuming the opposite. That they don't know your cards and have no idea how to use position in any regard.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jason
    More assumptions that I don't think apply to most players, but I'd certainly love to play with this kind of player - can't make a stand, would rather someone else set the tone, not concerned with my cards, not concerned with giving away free cards ... pardon me while I kiss the sky
    Of course it doesn't apply to most players, again I made an assumption and stated it up front that you are playing loose callers.

    I urge you to find a .05/.10 NL (or even .01/.02) table with 5-6 people regularly seeing the flop, and bet out all of your flush draws from late position like this. See how it goes. I can tell you that I've done this strategy over tens of thousands of hands and it only works at tighter tables. In SnG's with a big stack it is an awesome idea. At tight tables with one other limper ahead of you it is an awesome idea. At a loose passive table full of 6 or 7 limpers, it is just horrible strategy. That's all my point really was.
  20. #20
    Why would they check or slowplay the flop and give you a chance to draw your flush if they had trips or even top pair for that matter?
    It's unlikely 7 players are all going to check the flop when you have no information about how they're going to act (it's not unlikely that a player is holding a hand like Q-J in this scenario), so it makes sense to check-raise with a set rather than bet. This puts enormous pressure on any players who happen to be drawing and generates a larger pot in the flop, which I think makes it preferable to leading out.
  21. #21
    ..and here is where I say, it's good that everyone has a different opinion on how to play this situation, because if everyone played the same way, poker would be one hell of a boring game.
    SnGs Played: 7

    1st: 3
    2nd: 0
    3rd: 2
    4th-10th: 2

    ITM %: 71.4

    Total Profit: +$660
  22. #22
    Need more info.

    How big is the pot? How big is your stack, an your opponents?

    If I'm in a dominating chip position I put pressure on with a bet. If there is a bet ahead of me I raise significantly if I get a read that the bet was a probe or continuation.

    If the flush doesn't hit on 4th you are likely to get a free card to the river. In this regard you save a bet if you were planning to draw to it anyway.

    With a shorter stack, check and see the card every time. Either that or push in like you are protecting from it maniac styleeee. :P
  23. #23
    Greedo017's Avatar
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    i bet out here every time, maybe 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot. I disagree with a few of your assumptions. Mainly, that you'd only get 1-2 callers. at least 2 every time, probably averaging more like 3. using 2 as an average, say there's a 10 dollar pot, you bet 6, two callers, that's 6 dollars into a 22 dollar pot. And, i'd say if you do get only 1-2 callers, on the turn depending on what comes i'd say you could make up for the bad odds in # of times they checked to you again and you bet and they fold, and # of times a non-flush scare card hits and they check to you and you check and get a free river to hit the flush.
    i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch

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