seeming reg reppin' thin

villain is from the UK. 8/0/0 over our 10 hand sample. he is 9-tabling and auto-topping up. that's all i have on him. comments on any street welcome.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($26.49)
BB ($24.65)
UTG ($21.56)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
1 fold, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.40, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.25) A, 4, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB raises to $2.25, Hero calls $1.80

Turn: ($5.75) A (2 players)
SB bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75

River: ($13.25) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $19.99 (All-In), Hero starts counting hand combinations

i don't see why hero is counting hand combos against a 8/0/0 over 10 hands.

hero should be looking at timing tells, avatar, rushing to check his ptr etc.

also villian is hardly 'repping thin'

Originally Posted by bikes

i don't see why hero is counting hand combos against a 8/0/0 over 10 hands.

to determine how often i think i will win the pot and compare it to my pot odds. that's the only way i know how to deal with these situations.

Originally Posted by bikes

hero should be looking at timing tells, avatar, rushing to check his ptr etc.

i don't use ptr because i thought it was against the site's T's+C's. good point on timing tells, they often slip my mind. pretty sure this river shove was basically instant. from memory the dude's avatar was a fanned out royal flush, but i have no idea how to get poker information from people's avatars.

i would love to hear your hand combo count for this particular spot against the 8/0/0 over 10 who's 9 tabling.

i also can't imagine why you're considering calling against a 25nl reg with no history or reads.

he can easily have 44 55 as well as A5s and A4s and if he was bluffing with 67 that got there on the river and it's completely feasible for him to jam it.

you beat K high Q high and J high, possibly T high. it's also impossible to know if he's even bluffing these hands because #1 a very rare few people will do it and barrel it off after c/ring and getting called. #2 you have no reads to know if he's capable of even bluffing the flop with those hands.

pairs also have a lot of show down value on this board as everyone bluffs this board btn vs sb so he can happily c/c 1 and c/f two and feel great about it. that makes it even more unlikely he's bluffing here.

it's also absurdly unlikely he overbet jams as a bluff because the A has paired the turn and no one folds trips good kicker at these stakes.

pretty easily fold and mostly forget about it until a few days later. Definitely don't replay the hand or think about it too much during your session except as context in future hands against this player.

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you sort of have to look at this hand against a background that A2 is a clear fold here...

what do 25nl 6-max regs tend to do vs steals with low pairs/Ax hands? without data beyond 8-0 over 10 you kinda have to go with default villain portraits, i.e. generic nit, generic tag, generic wannabe lag, generic loose-passive fish, etc. This guy is shaping to be generic nit, that's a very early read, but it's all you have.

counting hand combos etc is difficult because it's too small a sample to derive the important things (0% 3b is irrelevant over 8 hands, so you can't start saying things like take out AK cos no 3b etc), you can basically just use that info to assume he's at the nit-passive end of reg-dom for your games.

I have avatars disabled, so i can't help on that front. Where he is from is something i take into consideration, but it's rarely the tipping point in a decision. re ptr - even if you would ptr cheat in this spot, isn't ptr no longer displaying stars info since stars threatened legal action?

villain's line is really strong. He shouldn't expect you to fold A9 so this screams max-value from a hand that beats A9.
i mean, you could stove something like
44/55/A4-AKs (with A9/AT/AJ discounted) i guess. And that's probably optimistic. Note there is only one A5s combo, and no A4s possible.

note: by repping thin i guess you mean repping a narrow range of nut hands, not repping a thin value hand like QQ?

edit: great post above by bikes too
i hope even he laughs at this bit though

Originally Posted by bikes

he can easily A4s

Originally Posted by bikes

it's also absurdly unlikely he overbet jams as a bluff because the A has paired the turn and no one folds trips good kicker at these stakes.

i did. but i then went and made a thread on a poker forum about it.

ps thanks for elaborating on why to fold as you did above. it's appreciated.

as regards counting combos, i just counted how many combos of FH's were possible, and then tried to decide how likely he is to have them in his range/how often (if ever) he shows up with AT-AQ (i doubt 76 overbet jams once the board has paired as i still have all of the FH's in my range on this board). is this the wrong approach?

Originally Posted by daven

note: by repping thin i guess you mean repping a narrow range of nut hands, not repping a thin value hand like QQ?

correct. probably not the right phrase though. i'm not sure what frequency i could expect regular-looking players to be flatting pairs <66 or low suited aces from the blinds versus my min-raises, but i felt like some of those hands should be discounted to some degree. i personally don't have a single full house in my range if i'm villain here. but i understand that doesn't at all mean that he doesn't have one.

Seems pretty clear fold to me given you have lots of Ax and villain can't seriously expect to fold that out a high enough % to bluff this spot, not unless he has notes that you're capable of hero folding AK here, and seeing as you have 10 hands or w/e on him, I don't see how he has that info on you. Personally I think I just muck to the flop c/r given his sizing. He doesn't seem to fear AK.

dont matter so much how narrow a range someone reps IF THEY AINT EVER BLUFFING THEY AINT EVER BLUFFING AND THATS THAT

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

dont matter so much how narrow a range someone reps IF THEY AINT EVER BLUFFING THEY AINT EVER BLUFFING AND THATS THAT

this is what i woulda typed tbh

Yeah this is a fold my man. He deffffff can have you crushed.

thanks guys. i did fold. but that's a spot where i'd have probably sigh-called 6-8 months ago and instantly told myself it was a cooler every time i'm shown the goods

then you sir, have improved.

Once he bets this turn we can pretty happily fold.

edit: Basically nobody at 25NL is c/r AQ- for value and nobody is c/r bluffing almost EVER(You shouldn't rly) especially on this board and once they bet the turn they are either batshit insane(Unlikely to be 8/0 over 10 if they are) or they just have a boat.

River obviously isn't close at all. You probably win 1/1000 times or something if that much...