So, this came up on IRC, but I had to have a tabula rasa to do the math. TylerK was playing a 10 NL ring game, going all-in PF with AA/KK/QQ/AKs, and folding everything else. Also playing the blinds.

The question is, how profitable is this? How many callers do you need?

First simplistic model - AA only.
You get AA 0.2% of the time, or 1 in 440

If everyone folds, you win 0.15 (blinds) plus ~.20 from limpers or raisers
If you get a caller, you are going to be a 4:1 fav - assuming stack of ~$6, you should win $4.80 on average.

Assume that you are -.10 on blind structure of .05/.10., so 440 hands costs you $4.40, so if you get calls 100% of the time, you will make about $0.001/hand, or if you prefer 0.40 (>3xBlinds) per AA.

It's actually disasterous, because you are only going to get called 25% of the time and be losing $4!

If you losen up and play KK/QQ/JJ AKs the same way, then you are playing 1 in 100 hands, so at the same payoff (4:1), you are winning $3.00 per all in. So if you are called every time, you make .03/hand (woo hoo).

Except... you don't get called 100% of the time, 5% of the time you are looking at worse odds.

So 5% you are losing $10, and 95-X% you are down about $1.15 (10xblinds + 1xblinds + 2 limpers), X% you win $3.00.


So... 3.0X = .05(10) + (0.95-X)(1.15)
3X = .50 + 1.09 - 1.15X
1.85X = 1.59

X = 86% of the time, not gonna happen.

Best to play like Rippy...