rivered set on soaking wet board facing raise from unknown

[surviva316]

villain is like 20/15 over 15 hands but is a complete unknown. like all of his post flop stats say N/A. this is a spot where i was pretty lost on ranges. i know that i only need to be good like 25% of the time, but i feel like villain has to be an idiot for him to be doing this with anything that i beat other than a bluff.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($9.14)
UTG ($8.40)
Hero (MP) ($26.55)
CO ($10)
Button ($5.29)
SB ($2.04)

Preflop: Hero is MP with ,
1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.35) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($2.35) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CO raises to $4.50


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.644% 18.64% 00.00% 11 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 81.356% 81.36% 00.00% 48 0.00 { 88-77, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, T9s, 87s, 76s }

i only put in one of the 4 possible sets to weight it. if i only add one of the possible overpairs, then the call becomes profitable. i guess this is kinda just a question about weighting ranges

[birdman417]

(Mr duvall would have known exactly what to do and pwned this....lol...just saw your location)

If it were me, and I am seriously not close to good (yet)..I think I would put him on something like A7 or K7....
unless he is a trappy bastard, i see him waiting for the overcard to show and "magic stone!" catches a straight

[Micro2Macro]

why you bettin' rivar

[Carroters]

why you bettin' rivar

Cos it's likely villain is bad enough to calls with 10s and two pairs and worse sets. It also ensures we never get bwuffed here. c/f just seems to weak, and c/c is horrible since we let him check worse behind and get towned by anything better.

I like this rivar bet.

[Micro2Macro]

I don't think sets are really in this guys range..like I think we would have heard about it earlier in the hand.

If we bet river there's no way we're calling a raise.

[Carroters]

If we bet river there's no way we're calling a raise.

Agreed, easiest fold in the world ever.

good, now fold river
he probably calls with sets/two pairs/overpairs on the river
when he raises you're toast