Rivered flush on a two pair board

[AlphaKennyBody]

Villain is 43/8 over a pretty small sample (like 80 hands). How often is this an ace or something like 77?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($19.55)
Hero ($9.10)
SB ($7.60)
BB ($10)
UTG ($7.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 9.
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.4, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold.

Flop: ($0.90) J, J, 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.8, SB calls $0.80.

Turn: ($2.50) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($2.50) T (2 players)
SB bets $2.5, Hero

[ecrujet]

Your $2.50 will net you $5.00 I would call, at 43 he could be playing anything.
But he probably had a J

[Hawk]

Your $2.50 will net you $5.00 I would call, at 43 he could be playing anything.

Yes, he could have anything...including a 3.
If the situation was reversed and the villain had checked behind on the (
edit: this said river, but I meant turn), I might be more likely to call, but he could easily have a 3 and not bet it afraid he was still behind a J. When Hero checks behind, villain figures his 3 is good and pots it.

But, then again maybe he's an idiot betting a ten.

Depending on my read of the villian, I might bet again on turn. If he had a J he likely would have raised the flop bet. When another 3 comes on the turn it would be hard to call another bet without a J.

[Chopper]

i am going to try and do this differently than usual. normally, i would tell you, "i dont call this w/o a read. double paired boards are dangerous. i dont think you beat anything but an A or weaker flush...weaker flushes dont likely pot the river here, but stronger ones do.) his pot sized bet means, you need to be 33% confident you are ahead to call."

but, why do i say that? and, i could be really, really wrong. so, lets try the math approach here, since its something i am working on.

33% comes from the $2.50 into a $2.50 pot. that makes the pot $5, when it comes to you. you need to call $2.50 to win $7.50...or 33%. we need to put villain on a range here, and see if we have more than 33% equity in the pot...based on our read.

43% pre flop doesnt mean much to me, other than he didnt RR us. he could have a lot of crap. pokerstove says 43% is...

22+,AX+,K9+,Q8+,J7+,T7+,57s+,45s+...ish. we'll narrow this down by watching what villain does.

flop Jh Jc 3c. and we fire a pot sized bet...almost. i like your cbet size, btw. but, villain calls. this is where notes come in super handy. does he chase psb's w/ draws? does he only call w/ pairs? does he slowplay? all that, but since we dont have it, we'll assume he is the typical "i love flushes" donkey. what would he call with?...33 and maybe 77-JJ (QQ+ would likely RR us pre flop, and certainly would here so thats out), As2s+,Ks9s+,Qs8s+,Js7s+,9s7s+,4s5s+, and some misc overcards like AK, AQ, KQ, maybe.

turn is no help to us, 3h. no help because we check and get no information. i dont 2 barrel here, but we dont get any info from him other than he is still likely on a draw, but he isnt throwing away AK here, if he didnt already, either. range stays the same.

river Tc. and he fires POT. he clearly likes what he has. did he hit a flush? is it better than us? did he try for a c/r on turn and fail with a boat? its getting scary because our flush isnt great when any J and any 3 has us dead. what would fire big, other than a bluff?...we can bet that 77-TT dont, the overcards dont. that leaves us with a range of flushes, boats, and quads. or, 33,JJ,As2s+,Ks9s+,Qs8s+,Js7s+, Ts7s+,9s7s+, 4s5s+. now, we need to run this through pokerstove and make an adjustment for a bluff, too, and see where we come out.

take out all the parts of villains range with the 8s or 9s in them, and we are a 75/25 dog against this range. add in 10% chance he is bluffing and we only get to 35% equity. since we need 33%, we cant call this.

had villain only bet $1.00 into $2.50, we would be calling $1 to win $3.50, or 28%. this would still be very marginal because we are relying on the "bluff tendencies" of an unknown player to justify calling his bet.

i think we can see this is a pretty clear fold. oh, and i realized i was calling the clubs spades. small error.


please correct me if i am wrong. i am trying to work in pokerstove in situations like these to see if my instincts are wrong based on math.

[Pythonic]

Definitely folding the river here. His river bet is way too big!

[AlphaKennyBody]

lol folds all across, glad I folded.

On a side note...roughly how many hands do we need on our opponent to start strongly considering stats in our play against him?

[Hawk]

Different stats need different amounts of hands because some situations are more rare. You can get a rough idea of VPIP$ and PFR$ pretty quickly, for example, but you'd need more hands to get anything close on something like folds to cbet%