River spot

Ok so an interesting little river spot. Villain is 18/14, not an aggressive player without a strong hand generally, goes to showdown 77% once he's seen the river and W$SD 42%.

On the river, it's a wierd spot. Can't let him check behind with a worse king, but I'm not sure he'll try again if he was stone cold bluffing the turn, and if he raised the turn thinking his JJ or similar was good then I don't expect him to think so now.

Generally, I guess checking could be better with a more aggressive opponent, but against this guy I think I've got to maximise against a worse king that can't find a fold.

There's also a remote possibility I suppose, since he's pretty nitty, that I pushed him off a chop, but I doubt it.

Any thoughts?



SB (€19.33)
BB (€26.05)
Hero (UTG) (€26.21)
MP (€40.57)
CO (€28.45)
Button (€26.99)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, Q
Hero bets €0.75, MP calls €0.75, 1 fold, Button calls €0.75, 2 folds

Flop: (€2.60) 2, 3, K (3 players)
Hero bets €1.50, MP calls €1.50, 1 fold

Turn: (€5.60) K (2 players)
Hero bets €3.50, MP raises to €8, Hero calls €4.50

River: (€21.60) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets €15.96 (All-In)

Raise the turn if you are not going to let him bluff the river.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Raise the turn if you are not going to let him bluff the river.

Thanks, I guess I was too worried that a weaker king would check behind and not confident he'd bet again, but I guess if I flat his turn raise and check the river it can look like a mid PP trying to get to showdown or a weak king that can't take much action.

If you raised the turn, how big would you make it - small to keep him along and make the river too tough for him to fold, or try and get it in on the turn?

I'd just go small with my entire range because it's so hard for either player to have a real hand.

I wanna c/f this river.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I wanna c/f this river.

calling the turn is a mistake then

Originally Posted by bikes

calling the turn is a mistake then

Indeed.

won @ sd when raised turn is important here but i'm not folding ott or otr

I don't see what we beat. He's 18/14, he's not cold calling KJ to an utg raise. There's a king on the flop and AK is a huge part of our range, but he's not folding. We're crushed, like always.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I don't see what we beat. He's 18/14, he's not cold calling KJ to an utg raise. There's a king on the flop and AK is a huge part of our range, but he's not folding. We're crushed, like always.

This is why I said, even though it seems very unlikely, that perhaps I pushed him off a chop.

It's a wierd hand, I'd love to be able to figure out what he did have, I guess he _might_ flat with KJs then raise the turn and shut down when called.

Although it seems so unlikely, I guess pushing him off a chop is like about the only thing that seems to make sense.

Well your kicker is playing, so the only hand you chop with is KQ, which is very unlikely. Pushing him off a chop makes no sense, since he rarely has KQ and even when he does we don't know if he folds it. I'm only thinking about if he can take this line as a bluff, and since we raise utg and there's two kings on the board, it doesn't look like a smart bluffing spot to me. If he's bluffing, he's trying to push you off a king, so unless you're showing the table big folds, I don't see why he'd try this. He has something that beats AK imo, because he doesn't seem scared of it, in fact it looks like he hopes you have AK.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

it doesn't look like a smart bluffing spot to me.

It isn't, but that won't stop bad regs. Villain is repping such a thin range, and it's bizarre that he'd decide to stop calling with a monster on this turn so I think we have to give him some bad spazz bluffs as we have no reason to think he's good enough to not spazz bluff here occasionally.

Hero played this well until the river trainwreck shove imo.

Originally Posted by d0zer

It isn't, but that won't stop bad regs. Villain is repping such a thin range, and it's bizarre that he'd decide to stop calling with a monster on this turn so I think we have to give him some bad spazz bluffs as we have no reason to think he's good enough to not spazz bluff here occasionally.

Hero played this well until the river trainwreck shove imo.

Agreed. He reps only {K2, K3, 22, 33} and I think we can discount them all.

Spaz bluff is about all I can give him.

I get it now too about the river - my idea that I didn't want to let him check behind a worse king that he'd call with was bad - he doesn't have any worse kings, so I should have given him an opportunity to bluff.

no one is checking a king mate

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Agreed. He reps only {K2, K3, 22, 33} and I think we can discount them all.

I don't think we can discount 22 and 33 when an 18/14 cold calls an utg open.