River sizing?

Villain is 66/33 over 6 hands and hasn't been to show down so not much to go on.

Simple question........river sizing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($3.55)
SB ($13.87)
BB ($17.49)
UTG ($16.36)
Hero (UTG+1) ($12.25)
MP1 ($9.40)
MP2 ($3.90)
MP3 ($4.05)
CO ($10.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40, 6 folds

Flop: ($0.95) Q, 7, K (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.45) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80, MP1 calls $1.80

River: ($6.05) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets??

Shove it, no reason to mess about.

Since he has fishy stats, maybe bet closer to pot on previous streets.

His stats mean squadouche in all reality. I think his range is Kx,busted FD,MAYBE a 7 if he called with a s.c. type hand, he only has about a pot size bet left in his stack, I would go for around 3-3.50 and pray he calls. He's almost never calling a jam, unless he has exactly a 7, or some weak shit like K7s or something stupid. Take it to value town and pray he looks you up. Just my deuce.

Originally Posted by acg123

His stats mean squadouche in all reality

Not at all. The odds of someone playing 4/6 hands being a splashy fish is much higher than them being a reg, especially if hero's been playing these limits for a while and has a decent sample on the regs.

I'd go on that assumption and do what david said.

Originally Posted by acg123

His stats mean squadouche in all reality. I think his range is Kx,busted FD,MAYBE a 7 if he called with a s.c. type hand, he only has about a pot size bet left in his stack, I would go for around 3-3.50 and pray he calls. He's almost never calling a jam, unless he has exactly a 7, or some weak shit like K7s or something stupid. Take it to value town and pray he looks you up. Just my deuce.

As d0zer already said, that is not true and there is a higher likelihood of him being a fish than a tight reg. The key word here is likelihood.

I you are interested in a mathematical proof, see here:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...th-175213.html

Shove, the range he'll call a smaller bet with will also call a shove like 95% of the time; he has Kx, 7x or JT way more often than a FD or AT/AJ type hands.

$2.10 on turn, you made a big mistake there
pot or 3-button-theory on river

Thanks for the replies.

@daven - I agree that my big mistake was too small on the turn. Didn't want to scare him away but really if he was calling 1.8 he would have likely called 2-2.10ish and that would have set up a better bet sizing opportunity on the river.

Originally Posted by PKKFW

Thanks for the replies.

@daven - I agree that my big mistake was too small on the turn. Didn't want to scare him away but really if he was calling 1.8 he would have likely called 2-2.10ish and that would have set up a better better sizing opportunity on the river.

Exactly. I said not to jam cuz it would be a slight overbet to his stack size. Had you bet more on the turn then jamming the river wouldn't look so bad, and it would keep him from thinking " hey I might be beat here" and mucking a hand that should of paid you off. Hence the "value bet of 1/2 his stack on river" I previously posted.

bet more on turn; as played it doesn't really matter that it's a slight overbet, shoving is still way better than 1/2 psb

for someone who loves poker, goddamn i hate maths!

For the record I bet the river $4.50 and villain folded. I can only figure he's probably a d donkey drawing with a FD or maybe AJ.

Pot pot shove against an unknown fishy looking guy.

You need plan your bet sizing for future streets.

I just shove here.