40/0/1.0 over about 40 hands. No reads other than stats. Comments on any streets welcome (how's the sizing?). Analysis to follow hand

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed)

MP ($19)
Hero (Button) ($25.35)
SB ($33.50)
BB ($18.15)
UTG ($27.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, 10
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.25, 2 folds, MP calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) 2, 5, J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.75, MP calls $1.75

Turn: ($6.35) 7 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3.75, MP calls $3.75

River: ($13.85) Q (2 players)
MP bets $6, Hero ???

So I posted a few hands a few days ago and spoon got on my case about putting people on ranges. Here's an attempt at that, so I better get a reply from him at least In this hand the fish limp calls PF but this doesn't give us any way to narrow his range since he plays his entire range like this lol. I won't even try to make a PF hand range for him since its so wide.

Flop is pretty effin great for our hand when heads up vs a fish. I bet out for value because I expect him to peel with tons of garbage at this point. I estimate his range for continuing is:

Flop continuing range
PP's: 55+,
Random broadways: ATs+, KTs+, QTs+,
Worse J's: J7s+, J9o+
Gutshots: A5s-A3s, 65s, 54s, 43s,
Better J's: AJo+, KJo+, QJo

He calls the flop and I'm fist pumping pretty hard at this point. Bet the turn again for value because tons of worse hands call. I took out sets and overpairs since I don't think he's going to only c/c again on the turn with those. I also have him only continuing with overcards/gutshots that also picked up a FD.

Turn c/c range:
PP's: TT-88, 66,
Random broadways: AK, AsQs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs,
Gutshots: As5s, As4s, As3s, 65s, 54s, 43s,
Worse J's: J7s+, J9o+
Better J's: AJs, KJs+,QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo,


On the river the offsuit Q comes and he decides to donk for about half pot. To me this looks like a last ditch attempt to get some value from a made but not extremely strong hand, or a last ditch bluff attempt. Here are some ranges for his river lead:

{AKs, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As5s, As4s, As3s, KJs+, KsTs, QJs, QsTs, AKo, AJo, KJo, QJo}
This range assumes he bluffs all his AK hands (maybe because he's mad it they didn't get there) and he bluffs all his draws (gutshots and FD's) that missed. This probably isn't accurate but its useful because it's pretty much the best case scenario (since it includes his widest possible bluffing range) and it gives us the bottom line amount of equity we need. If we don't have the right odds for even this call then continuing to think about the hand is useless. 46% equity, which is more than enough.

{AsKs, AQs-AJs, As5s, As4s, As3s, KJs+, QJs, AJo, KJo, QJo}
This is a worst case scenario where he's only bluffing the 4 bold hands and the rest he's betting for value. we still have about 36% equity and we only need about 23% equity.

So final conclusion is that this looks like a clear call on the river assuming the analysis above is correct (and that's a big assumption).

Any feedback is great, but I'm specifically looking for what people think about the ranges I created and whether or not they are accurate.