River Decision

Originally Posted by bikes

lol @ this being a call

LOL @ 10nl fr reg turning JJ TT into a bluff.

river c/f here for sure

100% agree

Only question - what does he get to the river with that plays the way he did - mostly on the turn - (i appreciate that its lol 10nl and the standard TAGG is a donk) but the shove surely indicates a straight, so hes called me down with a midpair - is that more likely than turning a semi strong PP (JJ/TT) and turing it into a bluff?

By that thought id argue that if villain is 'bad' enough to have a straight here, surely hes also bad enough to try and bluff this, for the wrong reasons so JJ/TT(KQ?) are just as likely.

Originally Posted by JustinSKS

Hero bets 4.89 on turn/call river. a9s/a9o/j9s/Q9s/K9s/T9s/89s/99 are the only 9's that I think might be in his calling range. But a flop call doesn't say much; when he peels the turn I think the only nines he has left in his range are Ad9d/Qd9d/99 He can have many worse Q's here and would certainly feel like they are good when you checked river. I call I think he thinks he's value shoving with a worse queen. I just don't see many nines hitting the river except Q9dd/Ad9d/99; but I can see QT+ stacking off here; TT; JJ; and maybe one naked Ad4d; but again these hands I don't feel make it past flop; mainly the QT+ TT/JJ/99/Q9dd like shoving here...I think you have enough equity to make the call. I might be wrong. I'll stove it.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

216 games 0.031 secs 6,967 games/sec

Board: 7s 5d Qh 8d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 144 0.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 72 0.00 { JJ-99, Q9s+ }



I think it's a call.

100% my thinking hence why i posted this - even with it being 10nl