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Fnord's last example ... why is it a better example?
What draw are you worried about your opponent being on when the board is showing 2s, 5s, 6h when you're holding the pockets 8s? Obviously, there's the flush draw risk for spades and associated reverse implied odds for you if your opponent hits. Its also obvious to me that when it comes down to it, you cannot improve with your pocket 8s relative to a possible flush.
I see a similar situation in the As example given. The player holding the flush draw has implied odds over his/her opponent. The player that is not on the diamond flush draw is suffering from reverse implied odds, just like our friend with the pocket 8s.
Now, in order to compare apples to apples we also have to assume that the pot odds in both examples are the same. We're talking about a 4-to-a-flush draw against pocket pairs in both examples, so I would therefore have to conclude that the reverse implied odds are the same across both examples (assuming the opponents' future betting behaviour in both examples is the same. This is the key assumption needed to make this statement).
Now if you introduce the assumption that the player with the pocket As will be less likely to 'let go' than our friend with the 8s (thus violating the above assumption re: equal future betting behaviour), then if anything, isn't the As example an example with greater implied odds? Not necessarily a better example, just one with GREATER implied odds with the set-up assumptions made.
Fnord? Why is the pocket 8s scenario a better illustration of reverse implied odds than the pocket As?? Am I missing something?
Probably .... !
Thanks.
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