Rethinking Odds.

I didn't read this fully but it seems the problem with your conclusions is the failure to assume that not all players in a 9-seated game make it to postflop play. Obviously, not all outs are always clean, but the modification of pot odd calculations based on whether or not our outs are clean is very situation-dependent - we can't just arbitrarily decide how often we may count our outs as such and apply a hard and fast rule to all postflop situations.

Also, it's very important to treat all hidden cards as unknowns, and not include the likelihood of our opponent's folded preflop holdings as part of our postflop pot odd calculations.

Originally Posted by Penneywize

I didn't read this fully but it seems the problem with your conclusions is the failure to assume that not all players in a 9-seated game make it to postflop play. Obviously, not all outs are always clean, but the modification of pot odd calculations based on whether or not our outs are clean is very situation-dependent - we can't just arbitrarily decide how often we may count our outs as such and apply a hard and fast rule to all postflop situations.

The point of this isnt to only consider opponents who are involved in post flop play though. What i mean is, if i hold 3d7d preflop and I fold, I'm going to be very angry at my poker site if the flop comes 3d7d5c.

Theres inevitably going to be a decent probability that some of your outs were taken by opponents who folded preflop; thats the entire point of this.

Since youre in a vacuum with regards to opps holdings who folded preflop, why shouldnt it make sense to go with the most probable situation?

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Also, it's very important to treat all hidden cards as unknowns, and not include the likelihood of our opponent's folded preflop holdings as part of our postflop pot odd calculations.

Why?

I would say do a search on this forum, or possibly a google search, this has been discussed before. No offense intended at all sir, but I don't care to argue about this.