Rethinking Odds.

poop.

Just... no.

Originally Posted by bikes

Just... no.

can i ask why?

I didn't read this fully but it seems the problem with your conclusions is the failure to assume that not all players in a 9-seated game make it to postflop play. Obviously, not all outs are always clean, but the modification of pot odd calculations based on whether or not our outs are clean is very situation-dependent - we can't just arbitrarily decide how often we may count our outs as such and apply a hard and fast rule to all postflop situations.

Also, it's very important to treat all hidden cards as unknowns, and not include the likelihood of our opponent's folded preflop holdings as part of our postflop pot odd calculations.

Originally Posted by Penneywize

I didn't read this fully but it seems the problem with your conclusions is the failure to assume that not all players in a 9-seated game make it to postflop play. Obviously, not all outs are always clean, but the modification of pot odd calculations based on whether or not our outs are clean is very situation-dependent - we can't just arbitrarily decide how often we may count our outs as such and apply a hard and fast rule to all postflop situations.

The point of this isnt to only consider opponents who are involved in post flop play though. What i mean is, if i hold 3d7d preflop and I fold, I'm going to be very angry at my poker site if the flop comes 3d7d5c.

Theres inevitably going to be a decent probability that some of your outs were taken by opponents who folded preflop; thats the entire point of this.

Since youre in a vacuum with regards to opps holdings who folded preflop, why shouldnt it make sense to go with the most probable situation?

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Also, it's very important to treat all hidden cards as unknowns, and not include the likelihood of our opponent's folded preflop holdings as part of our postflop pot odd calculations.

Why?

I would say do a search on this forum, or possibly a google search, this has been discussed before. No offense intended at all sir, but I don't care to argue about this.

Alright, I guess I'll do more homework

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-180538.html

Here's a thread that should shed some light on this topic. I'd say read the whole thread, but def read the bit about shrodinger's cat for a decent analogy.

ok, so after reading that thread, and talking about the mathematical basis of it with my brother for a bit, the way i now understand the problem is as such:

the odds of getting a flush draw on the flop, for example, with a given number of other players, represents the same sort of situation as if you merely took some number N cards off the top of the deck, and began dealing from there, where N represents the number of cards held by other players. In this scenario, it becomes obvious that starting dealing from different positions in the deck will have no impact on the actual odds of whatever draw youre working with.


thanks for shedding light on this, I now understand why what I thought previously was wrong. That is, assuming I have it right now, and Im not just donking again xD

"if i hold 3d7d preflop and I fold, I'm going to be very angry at my poker site if the flop comes 3d7d5c."

It won't happen. I promise.

but if it did, who wouldn't be angry?

I'm always mad when flop comes A72 and two fish stack off with AK and AQ, and I folded 27.

Originally Posted by Nekrogovner

I'm always mad when flop comes A72 and two fish stack off with AK and AQ, and I folded 27.

that's cuz yer a fish

it's a bummer to delete OP just because it was wrong. there could well be people in the future with similar thought processes as you who search and could learn from your corrected mistakes just as well (or better) as they could learn from a correct strategy post

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

it's a bummer to delete OP just because it was wrong. there could well be people in the future with similar thought processes as you who search and could learn from your corrected mistakes just as well (or better) as they could learn from a correct strategy post

+1. Want to read OP.

ah, it was basically just about the ramifications on odds of excluding outs from any draws based on the probable holdings of opps preflop

Barry Greenstein made a post about something similar a while back on pokerroad.
Shoving mathematics - PokerRoad Forums

+1 on not deleting your posts. Also don't be discouraged going down a new path. Ten years from now we will all see how wrong we were about poker and how much money we could have made if we could go back in time.