|
|
Disclaimer: I write long posts. They may seem to make sense. They don't necessarily.
Villain faces two limpers and decides to over limp.
To over limp he needs to have a hand that is not a mandatory raise. Your reads on UTG and UTG+1 might help here as his reads might be of a similar nature.
With two limpers already in the hand and him limping it seems obvious that he could be holding a hand with multi-way potential, but which for whatever reason he does not think it is more profitable to raise.
The classic hands for villains over limp is Axs and 22-55. If UTG and UTG+1 were shorter stacked I would put more pairs in his range at this point (as the implied odds part of a preflop raised pot would not be there). That said, if he's a solid player there is no reason to think that his limping range stops there. Kxs and Qxs can be in there as can a wealth of suited connectors including low ones - and maybe even the poor man's broadway cards (QJ/JT/QT/KT/KJ). There is certainly value for him in over limping these hands and he might be smart enough to figure out that while there is also value in raising them there might be more value in over limping. It's cheaper when he doesn't hit and the implied odds are greater when he does hit a strong draw or two pair+.
When you raise, if the villain sees you as solid he may think you are likely making a mistake. If he over limps a wide range he may see your insistence on raising as a potential error. If he is convinced that over limping is more profitable with decent hands you should by raising have a polarised range with premium hands and (not too many) highly speculative hands. He may judge that you raise way too many hands here that are only decent in an attempt to pick up the dead money and that your hand range is weak and many flops will miss you. He may call here with decent hands of his own to outplay you on the flop. Your c-bet is a given so c/r flop or c/c flop lead turn or c/c flop c/r turn may be profitable for him occasionally with air on certain boards. Additionally you and he are both 122bb deep so although your raise size is higher to modify for limpers he may still think he has odds to call any pocket pair and hope to flop a set.
Your perceived range in this situation is likely to be a standard opening range for your position, as I do not think the villain will expect you to adjust for limpers (since as you admitted you have been very aggressive preflop). This would imo include Axs, Kxs, Qxs, all pairs, all broadways and some suited connectors and one gappers. I think your range here should actually be more similar to an UTG range without 22-55 weak broadways and weak suited aces, kings and queens and strong suited connectors - as they should be over limped - and then adding into your raising range even more speculative offsuit connectors and suited two-gappers. A smallish amount so as not to unbalance the fewer premium hands in your range.
When villain calls he expects your range to be wide and weak. He knows he will be OOP. I'm guessing he's calling here with 22-55, poor man's broadways (JT/QT/KT/QJ/KJ) and some of his suited aces, kings or queens. Not sure how he will decide which. He might do just suited aces but no suited kings or queens, or he might do suited aces, king or queens where his kicker is 9+.
The flop is wet enough that you should not be c-betting if you have completely missed it, but I would not expect villain to necessarily give you credit for knowing that. He is likely to think that you will overplay your weak range for a c-bet most of the time if he checks. At the same time the poor man's broadways are hitting the flop hard and the suited A/K/Q/9 with hearts are also feeling good. I think opponent thinks at least Qx or Tx is in his perceived range and if he leads out you are likely to fold your completely missed hands. For this reason I think he'll turn his 22-55 and suited spade holdings (back door flush draw) into bluffs and lead with them along with weaker pairs (QJ/JT) quite often. He may also include KJ in his leading range to price out the flush draw. QT may also want to price out flush draws. KT at least probably checks with the intention of calling along with his suited hearts. Some of the other broadways may also occasionally check/call. Maybe some (weaker?) suited hearts are check/raising here.
If you do decide to c-bet on the flop this bet your bet size is correct. There are so many draws possible that you need to make sure your bet size does not give them a good price to draw. You are certainly here representing AA/KK/QQ/TT/99/AQ/KQ/QT/T9 and the semi-bluff hands in your range include AhKh, AhJh, KhJh and some lower flush draws. I would not be surprised to see JJ, QJ and JT hands betting here, but I'm not convinced that is actually best. They might be better served checking behind. It's a not a strong preference because the wet flop does recommend pricing out draws, but they are hands that if called don't feel particularly good.
When the opponent simply calls as I suggested earlier I expect to see some KT, maybe some other broadways with equity and some heart draws.
Turn completes no draws and in some ways does not change the situation. The turn is not a particularly good bluffing card I don't think. If you bet the turn it should be mostly for value. Villain decides to check/raise here. Or maybe he decides to check and then seeing your bet he thinks you're full of it and decides to raise you off what he may think is likely a bluff or semi-bluff.
Your bet size I guess is fine, but the bet size of the villain is an open invitation to call. He wants you to be putting more money in. When villain check/raises this amount I think he is most likely to hold KJ/QT as his nut range and still have some heart draws (especially Jhxh/9xhx and to a lesser degree Khxh and Ahxh for the nut flush draw) in there for his semi-bluff range. He knows how strong he looks and he thinks your range here is still probably too wide and weak and a lot of it will fold - or will not be able to continue against a mix of hands that either have you crushed or have good equity against you. I think villain thinks you will fold here often and when you call or shove he is still clearly +EV.
In fact unless you have a value range for your turn bet as narrow as AQ/KK/AA/QT/KJ (KT and AT if they got bet on the flop and T9 if it was raised preflop) I think you may have made a mistake at some point in the hand.
With AQ, KK or AA here I hate life. I might even fold. QT, KJ (and KT, AT and T9) happily stack off imo.
|
Reg takes weird line oop, €20nl
Reply With Quote
