Red numbers - How do I continue to improve my game?

For the last couple of weeks my poker curve has turned down hill and today when I summed up my hands in Poker Tracker, I found a red number telling me I'm now 13$ down for the last 8000 hands. I play 0.25/0.5$ NL 10 players, usually two tables at a time. My bank roll is now about 1100$ and my max has been about 1450$.

It seems like suddenly I can't take home the small but steady profit I was doing earlier. I feel like loosing more strong hands than before and at some tables it seems like the table is cursed or something. Like today when I lost with AA twice, KK once and QQ three times () in a short while. Also AK and AQ hitting top pair on flop was busted by sets three times. Myself I got a set only once when I flopped my third ace, but then everyone folded, due to my preflop aggression... All these great hands comming my way and all the time busted Only good thing was the practice I got from folding strong hands, something I really need to learn. I even laid down pocket QQ with no overcards on the flop or turn to an obvious KK/AA. A couple of the sets I didn't see coming though, so my loss was significant.

I have been trying to be more aggressive and maybe this has turned my game negative? I am now at an average of 5% PFR and more aggresion than that just cause me too loose more money, because people call anyway. It doesn't fit my style to be too aggressive. I have in fact reduce my River aggression from about 7-8 to 4-5 and I feel that I am learning all the time, but still I loose more big pots than I take down at the moment.

I have learned that bluffing a flop I didn't hit is really a bad idea 90% of the time and will try to stick to betting when I hold something at least. I handle bad beat at the table well, saying "nh" or nothing, refilling and playing on like before. But I feel like I'm out of luck or something. Shouldn't the margins turn my way when I keep playing ok? Sure, I make plenty of mistakes (just see some of my posted hands on this forum), but at an average I'm still playing all right I would say. PT rates me as semi loose-passive/aggressive (default bomb symbol) and that has been my ranking for all my 18000 hands so far.

I play from 15 to 30% of my starting hands, depending on the table and the cards.

My question:
What do you think is the major flaw in my game? What should I try to improve first?
Is it really necessary to be more aggressive than 5% PFR to play with profit?
Should I maybe change to play tournaments for a while?
Any advice would be welcome.

I have learned that bluffing a flop I didn't hit is really a bad idea 90% of the time and will try to stick to betting when I hold something at least.

Huh?

I always followup preflop bets unless 4 ways or more. If you're getting called too much, you've gotta bet the turn as well. Never betting without a made hand will make you predictable, weak/tight and bad.

Also, if it says you're semi-loose passive, that's should be the first and easiest thing to fix.

-'rilla

hm...How do I "fix" semi loose passive aggressive? What should I be to be good according to PT? By increasing PFR right? Well - I can't really see how I can increase it much without raising alot more with bad starting hands? I allready raise most strong and semi strong hands from position to get my PFR to 5%. My aggresion numbers are something like:

2.5-3.0 flop
2.5-3.0 turn
4.0-4.5 river

total aggression factor including preflop is 0.81. (0.70 rate as passive in PT.)

Sorry for not making this more clear. I represent the flop after a preflop raise of course. I will take many flops down from my preflop aggression when for instance a K comes, even if I hold AQ, by representing. But I sometimes try to bluff on a flop that I didn't hit with connectors for example when I think others didn't hit it as well and this has so far turned out to be a bad idea, loosing more often than winning. It is costly even if I fold to a raise. When it comes to betting the turn, I feel like they will call me all the way too often on the tables I play.

Sounds like one of the next things for you to capitalize on is learning to play position.

You might take a break first to get your head straight...sounds like you're playing a little scared.

Well- I don't think I'm actually playing scared since one of my main problems is to fold strong hands instead of pushing, and I do not count my money at the table. I do not slow play much but keep up the pressure if I think I have the best hand.

But, as you say, my position play can improve a lot I think. I have ordered a couple of books to try to get a better understaning of this part of the game. Takes forever to send it to me it seems.

A few questions again:
I raise 4-6x BB from the button with :Jh::Th: and get two callers. Flop comes :Jc:. I bet the pot to represent a strong hand (correct?) and keep one caller who calls again. Turn is . Should I keep betting the pot What if he keeps calling. I don't like my kicker and could be the weaker hand allready.

I hold QQ and reraise a preflop 1.5$ (BB=0.5$) to 5$, get reraised to 10$ and call. Flop brings J95 rainbow he checks, I bet 10$ (to little?) and he calls. Turn is a 3 and he now bets 20$. What do I do?

Originally Posted by Borax

Well- I don't think I'm actually playing scared since one of my main problems is to fold strong hands instead of pushing, and I do not count my money at the table.

Folding strong hands when you shouldn't is textbook definition for playing scared. Well, at least in the book I've written in my head.

Originally Posted by Borax

A few questions again:
I raise 4-6x BB from the button with :Jh::Th: and get two callers. Flop comes :Jc:. I bet the pot to represent a strong hand (correct?) and keep one caller who calls again. Turn is . Should I keep betting the pot What if he keeps calling. I don't like my kicker and could be the weaker hand already.

I rarely bet the pot, but that's just me...I'm more of a 2/3 to 3/4 pot kinda guy. And yes, you should bet the turn here assuming no reads.

Originally Posted by Borax

I hold QQ and reraise a preflop 1.5$ (BB=0.5$) to 5$, get reraised to 10$ and call. Flop brings J95 rainbow he checks, I bet 10$ (to little?) and he calls. Turn is a 3 and he now bets 20$. What do I do?

Bet more on the flop. Reads could come in to play here (as well as stack sizes), but is he really making these plays with anything that a 3 helps? Your only fear is AA/KK/JJ. Given your weak flop bet, I don't think you have enough info to put him on one of those. So how does this guy play preflop? Would he be in there with many other hands? AK/AQ/AJ? TT? 99 (another to fear if he'd actually play it)? Assuming he's a typical NL$50 player, I'd likely call or push here, but it does depends on stack sizes a bit.

JeffreyGB wrote:
Borax wrote:
Well- I don't think I'm actually playing scared since one of my main problems is to fold strong hands instead of pushing, and I do not count my money at the table.


Folding strong hands when you shouldn't is textbook definition for playing scared. Well, at least in the book I've written in my head.

Even my laguage is wrong today Sorry man - I was trying to say that I push when I should have folded my strong hand because i should know that I was beaten. There, I think I got it right this time. I push when I should slow down or fold. I also raise rivers when I should just call.

The JT hand - when someone calls on that flop it's usually a flush draw, so go with that and bet again. It's not always a flush draw, but you can't sit there and think everyone's slow playing a set every hand or you'll die a weak, tight death.

The other hand - weird play. He's trying to be tricky one way or the other. I think he took your weak flop bet for weakness and is trying to take it from you so I'd push.

As far as your game in general, just keep posting hands you have questions about and paying attention to the responses. Also, try analyzing every hand that's posted in the hh forum. I just started trying to do that and it really has me in a good poker-thinking mode when I sit down at the tables.

I'm playing the exact same stakes right now on stars just grinding for MTTs. Very tight and very aggressive seems to dominate these stakes still.

My VP$IP is 16% at .25/.50, PFR at 8. The best rule of thumb I've had for these stakes is always take control of the hand, if you're playing AKo and throw out a 4x raise and get reraised I'll reraise them again to see where I stand, if he just calls, on the flop I'm in control and he's got "AMERICAN AIRLINES ONO!" passing through his head. If I catch TPTK I'll raise and reraise here again, if I lose control of the hand, or he finally tips his hand by overraising then I get out.

I think your comment on follow up bets is a very bad observation. Follow up bets here are 80% effective for me doing 3/4s of pot with a 4x preflop. It also gets me paid on my real hands (which is way better than a small pot.). I do avoid it more than three handed though unless I have a godlike image going or I see a couple of autochecks.

Also, not sure if you are playing them, but I've been raising with small suited connectors and one gappers (same as AK, 4x) and had great success with them. Players at these stakes are starting to put you on hands and raised small suited connectors are definitely not one of the hands they put you on. Catching two pair, suckers trips or a draw is a completely hidden hand and pays by the truckload. Just make sure you're in position and make a follow up bet like you would with AKo.

I think your first step should be changing to tight-aggressive aggressive. Play 16% of your hands for 2k hands, see if that doesn't help things. I have a feeling that doing this will fix everything up, including PFR% and all that, but try it first.

Thanks guys. Plenty of good advice here and I appreciate it.

I tried a bit yesterday (350 hands) to play more tight-aggressive and ended up playing 18 and 20% of my hands and with a PFR of 8 and 6 in my two tables

One good observation was that I found it more easy to stay +- 5$ off my starting 50$ stack. That is because I stole more blinds. The bad news was that my strong hands payed maximum 8$ since people scared easily out of the hands, which isn't really bad news after all when I think of it....

Then I lost half my stack on both tables with AQ. One that didn't hit on the flop , I couln't shake one caller off and got called all the way, stepping down with a small river bet to see he held QQ. The other hand I will post on the hand history topic for comments, but basically he hit his flush on the river and I probably should have pushed the turn to try to avoid it, since my read correctly told me I was ahead on the turn. Then I made up my loss throught some very nice flops including a flopped quads and one hand where I stayed in for two reraises preflop with 55 and the flop came 5AA giving me the stack of one guy holding KK and pushing I then quit for the night with a small profit, for the first time in a while.

I will keep posting hands and try to take advice given. Thanks again

Aggressive doesn't necessarily mean betting huge amounts to drive people away, or betting when you're beat (two of the mistakes that is sounds like you may have made while implementing this into your play). That said, I'm glad to hear things are improving. Nice job!

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I always followup preflop bets unless 4 ways or more. If you're getting called too much, you've gotta bet the turn as well. Never betting without a made hand will make you predictable...

Isn't "always" the definition of predictable?

Now, I must say I also always follow-up, but are we just inducing check-raises?

If you raise preflop to 4x, get called by BB you have 8.5 BB in pot, you bet 6 on flop, he check raises you, you let the hand go. So you've risked 6bb to pick up 8.

So if you do this scenario 2 times and he folds once you've lost six BB and acquired 8.5, therefore it is +2.5bb to do it half the time. If you have someone playing back at you more than 50% of the time on your raises you've got a gold mine. Most players are going to lay this hand down far more than 50% of the time, therefore its a much larger return than the conservative example given. Hell even if he's playing back at you half the time you still have a gold mine. For most players this is going to be a 10BB per three deal, if not more the tighter the player.

Originally Posted by sejje

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I always followup preflop bets unless 4 ways or more. If you're getting called too much, you've gotta bet the turn as well. Never betting without a made hand will make you predictable...

Isn't "always" the definition of predictable?

Now, I must say I also always follow-up, but are we just inducing check-raises?

It only makes me predictable on the flop, never beyond. And I'd like to have them expecting my bets, makes it easier to get some action.

-'rilla