Reasonable expectations

What are reasonable expectations to hold at 10NL?

10bb/100, which would be $2/100 hands, is that good?

Not sure how many hands per hour, and can't use Poker Tracker at the site I play at, but does 250 hands per hour (per table) sound reasonable?

That would make it, say, $5 per hour per table you play at.

I'd just like to know what is reasonable, so I can know when it is going good. I seem to get frustrated easily, so being able to give myself decent feedback would be nice

10bb/100 is somewhat reasonable. I've heard that people can sustaing 20 or more at 10nl. I run 8bb/100 at 25nl and 50nl, which I am told is good.

250 hand/hr/table is highly unreasonable. Full ring is generally between 50-60 hand/hr/table. 6-max can be over 100, depending.

In the long run, you will probably make no more than $8-10/hr fourtabling 10nl. Which is why you need to move up ASAP

Oh, thx a lot Renton, seems like I was holding seriously unreasonable expectations as to what to earn today, which could explain why I became so frustrated. Dunno where I got the idea but I was expecting something like $10 per hour on one table ATLEAST.

Ok this is a lot more reassuring

Youve only just started playing poker right?

So a reasonable expectation would be to break even and try to really get to grips with the game. Once you get properly comfortable with it theres no reason you cant sustain 15-20BB/100 pretty easily but you probably have alot of leaks to plug first.

I would say first try to break even and then work up from there.

And dont feel like you have to make 10BB/100, because you might find yourself putting yourself in unprofitable situations just to try to make that goal

Ok.. 20bb/hour that's making $4-5 an hour on one table? That isn't that hard. If that means it's going good.. then I'm reassured.

But all in all bad beats have been killing me today.. Three very unfortunate river-drops costing me $20. Lost another $10 on an all-in frenzy.. guess I tilted. But that last bad beat all-in.. $20 pot me AK vs idiot with A6 and he gets his 6 on the river. Argh .. I'm on a tight bankroll so these bad beats are really killing me.

And yeah I'm new. Learned the rules of the game 2 weeks ago, about a week playing online now. So far my biggest achievement is 7th place in a 210 people MTT. Ring games have been kinda hazy though.. but if I can keep the $2-$5 per hour per table guideline in my head, this should keep me calm enough to play my game properly.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Ok.. 20bb/hour that's making $4-5 an hour on one table? That isn't that hard. If that means it's going good.. then I'm reassured.

3-4$

Ah right. So $2-$4 and I'm going good. *etched in my mind*

And I think I'm calling it a day. These bad beats have made me scared to bet even if the odds are in my favor. I hope for better luck tomorrow.. or less bad luck.

Keep in mind though, that you will rarely have days where you make 2-4 bucks per hour per table. Thats just your long term stat. What will happen is you will make like 10 or so bucks/hr/table one day and then make -1/hr/table then next day, and -4/hr/table the day after and then +2/hr/table the day after.

Poker is swingy.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Ok.. 20bb/hour

Is pretty huge. I said about 15-20BB/100 hands. At most tables you are only getting 50-60 hands per hour so half your $$ per hour but remember that this is per table.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by jackvance

Ok.. 20bb/hour

Is pretty huge. I said about 15-20BB/100 hands. At most tables you are only getting 50-60 hands per hour so half your $$ per hour but remember that this is per table.

Yeah that was a typo, meant to say 20bb/100.

Dang, I have been swinging like a monkey!! I usually play 3 tables (sometimes 1 tourney and 2 full ring tables) at 25NL. At 6K hands my BB/100 was around 7, at 10K hands it was 11.8 (had it over 12 for a few hundered hands), and just turning 12K hands it is at 6.8, but up from my low point of 5.7......

I know I play a slightly swingy style, but I guess I wasn't prepared for that downswing over the course of 2K hands. Some of it was bad beats, but other times I know I played badly. Hopefully I am through that rough patch and on my way back up!!!

Basically, if you play tight, your hands will get paid off at $10 and $25 NL. Bad beats are discouraging, but they happen and long term you will be okay. I can tell you it is tough to break away from the table when you feel like nothing can go right, but you absolutely must or you will spiral downward. That was part of my problem during my short downswing. I found it tough to break away. Read the post about not being able to make someone fold. It is enlightening...

Good luck!!!

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

Basically, if you play tight, your hands will get paid off at $10 and $25 NL. Bad beats are discouraging, but they happen and long term you will be okay. I can tell you it is tough to break away from the table when you feel like nothing can go right, but you absolutely must or you will spiral downward. That was part of my problem during my short downswing. I found it tough to break away. Read the post about not being able to make someone fold. It is enlightening...

Good luck!!!

Thx.. just played a bit after my previous post.. 3rd hand all-in KQ vs AJ, got my K. Made up for the $10 loss on the bad beat yesterday hehe. I was the 40% underdog here but whatever

Feels nice after yesterday's horrid luck.. but anyway, I'm keeping logs now to evaluate my winnings and losses so I can see how I do on the longer term instead of going ballistic on variance swings.

Alright, really wanna thank everyone on this forum, it's such a great resource for an aspiring poker player . You guys put things back in perspective for me, so I was able to calm down and refind my game.

And really, making $2-4 on one table in 10NL is drop dead easy. Just played an hour and made $17. (or $27 if I include that all-in show-off I mentionned before, but I don't count that now, it was just pure luck) SO this $17.. nothing too fancy here either. Ok, didn't run into any major bad luck, and no doubt this is positive variance here, but I didn't get really lucky on anything either.

Simply this:
- since everyone calls all the time, when I get a decent hand, even if everyone folds, I take a nice pot which adds up over time.
- and if I have callers, a c-bet often seals the deal.
- you can typically know what these guys have. Since they're all passives, a 40 cent or more raise is usually AA/AK/KK/QQ etc. Or a guy trying a bluff. But if he does so he'll be scared, so you can take him up on it easily
- generally they bet heavy at TP (any kicker).. so as a general rule of thumb, TPTK or better you should go to the showdown without remorse. If they really have something major (look out for possible flush/straight on the board) they'll become aggressive so then it's time to watch out. My biggest win came from having overpair vs a guy with TPLK
- if I get a streak of crappy hands, I'll wait for position and throw out a bluff. Take the pot, or if I have a caller, I usually take the pot on my c-bet.
- specific case-by-case reads. Like: I sit down at a new table. Guy raises, I call with 66. Flop all low cards, he throws a raise instantly. I'm thinking: c-bet. (he's likely holding big cards there) Let's find out. So I reraise. He calls it. Turn is a blank. He checks. Now I know he has nothing. Throw a big raise and take the pot. Up $2 right off the bat.
- sometimes I'll run into bad luck, like a bad beat, or an unfortunate turn of events, like I'm going strong on my QQ, but the other guy who only called is actually packing AA. These things happen I guess.. keep looking at the long term.
- On the other hand, if *I* run into a situation like that, I'll make a huge profit too.
- etc

But anyway.. if averaging $4/hour per table at 6max ring games is "good", then I think I already got this 10NL thing down. Ok, that $17 I made last hour is pretty big, but I figure it's nothing to get too happy about, since it's a buffer to offset negative variance in the future. Now simply play enough to build a BR. Probably worth it to start multi-tabling too. It's already becoming more and more routine.. meaning I can make split-second decisions on intuition which I needed to think hard about before. So if I run at $4/h per table in the long run.. playing 3 tables at once puts this at $12/h. I like that

/jack out

I recommend playing at least a few thousand hands before starting to multitable. Its amazing how adding just 1 more table can confuse the hell out of you when you arent used to it.

Originally Posted by Pelion

I recommend playing at least a few thousand hands before starting to multitable. Its amazing how adding just 1 more table can confuse the hell out of you when you arent used to it.

Yeah I know.. but I already multi-tabled on saturday for a couple of hours and made $20 in total so I think I can handle it. Somewhat atleast. I think I'm now gonna play another hour at 2 tables, see how it goes.

How many hours / hands have you played in total? Get pokertracker or something, play 10k hands, then you can start looking at your winrate.

multitabling is great for making you play tight. You are going to have a hard time though without reads, since your casino isn't compatible with poker tracker. Once you get your BR up to 500 I would recommend you go to Party Poker immediately.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by Pelion

I recommend playing at least a few thousand hands before starting to multitable. Its amazing how adding just 1 more table can confuse the hell out of you when you arent used to it.

Yeah I know.. but I already multi-tabled on saturday for a couple of hours and made $20 in total so I think I can handle it. Somewhat atleast. I think I'm now gonna play another hour at 2 tables, see how it goes.

Stop being results oriented. Its not about how much you made its about how well you played. If you managed to add a table and still play well then stick at it. If you got confused and ended up sucking out on a rocks preflop allin because you didnt realise he was only reraising KK then maybe you arent ready yet.

Originally Posted by sandstorm

How many hours / hands have you played in total? Get pokertracker or something, play 10k hands, then you can start looking at your winrate.

Well, only been playing poker for 2 weeks, online for 1 week. (before that I barely knew what a "flush" was) So let's say at 4h/day (high estimate) that would be around 30 hours. So that's probably 25k hands if I mediate between the MTTs and the 6max rings I've played.

Originally Posted by Renton

Once you get your BR up to 500 I would recommend you go to Party Poker immediately.

I think I will do that. Your advise has generally been worthwile hehe . But I live in Belgium and have no credit card.. I hope an international money transfer is possible at Party Poker? And that the banks won't take a huge cut in that case?

Originally Posted by Pelion

Stop being results oriented. Its not about how much you made its about how well you played. If you managed to add a table and still play well then stick at it. If you got confused and ended up sucking out on a rocks preflop allin because you didnt realise he was only reraising KK then maybe you arent ready yet.

Played an hour on 2 tables at 10NL. Made a clean $40. That's $20 per table per hour. Ok, this HAS to be positive variance otherwise I wouldn't need a job anymore ever, lol. A definite conclusion is that I'm probably up for 2 tables lol

But really, I'm a lot less results-oriented since I put things in perspective (as of today, that is, lol).. meaning I could stay with this "you win some, you lose some, if in the long run you'll win more than you lose you're going good" which allowed me to stay focused even when facing major raises. These were my biggest profits in the last hour.

Ok, so I'm up $67 in two hours play. Now to make sure I don't let this get to my head lol.. which is my biggest problem. All in all it's reassuring since it has put my BR on the safe side again.. so these winnings can 'catch' some bad streaks and still allow me to stay on a decent bb/100 on the whole.

One more required reading, it's the Newbie Circle of Death. Read this so we don't have to rename it the Flemish Circle of Death LOL

ya its funny how well we always do at the start of a new adventure, only to come crashing down.

Every time I have made a new endeavor in poker, I have had this huge windfall of cash and been over the moon, only to realize that it will never be this good again.

This is probably a lot like smoking crack for the first time.

It was one of the first things I read after I found FTR

I agree with Renton - its amazing how things go well at the start, then "normalize".

I played 3k hands of 2nl at 26bb/100 before moving up to 5nl. Despite no difference in the skill level of the other players, I crashed the first 1000 hands there. Now I'm approaching 2k hands and I've only just managed to drag 5nl into positive territory, I think I'm on 4bb/100 but it's heading in the right direction.

Lesson learned = don't focus on session results, focus on playing ABC poker and not making stupid mistakes ... then then BB/hr will take care of itself in the long run.

Win rate is more of a function of table/seat selection and running good than it is of skill.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Win rate is more of a function of table/seat selection and running good than it is of skill.

Table/seat selection is a skill.

And once you get up to a large enough number of hands for it to mean much you should be getting around the right numbers of hands / making draws etc etc etc that you expect.

Ill agree though that just a simple KK > AA with full stacks can change your winrate pretty drastically until you get alot of hands in.

I am always confused by the "too small a sample size" comment. What exactly constitutes a good sample? I agree that 3K is too small, but what about 10K? I would think most things would average out by then. I know that doesn't constitute "long term", and that if you look at specific examples like number of AA hands out of a 10K sample, you don't get a high enough sample (ie I have 52 AA hands out of 12K).

But can't you get a feel for where your game is headed after 10K hands?

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

But can't you get a feel for where your game is headed after 10K hands?

Yes, generally. But, you can run good or run bad for 10k easy. I wouldn't guess that you could get a very accurate account of how well you play individual hands until around 50k or so.

Just think about it. In 10k hands you get AA approx. 45 times. So, on average, you get AA in each position about 5 times. So don't you need more than 5 examples to tell how well you play AA in the big blind? You'd probably need at least 25 examples, and even then.

What I am getting at is that PT stats are never going to tell the whole story for you, especially for no limit. The only way you can know how well you play is to show hands to people who play better, like Fnord, and get their seal of approval.

Yeah, agreed on the individual hands example (much like the one I gave). More or less was looking big picture...

Just to give you an idea of how little 10k tells, I have logged 20000 hands in to PT since I reformatted my computer. Variance has been such that KQs is my second most profitable hand, and AQo is my third. Obv. AA is #1, but theoretically, in the long run it should be AA, KK, QQ, AK, and JJ.

Statistically speaking, 10k is already a large enough set to draw good conclusions. You will reach the "exact odds" only at infinity, but 10k should be a good approximation of the real deal.

That being said, in my case as an example, played roughly 25k hands.. but I don't think I can draw any conclusions, because I have been largely learning how to play the game throughout these 25k hands. So my playstyle, skill, emotional state etc has varied too much to draw any sort of conclusions. Also, have been both MTT and 6max, which play vastly different.

But if your game has stabilized, 10k should give you a good idea, statistically speaking.

10k will give you a good idea of somethings but not of others. 10k gives a good idea of if you are beating the game and roughly how well but to give a winrate to within 1BB/100 is going to take a fair bit more than 10K hands.


10k hands is nowhere near enough to tell you if 67s on the button is a winning hand, but it will tell you if suited connectors (as a range) are worth playing in late position.

Basically the more specific you get the more hands you need. . . and 10k isnt alot.

Originally Posted by Pelion

10k will give you a good idea of somethings but not of others. 10k gives a good idea of if you are beating the game and roughly how well but to give a winrate to within 1BB/100 is going to take a fair bit more than 10K hands.

So there we are in perfect agreement Pelion

Also I think the timespan in which you play your 10k should be considered. If you force 10k hands in two days, it'll be less representational of your long term potential than if it takes two weeks. Because you might be on an unusual "roll" or way too tense and play under your potential if you just look at 2 days. But 2 weeks should average this out more too.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Also I think the timespan in which you play your 10k should be considered. If you force 10k hands in two days, it'll be less representational of your long term potential than if it takes two weeks. Because you might be on an unusual "roll" or way too tense and play under your potential if you just look at 2 days. But 2 weeks should average this out more too.

Statistically speaking, a sample size is a sample size, 2 days for 10k hands [which would be ridiculous, something like 8-tabling 6max for 6 hours a day] or 1 year for 10k hands and you can still have the same statistical variance.

Anyways though, on a sidenote at lower limits [ie. $25NL and down] is seat/table selection that important? I know in any case it will help, but if Im playing $10nl at party, should I really be worried about where I am sitting?

Originally Posted by andy-akb

Statistically speaking, a sample size is a sample size, 2 days for 10k hands [which would be ridiculous, something like 8-tabling 6max for 6 hours a day] or 1 year for 10k hands and you can still have the same statistical variance.

I think renton had to make like 10k (or 15k) hands in 3 days or something, so it's possible

But anyway, statistically speaking, in this specific case, if you would be looking at card drops, indeed the time period would not matter at all. If you are looking at win rates and the likes however, a short timespan is not enough to average over your emotional state swings.

Like, if you're a chronic depressive, sampling over those 2 days per month you feel good and extrapolating that to "always" is bogus. Ofcourse that's an extreme example, but that is to illustrate a point.

Take it from an emotionally unstable guy like me that this matters When I'm in the zone, I can perform really well at the things I do, be it womanizing or playing strategy games. But I'm fickle so when I break down, I can't do well at anything.

Anyways though, on a sidenote at lower limits [ie. $25NL and down] is seat/table selection that important? I know in any case it will help, but if Im playing $10nl at party, should I really be worried about where I am sitting?

Dunno, have never done "no" table selection. Always pick the one with the highest showdown percentage, and if there are similar ones, highest average pot between those. And at 6max I don't have the luxury of seat selection. (I go into 5/6 tables) Ofcourse you want the aggressive guy with the big stack to be on your right and the passive guy with no cash on your left, but I haven't found this to be too big of a deal.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Win rate is more of a function of table/seat selection and running good than it is of skill.

Is there a (good) thread on this subject?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=19103

Tnks chard. I should be browsing the limit forum more often

Originally Posted by jackvance

I think renton had to make like 10k (or 15k) hands in 3 days or something, so it's possible

6-tabling Full-ring

6 tables*(60 Hands/Hour)= 360 Hands/Hour.

10000/360= 28 Hours

Thats more than I play in a normal week. I had to make a bit of an exception this past week because of the stringent time limit for the Party reload bonus. On top of that you probably shouldn't be playing more than 1-3 tables until you get the hang of it.

Originally Posted by Pelion

10k will give you a good idea of somethings but not of others. 10k gives a good idea of if you are beating the game and roughly how well but to give a winrate to within 1BB/100 is going to take a fair bit more than 10K hands.


10k hands is nowhere near enough to tell you if 67s on the button is a winning hand, but it will tell you if suited connectors (as a range) are worth playing in late position.

Basically the more specific you get the more hands you need. . . and 10k isnt alot.

No it won't. You greatly underestimate the variance in this game. A big long term winner can easily show losing stats over 10k hands

6 tables.. that's crazy. I can manage 2 but I am pretty sure 3 would be over the top for me at this point.

Well, only been playing poker for 2 weeks, online for 1 week. (before that I barely knew what a "flush" was) So let's say at 4h/day (high estimate) that would be around 30 hours. So that's probably 25k hands if I mediate between the MTTs and the 6max rings I've played.

25k hands in 30 hours

I guess you 10-table 6-max then?

Woops, that should be 2.5k ofcourse