Here's my Math -- I'm looking for a little help.

In 9 handed play, there's 18 pocketed cards, so you would "expect" 4.5 of any one suit to be out there.

Given that the odds of the burn card being the suit are roughly .25, there's "9.5" cards of that suit remaining. So, if two come on the flop, there's roughly "7.5" cards left of that suit.

So, since you have 30 cards left, I assume the odds of catching a flush after a four-flop to be roughly 50%. Is this true?

Here's the hand that confuses me...

76,958,699 games 60.537 secs 1,271,267 games/sec

Board: Ac Ah Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 74.4460 % 74.45% 00.00% { As3s }
Hand 2: 25.5540 % 25.55% 00.00% { Kc7c }

The A3 has no draw, and can only be improved by another ace. And, even if make that ace a dead card, it really only moves the percentages a point or two. So -- given my math above how is this possible? H2 hits the flush and wins....but only has a 25% chance of doing so? Does this mean that the math just doesn't work out in real life? Or am I entering this incorrectly in poker stove?

Best,
EW