In the hand you posted I think you played it fine, but you cannot be sure you have 12 outs, you may have more or less
Yeah, he may have held 2 clubs or whatever, I know. He may have held 72 os (in which case I had way more than 12 outs) but the way I was taught is that no one knows what cards have been dealt/mucked/or sat at the bottom of the pile - hence you just do the maths as best as you can.

And I'm glad I played the hand correctly!




rather than make a concerted effort to learn (such as developing a full understanding of EV, or implied odds), you argue against what they're saying, either questioning their correctness or, worse, refusing to try and learn (the nonsense you keep spouting about "feel".
Biondino, sorry if you feel such a way but I have not argued or disagreed with any0ne in my time here. Like in the implied odds section, I may state "as I understand it...." and that is self explanatory. And I do understand implied odds - as my posts have shown (especially the latter ones that cover my learning system).

Therefore, I will take a guess that you haven't read all of my posts in any one section. For it's quite clear. Please correct me if I am wrong.

With regards to EV, I have indicated I have looked at EV and find it confusing and also that I believe, in terms of EV, that you don't need to work out the formula for each move (and a few others have said the same). Rather, I believe that you can get a feel as to how much you can extract. And to be honest, if I bet $50 yet the correct EV play would be to bet $70, I am not overly concerned.

If you go back over my posts you will note that, in the case of it not being essential to work out EV, I stated that I may be wrong and may well change my mind.

Similarly, with regards to implied odds, I stated that though I understand them, they will only get better in time and that I will probably stick to opt odds when I should consider the implied odds and vice versa.

Also, nowhere did I state that I can get a good "feel" for anything. Both my points on EV and implied odds illustrate this perfectly. In fact, part of the reason I can't perform EV or implied odds to perfection is that I don't know enough about my opponents as I haven't gained that much experience or insight.

So though you are right in that I lack the experience, you are merely mirroring what I have already said and you are contradicting nothing. And as for feel in both instances, I can only work with what I have got: be it 5,000, the 20,000+ I do have or 100,000 hands. Yes?

Whatever my instincts may be (bang on, so so or wildly inaccurate) they are all I have at any one time and WILL be honed more acute over time. And this is something Chopper and I have stated over and over. Repeatedly.

Therefore, it is not "nonsense" to talk about the "feel" I currently demonstrate. It may be a lot; it may be miniscule. But the simple fact of the matter is that I am working to the best I can with what I have got. So to derided as "spouting nonsense" is as unfair as it is incorrect.

The context that I used "feel" in is perfectly valid. Once again, you have misread and misunderstood. Or, worse still, maybe you only read snippets and are thus operating off far from the full facts. I don't know. You tell me.


So - you may honestly believe you have a good "feel" for how to play in certain circumstances
I don't believe I have a good anything with regards to feel. You made that up. Or misread. Either way, you're seeing what isn't there. I have never stated as such. All I have said is that I have a good understanding of the basic fundamentals. This was stated in my very first post at FTR.


but I PROMISE you you don't.
And I promise you, I don't.


At this stage of your career, you HAVE to concentrate on theory, on maths, on understanding the fundamentals of the game
I believe I've mentioned this already - both here, in other posts and in my very 1st post.


(and EV and implied odds are absolutely fundamentals, don't kid yourself they're optional)
I never for one minute - nor hinted - that odds are optional. Nor do I believe that I can bet any arbitrary amount. Just that, the EV formula confuse me. I am not good enough to even get a handle on what they would bet in any circumstance, and so - as we all have some form on EV within us (bet big on AA, bet small on 22) - I shall go by the experience (however little that may be) that I have gained thus far.

I also believe (and I have already stated that I may be wrong - but here it is again) that when you do get a good handle on your opponents then you can make +EV moves without conducting the various calculation such as "he will call $30 20% of the time, $10 100% of the time" etc.



THERE ARE NO SHORT CUTS IN POKER
Obviously. Never did I believe there were. never did I state as such.


I asusme you have good intentions with your post - and I thank you for it - but you are way off base on, well, pretty much everything that you have "understood" about me. And I have supplied (in this thread and every other) enough to make my reply here both valid and true.



ps: I am not here to start any flaming so don't perceive any on this reply. There is a difference between correcting and fighting.