I was in an MTT yesterday where my flush, straight and straight flush draw (12 outs) was bested by AA in an all in situation after the flop. I posted the hand for analysis in the MTT section.

And this got me thinking.

The 12 outs gave me approximate odds of 49% and a coin flip scenario after being priced in. If that straight had been open ended then I would have had 15 outs after the flop and that equates to roughly a 60% chance of winning the hand. In fact, I read that if you have 15+ outs, you should go all in regardless.

So if I have a 60% chance of winning, then that means AA has just a 40% chance of success. But even though the maths adds up, and tallies with the calculations you see on TV and stuff, I just can't see how AA can be such an underdog in this situation.