I'm really not disagreeing about the move to fold (I should have made that more clear). At higher limits, chances are that at least 1 of the 3 "check to raisers" is probably going to come out firing hard. Most medium limit games (esp. 15/30, esp. at the Bellagio) are very, very aggressive.

I just think that the author has a grievous mathematical error in his analysis. Gutshots simply aren't 11-1 dogs. They are, according to FTR pot odds charts, a 16.5% to win the hand with 4 outs. This translates to 5-1 equity. (i.e. AA is going to win 83% of the time heads up against a gutshot on this flop). Pokerstove bumped this 16.5% equity up to 23% I think because of the backdoor flush. Clearly, this hand is stronger heads-up than the author thinks.

Folding is correct here for billions of reasons. However, if you could see the hole cards of the 3 players between you and "the raiser," knowing they would fold, you would be making a mathematical mistake (a purely mathematical mistake) by folding.

God, knowing that a backdoor-flush + gutshot has this kind of equity....it makes me feel like holdem is a crapshoot.