Quick Stat Check Up

So I've finally completed 10K hands since getting back into cards. 12 sessions, 10 won 2 lost. Any comments welcome since i'm relatively inept at reading stats in detail. Hands are spread 50/50 between FR and 6-max, though i'll be sticking to 6max in future as it seems to have more donators than FR.

Will say that i think i'm doing worse that i should be, I can highlight hands that i screwed up that cost a total of around 3-4 buyins all together so i feel like a couldve done closed to 15bb/100. Does make me realise how big a sample is required though, as this is the first time i've kept a database properly and I had to LOL when i read that so far I've won ~70$ with KK and ~$4 with AA.

My most costly leaks that i'm aware of have been bad calls with 1 pair hands and bad bluffs, usually as double barrel cbets or turn raises. These are large chunks though and i'm consciously eliminating them. I would like to know what I can change to pick up small amounts here and there though. From what i read I can be a bit more loose and aggressive at 6max but i feel like with the texture of the games im playing that would land me in trouble. Seems more profitable to play tighter against all the stations i'm running into..

Is this 10nl? Looks like you're running well overall. Perhaps call a little less, play a tad tighter from the blinds and looser/more aggressive from the button. Your 3bet is fairly the same across the board, so maybe 3bet/bluff more in the right situations. Everything looks pretty good though, and you're obviously playing a winning style.

yes sorry, 10NL..

thanks, your probably right about the 3bet stats. I think i've likely been over doing the blind defense a bit.

my sb is fairly loose because i've been getting away with stealing the bb with atc's at alot of tables.

I'm sure i have leaks, a lot of my profit has come from really bad villains and i dont know if i'm going to see the same level of donkishness at 25NL. But i suppose if thats the case I will adjust and steal more pots to make money, or if not continue to stack terrible players. I'm keen to move up, but need additional funds first which i cant really just throw into my account myself right now.

With a win rate of 10.91bb/100 it shouldn't take you long to build up your account.

.update - showed this graph to a colleage today. He immediately offered me a stake. played first session at 25NL tonight. 1300 hands, players were "LOLOLOL BAD" ..+$63

key difference was the big jump in aggression. Most villains were very 3bet happy and were loose fish. $$$

definately had to make an adjustment from my style at 10NL. I feel like there was a lot of opportunities to flat preflop vs fish at 10NL with fit/fold hands. which is why I have stats of ~16/10. That kind of play wouldve likely bled me dry tonight. ran 17/14 and definately think that any passive play is a big no no. The players were terrible but their hyper aggression wouldve seen me folding so many flops and burning money, where as the 10NL fish were transparent and i could often steal from them in those situations anyway.

HUD will come into greater use now, accurately identifying players that can be 3bet bluffed often will be a fair chunk of winrate i think.

Congrats on the shot at 25nl.

Prolly the only thing that I could recommend about your stats is your EP ranges.
It's the only position that you have less than 50% W$SD. What's your range for those positions?

you are running absurdly hot as illustrated by your w$wsd

Man that 3bet stat looks low.

But yeah bikes said what I was about to say. You're probably fine but don't get cocky.

Originally Posted by bikes

you are running absurdly hot as illustrated by your w$wsd

I'm probably misinterpreting the stat but I thought a W$SD stat of 58% would mean you are winning the money 58% of the time you make it to show down. Is that correct?

What would be a more normal W$WSD figure?

i would like to query whether there is a difference between w$sd and w$wsd and second the question of what it should be long term..

I figured that i'm either running hot or the 10NL villains suck more than some people realise. Its a tough thing to analyse because i don't think you can put a stat on the frequency of stupid villains. At 10NL I've been paid off by atrocious hands, most of my all ins were in 90%+ equity situations so i feel like i shouldn't expect my winnings to slow down that much unless i run into different players. Case in point, on sunday I was paid off half a buyin on the river by J high after triple barreling with a set of K's. Obviously there's no cockiness though, I always approach poker theorems with caution, and would assume that bikes/kmind have a much better clue about longterm results than me.

kmind, as far as 3bet stat, I agree, game texture dependent though. I didnt feel comfortable 3 betting much more frequently than that at 10NL. At 25NL last night my 3bet stat ran at 6% though, and i'd have felt stupid running any lower because i'd have been walked all over.

constantly running into 90%+ equity situations is also a form of running hot.

Originally Posted by kmind

Man that 3bet stat looks low

What would you be expecting to see here, kmind?

I think mine 3Bet % is similarly low, and Fold to 3Bet % horribly high, so would appreciate and advice on plugging this leak.

hang on...found this:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...he-163171.html

more good stuff...

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

constantly running into 90%+ equity situations is also a form of running hot.

yes i suppose it is..

though i've always considered a hot run to be hitting good cards consistently for a period of time and not being drawn out upon at all. However, in this selection of 10K hands, I didnt hit an outrageous amount of good hands, its just that my good hands ran into fools that called with junk. Likewise I hit slightly more than my share of AA, but got next to no action at all except for 1 preflop AI vs KK which I lost.

I also don't feel like i would stop running into fools. They are consistent, especially if you table select. And i think my cards could've run A LOT hotter.

No doubt time will tell, i certainly feel like i'm running hot after the session at 25NL, since my rate bumped up to just over 12bb/100 overall :P ..cant wait to have a better clue though.. gotta get into the grind.

Originally Posted by scott_owen

I also don't feel like i would stop running into fools. They are consistent, especially if you table select. .

Scott can you elaborate on this. I tried selecting profitable tables (IE looking for high VPIP ratios, high pot size) the number of people waiting in line is 4+. Typically by the time I get in the dynamic had shifted. The fish have been bled dry and those remaining are tight regs who all play 12/10 - 6/6 style. I become the replacement fish!

As a result, I've switched to joining random tables, watching the action for a few rotations & trying not to get my stack in up to my eyeballs until I have some reads or the nuts. Once I see someone who's loose and calling down with middle pair or A high I stick around & pray nobody takes his stack first.

Is there a better way to select a table?

Originally Posted by Moradis

Is there a better way to select a table?

This from the mighty Nakamura:-

Originally Posted by Nakamura

Most poker sites allow you to take notes and colour-code players. On PS there are 8 colours, so I think my ranking system goes something like this.

Red = Deadly reg
Orange = Ordinary reg
Yellow = Meh reg
Dark Blue = Good, not reg
Light Blue = Bad reg
Purple = Spazzy reg
Pink = Spazzy whale
Green = Fish

The answer you are looking for is that you can't tell if players are regulars until you play a couple of sessions. I have a very good visual memory so I can usually identify when I've played players before. Your HUD will then confirm how many hands you have a particular player. You can make certain assumptions like if you see a player on most days, he's obviously a reg. If you have 500 hands on a player, he's more than likely a reg. Most regs tend to fall into the 10/8 - 15/12 VPIP/PRF during the first two levels. If I see those figures over small sample sizes, I usually make an assumption that they generally know what they are doing and it's ok to assume they are a regular or are at least semi-competent until you see otherwise.

If I deem a player to be a reg, I usually tag him orange him. If I think he's very good, he gets the red tag eventually. If I see him do something dumb, he'll get downgraded to yellow, light-blue or purple depending on his mistakes and the frequency with which he makes them. Occasionally I'll move players up a bracket as mistakes can be mis-clicks or an infrequent error.

Oh, and you can see the colour-coding in the PS lobby, which is really handy. I avoid games with more than 1 red, orange or yellow player.

I've adopted this process; hope it helps you too...

@moradis

My method isnt complicated, though i would probably suggest a few places where i may have an advantage over you.

I'm seeing the crazy at 6max, not FR. Reasoning? 6/6 -10/12 nits get eaten by blinds at 6max and either leave or loosen up. Further, they suck at playing a looser style so when they do hang around they spew.

at FR you maybe get 2 really bad fish, several nits and a chunk of bad regs.. maybe 1 decent player.. the fish make up 20% of the table, everyone else you have to beat with a stick to make alot of money out of.

at 6max, the bad regs are worse and i categorise them as really bad fish, which means theres been me, 3-4 really bad fish, one semi ok reg. so now the fish make up 60-70% of the table.

____

getting to the good tables -
I run the pokerstars filter and view only tables with vip and players per pot above 20, and try to get in on ones close to or above 30.

I have table ninja so my seating, buyins, rebuys, waiting lists, closing tables, viewing the lobby is all done lightning fast.. TN also handles default be sizing for the majority of situations, as well as rearranging tables, handling of general annoyances and auto click time bank etc.. so i pretty efficiently handle 6 tables of 6max and the lobby with time to spare.

lastly, i figure out quickly if a table/seat sucks and i leave. but to be honest, the players turn over fairly quickly at this level, so sucky tables get better just like good tables begin to suck sometimes... also, in the event that i run into a table of nits at 6max it becomes a blind steal and cbet extravaganza which quickly opens them up into loose spaz. or gets them off the table.. at FR they'll hang around because they can.

Thanks for this Scott. I'll look at 6 max for a change. I've been FR for my whole time. I see exactly what you mean about % of poor players. I usually get 1 - 2 fish at a FR table but I can see how a tighter / better player would profit more 6 max as the loose guys would gravitate there. I doubt I'll run into the 8/6 set miner regulars I see on FR!

Table ninja sounds interesting. I might be forking out for another program

Thanks for the tips

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

What would you be expecting to see here, kmind?

I think mine 3Bet % is similarly low, and Fold to 3Bet % horribly high, so would appreciate and advice on plugging this leak.

I'm not quite sure and I'm sure being FR and 10NL makes the stat ok but I can only imagine there's a ton of spots that are (more) +EV to 3bet if they fold too much OR if they call a lot pre but fold postflop. I'd check some hands where you could have 3bet (IP for now) and see if 3betting is +EV in a vacuum or if your read is that they fold too much postflop. I haven't studied/played poker since April 15 so I can't help you with creating calcs. (I use a EV calculator called CardrunnersEV). I'm lazy when it comes to math...

Originally Posted by Moradis

Thanks for this Scott. I'll look at 6 max for a change. I've been FR for my whole time. I see exactly what you mean about % of poor players. I usually get 1 - 2 fish at a FR table but I can see how a tighter / better player would profit more 6 max as the loose guys would gravitate there. I doubt I'll run into the 8/6 set miner regulars I see on FR!

Table ninja sounds interesting. I might be forking out for another program

Thanks for the tips

6max places more edge with the player that can read hands well and understands and uses position than does FR despite the importance being high in both games. So really focus on these skills, these are ofcourse the ones that make or break you long term and are harder to learn and master than the ones such as maths/probability and hand selection. This is everyone here says play FR first to learn, there's less focus on the harder concepts. Best of luck.

Table ninja has a 15 or 30 trial i believe so you dont have to invest unless you feel its worth while.

Originally Posted by scott_owen

6max places more edge with the player that can read hands well and understands and uses position than does FR despite the importance being high in both games. So really focus on these skills, these are ofcourse the ones that make or break you long term and are harder to learn and master than the ones such as maths/probability and hand selection. This is everyone here says play FR first to learn, there's less focus on the harder concepts. Best of luck.

Table ninja has a 15 or 30 trial i believe so you dont have to invest unless you feel its worth while.

I have checked out Ninja - I'll look into the trial when I have some time but will be travelling soon so don't want to waste the free trial on only a day.

Thanks for the tip on 6 max. If 6max is this soft normally I'm not going back to FR with the multi-tabling monsters!

I found the tables a lot softer. A post play hand review showed I was running hot over my 600 hands. I ended up 67bb / 100. I have never made so much money in a single session. I started $5nl but halfway moved up to $10nl and found the later had some better players but not that much better.

At least 1 fish (well fishier than me) every table but mostly 2 or 3. I found even the tight players tended to spew on middle pair hoping to hit their overcard. There were some ridiculous all in calls. I think the best was T7s preflop calling an all in... against A8o - I'll just stick to my game, play position and cards & see if I can make my goal bankroll by the end of the year (a holiday home for the family!).

It's possible another difference (for me) is there's no boredom. There's always action to watch rather than waiting for 7 people to count down the timer & click, fold. I only played 2 tables vs. normally 4 or 5 FR so focus & attention were there. Helped me SOO much on the reads.

edit: spelling