Question regarding one of spoons threads, maths help needed. Kinda long post i guess

[seven-deuce]

Ok my questions regarding this thread; http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ng-184969.html

I'm fine with calculating the breakeven fold % of a semi bluff this way;

Say it’s 25nl and the pot is $30 and we have $20 behind heads-up. If we shove our $20 and we think we’ll have 20% equity when we’re called, how often does Villain have to fold for it to be +EV? First, we’ll find the total pot size after Villain calls, and that’s $70. Second, we’ll find our equity’s percent of that pot, and 20% of $70 is $14. Now we subtract $14 from our bet size of $20 to get $6, which is our x value. To finish, our Villain’s fold % has to be greater than x/(x+P) for our semi-bluff to be +EV, which is 6/(6+30) here, or 1/6 = 16.7%.

But why does this EV formula not produce the same answer?;

EV = PF + E(1-F)(P+B) + (1-F)(1-E)(-B)


Reffering back to this thread http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ng-184969.html

The breakeven fold frequency for the question is 1.64/(1.64+20)=7.58%
easy enough but when i use the other formula it doesn't work unless i'v missed something but i don't think i have

Villain folds = 20x

Villain calls we win = (0.4418)(1-x)(110)

Villain calls we lose = (1-x)(0.5582)(90)

Sum these to get EV = 20x + (0.4418)(1-x)(110) + (1-x)(0.5582)(90)

Then set EV=0 to get how often villain needs to fold or is this wrong?

So 0 = 20x + (0.4418)(1-x)(110) + (1-x)(0.5582)(90)

then copy paste into that algebra solver and the answer is 1.25 villain can't fold 125% of the time.

I assumed this worked as spoonitnow set the EV equal to 0 in part 14 of his mathematics of EV thread and then plugged it into the algebra solver to find out how often villain must fold to be +EV.

I'v been reading this all morning and my head is fried, really would appreciate some help i can't stand it when i don't understand why something isn't working aaahhhh.

[Hoopy]

Hey man that formula is definitely right, for your example I got x = 1/6 as well.

0 = 30x + (0.2)(1-x)(50) + (1-x)(0.8)(-20)
0 = 30x + (1-x)(10-16)
0 = 30x - 6 + 6x
x = 1/6

Looking over your stuff this stands out.

Villain calls we lose = (1-x)(0.5582)(90)

Should be -90 in the brackets, try it again with that.

[seven-deuce]

Hey man that formula is definitely right, for your example I got x = 1/6 as well.

0 = 30x + (0.2)(1-x)(50) + (1-x)(0.8)(-20)
0 = 30x + (1-x)(10-16)
0 = 30x - 6 + 6x
x = 1/6

Looking over your stuff this stands out.

Should be -90 in the brackets, try it again with that.

Holy shit thanks man i literally racked my brains for over an hour over something so simple lol didn't wanna be a nuisance asking when i could work it out for myself but gave in, i redone it again and got 0.758% thanks i owe you one.

Thought i was going crazy for a bit.