QQ facing raise on drawy board against maniac, range check

[trilerian]

UTG is a bit of a maniac but over a small sample of hands, is playing 68/32 over 30 hands. I have seen him limp, then 4-bet A2o from UTG a couple of orbits ago. So definitely capable of bluffs pre, stands to reason he will bluff at the pot sometimes as well then. Anyways, I need a range and math check here and want to know if I should be jamming against this range.
JJ-77,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o
I have 46.5% equity against.
He only needs 28% to call a shove from me, and the worst hand in his range here (77) has 29%, so I think he calls 100% of the time. Doing the math I win 2.03 on average and am putting 1.84 at risk, so this seems +EV for about 9 1/2 bb's. Comments on range and math are more than welcome.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($4.96)
MP2 ($2.58)
CO ($4.70)
Button ($1.61)
SB ($4.96)
Hero (BB) ($2)
UTG ($2.91)
UTG+1 ($1.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
UTG bets $0.04, 4 folds, Button calls $0.04, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, UTG calls $0.12, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.37) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, UTG raises to $0.62, Hero?

[Outlaw]

I ship it here. There so much crap he will call with you are beating.

[Vinland]

OMG man add some hands to his range. A maniac is raising here with KT, AT, possibly middle pair w/ good kick, multiple FD's and SD's....
Just shove it and hope he calls. You should have plenty of equity against a chip masher here.

[trilerian]

I discount hands like AT, AJ, and really should be discounting most pp's here as well, cause most of the time maniacs are just shoving to a 3-bet pre. But KT is a good one that should be in there, and heck maybe even A9, A8, A7. The more I think about it, the more I realize how many truly junk hands can show up here, especially if villain thinks I am bluffing with AK.

[tomato paste carnage]

You are more than likely ahead of his range. Shove.

[surviva316]

maniacs aren't always shoving AT, AJ pre. i would definitely include those in his flop range.

[spoonitnow]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tjzw758oZrA

[bjsaust]

I'd give him a wider range, he'll turn up with some surprising stuff here. I'd add A7-AJ for sure.

[trilerian]

I'd give him a wider range, he'll turn up with some surprising stuff here. I'd add A7-AJ for sure.

To say the least, I was suprised. How often does a maniac show up with KK here?

[daven]

AJ/KJ/QJ/TJ/QK/AQ/AK/66-AA/A7/K7/AT/A9/A8/T9/98/87/76/etc.....

sometimes you gotta get some gamble going on